Monday, July 4, 2011

1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...

1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...


Report on
“One and a Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”
Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma





Ajita Pokhrel





Submitted to
Prof. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Kathmandu University School of Arts



7th June 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE NO
Acknowledgement
Table of contents
Abstract
Authorial Context 1
Summary of the paper 3
Subject paper Context 8
Theoretical Report 9
A. Demographic Transition Model 9
B. Population Growth Theory 11
C. Population Doubling Time 11
D. Malthus Theory 12
E. Boserup Theory 13
F. Population Pyramid 13
G. Canan Optimum Population Theory (OTB) 13
Analysis of the report 15
Multiple Theoretical Lenses 16
A. Relation with population theory 16
B. Relation with Natural resource theory 18
C. Relation with development theory 21
Judgment 24
Outside the box 25
Synthesis 28
Conclusion 30
References 31

















Abstract
The report on “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” is prepared by Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma for Ministry of Environment and population.
The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between the population, development and natural resources, which is also the main goal of our course itself. The other objective of this paper is to identify the different cause of rising population and analyze where Nepal is at demographic transition model. The effort has been also made to show how environment has degraded in Nepal as a result of population growth. To show both positive and negative linkages between population and environment; theory of Malthus and Boserup are also presented.
Likewise this paper also presents the summary of four different scenario of future population of Nepal presented in paper “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” and includes the criticism of demographic transition model.










Authorial Context
This chapter presents the brief introduction and information of two authors Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, of the paper “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”.
A. Shyam Thapa:
Shyam Thapa, PhD, is a Scientist with the Department of Reproductive Health and Research (RHR) at WHO headquarters in Geneva. He provides strategic, technical and management support for research in reproductive health particularly as regards user perspectives in family planning, young people's sexual and reproductive health and the prevention of unsafe abortion.
Before joining WHO, Thapa was the Director of Policy and Research for the Saving Newborn Lives (SNL) program of Save the Children US based in Washington, DC. In this position he was primarily responsible for the management, strategic development, implementation and technical support of community-based randomized control trials and operations research in newborn health and survival in 18 countries. Prior to that, he held various research and evaluation positions in reproductive health, youth and family planning with Family Health International (FHI) at both its Arlington, Virginia, and Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, offices in the US. On deputation from FHI, he served for several years as a resident technical advisor to the Government of Nepal, working with the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Population and Environment, the National Planning Commission and the USAID.
Thapa has over 20 years of experience in policy and program development, health systems research, program planning, knowledge and skills transfer and management, capacity-building, professional mentoring, teaching/training, research and evaluation in maternal and child health, family planning, youth and HIV/AIDS, and development and utilization of evidence base. He has presented at numerous seminars and conferences and also organized and led workshops and consultative events. He has authored or co-authored numerous articles and papers, book chapters and monographs.
B. Griffith Feeney :
Griffith Feeney was born in 1943. He received his Ph.D. in 1972 from the University of California, Berkeley. Currently he is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Program on Population in Honolulu, Hawaii. He has devised a number of techniques for making the best use of defective data













Table: Population size and Growth rate
Year Total population Pop change Growth Rate Doubling Time Analysis
1911 5,638,749 - - (Influenza )
1920 5,573,788 -64,961 -0.13 -
1930 5,532,574 41,214 -0.07 - Decline
1941 6,283,649 7,51,075 1.16 60
1952-54 8,256,625 19,72,976 2.27 31 High GR
1961 9,412,996 11,56,371 1.64 42
1971 11,555,983 21,42,987 2.05 34 Rapid fall in mortality only.
1981 15,022,839 34,66,856 2.62 26 Very H GR compare to 1991
1991 18,491,097 34,68,258 2.08 33
2001 23,151,423 2.25 32


Summary of the paper
The main objective of this paper is to examine the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepal. The fertility and mortality trends of Nepal reflect that it follows the general trend of demographic transition model. The mortality decline begins at early 1930s and there is decline in fertility rates during late 1960s and early 1990s.
Prior to 1961 only five population census was carried out in Nepal i.e. population census of 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941 and 1952-1954. Complete reports of the 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941, and 1952-1954 censuses were not published, only the data available is total population by sex. The table below shows the population growth rate data between 1911 and 2001.
According to above table the population of Nepal declined up to 1930 and then after population started to grow. However, the population of the country did not grow at a uniform rate. At the time of the latest census of 2001, Nepal’s population reached 23.1 million with annual average growth rate of 2.25 percent during the last decade 1991-2001. The various reasons for population decline in between 1911 to 1930 are Influenza, census conduction on abnormal period i.e. world war time. The rate of increase in the period 1941 to 1952/54 was improbably high in comparison with the earlier period. The population growth rate observed during the period 1971 to 1981 is found very high compared to 1981 to 1991 period. This may be attributed to the rapid fall in mortality without any corresponding fall in fertility

The above figure shows that the population has been increased between 1991 and 2001 from 46.7% to 48.4%in Terai, while it has declined from 45.5% to 44.3% in hill and it has also declined from 7.8% to 7.3% to mountain. This shows that the infrastructural facility, high fertile land and potential of economic activity has attract the people from other ecological zone to terrain which results increase in population in this area.
Likewise the population growth rate indicates that, it is also influenced by various factors such as the ecological zone, social factors like education, urban area and so on.

The above table shows that the infant mortality trend is higher in rural area as compared to urban area. IMR of urban area is declined to 50.1 from 61.1during 1996 and 2001. The table also indicates that the IMR is higher for illiterate people compared to educated people. IMR also varied according to development regions. The data of 2001 shows that IMR is higher in far western region and was found lowest in western development region.

Similarly the writer has presented the four different scenario of future population growth for Nepal which is summarized below;
I: continued slow decline
According to this scenario a continuation of the recent slow pace of fertility decline (0.45) children per women per decade over the past has results in total population of Nepal rising to over 100 million over the next century. The fertility decline will continue until replacement level, taken to be 2.1 children per women. The rate of fertility decline in Nepal is slow compared to rates of decline in Asia generally.
II: zero population growth from 2001
According to this model the fertility will fall to below one child per woman. In practical it is impossible to achieve zero population growth in short-term. To achieve zero population growth the fertility rates have to decline from 4.8 children per woman for1996-2000 to barely over 2 children per woman for 2001-2005, followed by a further decline to as low as 0.72child per woman for 2016-2020.
According to this model the future population of Nepal will reached between 40 and 60 million. The rapid decline in population results the tremendous fluctuations in the age distribution over the coming century.
III: smooth approach to zero growth
Unlike the too rapid decline of fertility in Scenario two, this model supports the idea of more rapid fertility decline. Base on this practice of fertility decline, the population of Nepal would reach to below 60 million. The rate of decline is faster than what Nepal has experienced in the past but comparatively low while comparing it with other Asian countries. The fertility decline base on his model will results No disruption of age distribution. It means those younger age groups are higher or greater than the older age group.


The above figure shows the trend of fertility decline and population growth in Nepal.

IV: More rapid fertility decline
This model implies the total fertility rates of 3.7 children per woman for 2001-2005, 2.8 children per woman for 2006-2010, and 2.2 children per woman for 2011-2015. This represents an average rate of decline of 1.8 children per woman per decade. With modest disruption in age distribution the Nepal population rises to 40 million. It can achieve only through reducing the family size and increasing the age of child bearing.






Subject Paper context
The demographic transition in Nepal shows that Nepal falls under stage two of demographic transition model where there birth rate is constant and mortality rate starts to decline. The establishment of health post and awareness program raised by government about importance of hygiene and proper diet has helped to reduce the mortality rate of Nepal.

Theoretical category
There is deep relation between the theory of population, natural resources and development. The high or low population growth has some link with the environmental degradation and the growth of economy, technology development.
Population dynamics, including growth rates, age structure, fertility and mortality, migration and more, influence every aspect of human, social and economic development.
In summary the paper deals with the fertility rate and the future population of Nepal, in four different scenarios. Hence it is directly associated with the population theory. The various kinds of demographic theory are discussed in this chapter.
A. Demographic transition model:
It is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The four different characteristics of demographic transition model are mentioned below:
1. Stage I
It is associated with pre Modern times, and is characterized by high birth and death rates (30-50 per thousand). Their approximate balance results in only very slow population and growth. Growth rates would have been less than 0.05%, resulting in long doubling times of the order of 1-5,000 yrs.
Death rates were very high at all times in this stage for a various reasons like lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure, infectious diseases such as influenza, scarlet fever, or plague, the lack of clean drinking water and efficient sewage disposal, and poor food hygiene; occasional food shortages and so on. Similarly reasons of high births are associated with high rate of infant mortality and lack of security of life.

2. Stage II
Stage two sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rates are constant or rises slightly. It represents the characteristics of early industrialized society. The decline in the death rate at this stage is due initially to two factors:
• First, improvements in food supply brought about by higher yields as agricultural practices were improved in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th.C.
• Second, there were significant improvements in public health that reduced mortality, particularly in childhood.
A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. The growth which is not due to an increase in fertility but to a decline in deaths results change in the age structure of the population.
3. Stage III
At this stage both Birth rate and death rate continues to fall which results in stabilization in population growth. This model represents characteristics of developed industrialized nations. The reasons for continuous decline in death rates at these stages are:
• Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society.
• Increasing female literacy
• Preference given to build the carrier of women.

4. Stage IV
At this stage both birth rate and death rate are low. It represents the characteristics of post industrial society.


5. Stage V
At these stage death rates is higher than the birth rates. The highly developed nation like Japan is facing this problem.

B. Population Growth Theory:
The rate of national Population growth is expressed as a percentage for each country, commonly between about 0.1% and 3% annually. There is two kind of population growth theory.
i. natural growth theory
Natural growth represents the births and deaths in a country's population and does not take into account migration.
ii. overall growth theory
The overall growth rate takes migration into account.
The growth rate of a country provides demographers and geographers with a good contemporary variable for current growth and for comparison between countries or regions. For most purposes, the overall growth rate is the more frequently utilized.

C. Population Doubling Time:
The growth rate can be used to determine a country or region or even the planet's "doubling time." It tells us how long it will take for a country's current population to double. This length of time is determined by dividing the growth rate into 70. The number 70 comes from the natural log of 2, which is .70.
The world's current (overall as well as natural) growth rate is about 1.3%, representing a doubling time of 54 years. We can expect the world's population of 6 billion to become 12 billion by 2054 if current growth continues. The world's growth rate peaked in the 1960s at 2% and a doubling time of 35 years
Most European countries have low growth rates. In the United Kingdom, the rate is 0.2%, in Germany its 0.3%, and in France, 0.4%. German and other European countries' natural growth rate is actually negative (on average, women in Germany give birth to 1.5 children, which is below the number to yield zero population growth, approximately 2.1 children). Germany's natural growth rate of -0.1 cannot be used to determine doubling time because the population is actually shrinking in size. It's immigration that brings Germany's overall growth rate up to 0.3%, with a doubling time of about 233 years).
Many developing Nations like Asian and African countries have high growth rates. Afghanistan has a current growth rate of 3.5%, representing a doubling time of 20 years. If population growth continued at the same rate for the following century, by 2200 Afghanistan's population would be 26.6 billion, which is more than four times the current world population. In Nepal with the growth rate of 2.1% it would take 25 years for doubling.
The population growth and doubling time of high developed and developing nation’s shows that it follow the characteristics of demographic transition model. The negative growth rate of Germany a developed nation s falls under the fifth stage where death rate is higher than the birth rate. The country like Nepal and Afghanistan falls under second stage where birth rate is very high and hence the population growth rate is too high.

D. Malthus theory:
The essay on the principle of population an important work of Malthus is a landmark in the history of population studies. The theory argue that the tendency of the population to grow faster in relation to its means of subsistence has led to human misery and placed several obstacles in the path of human progress.
In Malthusian theory he has stated that the population grows in a geometric ration and the other means of subsistence in arithmetic whose ultimate end would be poverty. His theory stated that there would be food shortage due to population growth. To minimize the risk of food insecurity people start deforestation and cultivate on those land.

E. Boserup theory
Boserup is also known as the critiques of Malthus theory. According to her theory population growth always do not have negative consequences. In Boserup’s theory agricultural methods depend on the size of the population. She argued that in times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the excess population will not die as mentioned in Malthus theory. Instead in those times of pressure, people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc. It means that for survival and to meet the increasing demand of food the people identify new technology and shift from traditional agricultural practices which were mainly based on hand tools to the modern farming system.
Hence this theory clearly stated that there exist the positive relation between population and development. To achieve the economic growth and to shift from traditional agriculture to industrial nations there must be population growth
F. Population pyramid:
A Population Pyramid is a graph that shows a country’s population by age and gender. The shape of the pyramid tells us about a country’s growth rate and dependency ratio. Population pyramids have the youngest age cohort at the bottom and females on one side and males on the other. Each age-gender group is represented as a % of the total population or in thousands of people.
Under the fertility decline ratio of scenario two there would be distortion in age distribution. Hence there would be longer bar at the top of pyramid as the result of decline in fertility rate and increase in life expectancy of people.
G. Canan Optimum population theory
According to Canan the propounded of this theory population must grow up to certain desired level after which further growth is harmful. The two important principles of this theory are:
1. when there is an increase in population than the ratio between the total population and the working population remains almost constant.
2. When at a point of time the population of a country increases the natural resources capital and technical knowhow do not change with the result that after sometime the law of diminishing returns begins to operate. This law provides that for maximum production all the sources of production should be combined in that proper ratio than it shall not be possible to have maximum production.
This theory supports the idea of both the Malthus and Boserup. According this theory the growth of population is necessary at the beginning phase of development activity. But when development reaches to its height the overpopulation create the problem as mentioned by the Malthus theory of population. It leads the problem of environmental crisis.

Analysis of the report
The distortion of age as results of rapid fertility decline will have negative impacts on the economic and social growth of the nation. So it is difficult to answer which scenario is more applicable or desirable in case on developing nations like Nepal.


3. 7

Here in this case we chose the scenario four as more appropriate as we can see in above figure that there is less age distortion caused by this model which can be tolerated by the society. Relatively smaller number of children and the relatively larger number of persons at working age during the first several decades might be salutary, and the overhang of older persons in the more distant future is manageable.
At the current slow rate of fertility rate decline in Nepal population will increase to hundred million over this century.




Multiple Theoretical Lenses Analysis
The main objective of our course is to enhance the knowledge and understanding of the important relationships between population, development and development.
We cannot study the theory of development, population and natural resources in isolation. They are strongly connected with each other. The change in one factor like increase in population has great impact in environment and strong relation with economic and social development.
The main aim of this section is to analyze and examine whether or not there is a relationship between the concepts developed by writer on “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” with different theory of population, natural resources and environment. This chapter is divided into three sections. Where the first part deal with the population theory, second with natural resources theory and a final section on development theory.
A. Relation with population theory:
The type of linkage between the concepts developed by author on the report with the population theory has almost covered in the theoretical chapter of this report. The few theory and concepts on population which has indirect relation with this chapter is discussed here.
I. The Population Bomb
The Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife in 1968. While analyzing the population bomb theory it matched with idea of Malthus. He too emphasized in the need of population control. In his book he shows the inverse relation between the population growth and food security. It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth. It alerted people to the importance of environmental issues and brought human numbers into the debate on the human future.
Ehrlich argues that as the existing population was not being fed adequately, and it was growing increasing rapidly it was unreasonable to expect sufficient improvements in food production to feed everyone. He further argued that the growing population placed increasing strains on all aspects of the natural world.
In answer to the question, "what needs to be done?" he wrote, "We must rapidly bring the world population under control, reducing the growth rate to zero or making it negative. Conscious regulation of human numbers must be achieved. Simultaneously we must, at least temporarily, greatly increase our food production
He made the future prediction where he stated that nothing can prevent famines in which hundreds of millions of people will die during the 1970s, and that there would be a substantial increase in the world death rate. Although many lives could be saved through dramatic action, it was already too late to prevent a substantial increase in the global death rate. However, in reality the global death rate has continued to decline substantially since then, from 13/1000 in 1965–74 to 10/1000 from 1985–1990. Meanwhile the population of the world has more than doubled, while calories consumed/people have increased 24%.
The failure of his theory forced us to look at the theory of Boserup once again. Why people don’t die due to starvation though the population is increasing. Is it really supporting the idea of Boserup, where she argued that for the survival people change the technology and adopts the modern technology which helps to increase the agricultural products and transfer the society from traditional to modern? The answer is yes.
II. Political ecology:
In critiques of population bomb and Malthus theory the Nobel Prize, Amartya Sen winner put forward the new idea and relationship between population and food security. In his view the food security is not the problem caused by population growth. The root cause of famine has been political instability. He argued that nations with democracy and a free press have virtually never suffered from extended famines. However, most epidemiologists, public health physicians and demographers identify corruption as the chief cause of malnutrition, not "overpopulation".
III. Neo-Malthusianism theory
It also supports the idea of Malthus theory. In Malthus theory there has been shown the direct relationship between the environmental degradation and increasing population. But in Neo-Malthusianism theory the direct relationship between increase in population and income has shown. As a result people have cash in hand they again start to demand the high class luxurious goods which ultimately force in environmental degradation. Example As we all know the income of people of Kathmandu is higher to compare that of rural area. The high income of this urban group results in demand for more housing home, vehicle to travel, land to dispose daily waste. Hence we can say there is positive relationship between the income and the land degradation in case of Nepal.

B. Relation with Natural resources theory:
This section deals with the various concepts and theory such as IPAT, Himalayan degradation theory, agricultural biodiversity, carbon dioxide rise and climate change (paper by Surendra P. Singh) and sustainable development.
I. IPAT
IPAT is an accounting identity stating that environmental impact (I) is the product of three terms: 1) population (P); 2) affluence (A); and 3) technology (T). It is stated I = P x A x T or I=PAT. Generally credited to ecologist Paul Ehrlich, the IPAT formulation arose from a dispute in the early 1970s among the most prominent environmental thinkers of the day about the sources of environmental impact.
We know that there will be rise in future population between 40 million to 100 million during next century under four different scenarios. The concept of IPAT portrays the environmental impact caused by the increasing population, affluence and technology.
As we have already known that technology will be enhanced with the growth in population to meet there increasing demands. This positive relation between technology and population growth have negative impacts on the environment. The innovation of new technology further helps to make good earnings. The increasing wealth increases the demand of luxurious good such as more vehicles, concrete buildings, furniture and so on which ultimately leads to degradation of environment.
II. Himalayan degradation theory:
Similarly the “Theory of Himalayan degradation” a thesis reports by Guthman. He supports the theory of Malthus. He has also mentioned that there is negative relationship between environment and population. Or we can also state it as, with rise population the problem associated with environment will also increased. As mentioned in the report the main cause of land degradation is increasing population. He also shows the several other impacts caused by population growth on environment such as soil erosion, landslides, hydrological disruptions, deforestation, climate change, air pollution, water pollution and so on.
So like on the report on “One and Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”, the Himalayan degradation theory also address the needs of population control through various mechanism and the importance of environmental and natural resource conservation from future perspective.
III. Carbon Dioxide Rise and Climate Change
The paper by Surendra P. Singh on Carbon Dioxide and Climate change, talks about the pressure and negative impact as a result of population. Since it talks about the need to conserve the natural resources it has indirect relation with the demographic transition theory.
Due to climate change there is negative impacts on various sector like tourism, agriculture, melting of ice, disturbance in marine ecosystem and so on. To save the community and nations from the problem of food insecurity the paper state that the people adopts the new kind of agricultural practices and crop the new variety which will adopt and yield more with the changing climate.
IV. Sustainable development
Through realizing the cause of growing population on environment at present many development workers has emphasized the concept of sustainable development. The general definition of sustainable development is that natural resources should be used and consume in such a way that it meets the present needs without compromising the needs of future generations.
The sustainable development debate is based on the assumption that societies need to manage three types of capital i.e. economic, social, and natural. As it talks about the control of unmanageable and haphazard’s activity in the name of development. We can report not only present population but future will too depends on environment or natural resources. We must control our activity that have direct negative impacts on environment and follow the practice which fulfill the need of present population along with the population control.

Hence sustainable development concepts put human population at the core of development agenda to achieve the human wellbeing while preserving the quality of environment. This types of development practices helps to understand how the human population and society interact with the natural environment. Despite the lots of criticism this concept of sustainable development was identified as the means to reduce the negative impacts of development activity on environment and as a means to achieve environmental balance in Nepal.

V. Agricultural Biodiversity
Agriculture, the art, science and business of raising livestock and cultivating soil to produce crops, is totally dependent on genes, species, and ecosystems and the variability inherent in them. This variability, known as biological diversity provides agriculture with the capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

The agricultural biodiversity theory on natural resources is also linked with population theory. This theory follows the similar idea of Malthus about population growth and food insecurity. In detail it talks about how to increase the agricultural products to meet the need of growing population.
Human population is projected to grow from a little over 6 billion today to over 8 billion by 2030, an increase of about a third, with another two to four billion to come in the subsequent 50 years. But food demand may grow even faster, as a result of growing urbanization, rising incomes, and greater efforts to reduce hunger among the over 800 million people currently under-nourished (UN Millennium Project, 2005). Global consumption of livestock products is predicted to more than double from about 300 million metric tons in 1993 to over 650 million tons in 2020
Hence to meet this demand there should be change in agricultural practices and adopt the new technology and inputs like fertilizer, irrigation facility, improved seed and so on. Agricultural biodiversity is not only the result of human activity but human life is dependent on it not just for the immediate provision of food and other good.

C. Relation with development theory:
There are various theories on development concepts like Rostow five stages of development, modernization theory, women in development, gender and development.
I. Rostow five stages of development:
This theory is about the five different stages of development and talks about how the country transform from the traditional to high mass consumption society. The five stages present in this theory area:
• Stage 1 Traditional Society - The economy is dominated by subsistence activity.
• Stage 2 Transitional Stage (Preconditions for Takeoff)
• Stage 3 Take Off
• Stage 4 Drive to Maturity

The growth in economy with change in technology and urbanization are the major factors of economic growth. The highly developed nations falls under stage five and the developing nations like Nepal belongs to the second stage of development theory.
Hence this theory doesn’t have any linkages with demographic transition and population growth and control.
II. Modernization theory:
The basic idea of modernization theory is the transformation of society from traditional to modern through the adaptation of new technology. Modernization theorists often saw traditional society as obstacles to economic growth.
IN modernization theorist Ehrlich sees rapid population growth in the LDCs as an obstacle to development. He claims that much of the poverty found in the LDCs is caused by a ‘population explosion’ which has put too much strain on the limited resources (i.e. food and energy) of these societies and resulted in famine and malnutrition and consequent high rates of infant mortality. High population allegedly puts a great strain on the infrastructure of the LDCs and services such as education and health are stretched to the limit. Economic growth is also difficult to achieve because any economic surplus in the form of capital must be spent on feeding the population and developing an infrastructure to cope with it. If population was not increasing, such economic surplus could be invested in industrial development. There is also concern that high population puts a strain on the environment in terms of pollution and the over-use of land, whilst the need for more land may lead to deforestation.
IV. Dependency theory:
Development theory explains the relationship between the developed and developing nation. Dependency theorists argue that poor societies were better off in the past than they are today. They believe the economic positions of the rich and poor societies are interdependent and that the prosperity of high-income countries has come largely at the expense of low-income countries.
Hence this theory talks just about the dominant relationship between the developed and developing nations and the exploitation of natural resources for the economic development. Hence it has no linkages with the population theory.
V. Women in development:
The concept was emerged during early 1970s after the publication of Ester Boserup’s book called “Women role in Economic Development”. The main concern of this theory is integrating women in economic development through legal and administrative support. For this the priority is given to equal participation of women in education and employment opportunities. When women are educated they are worried about their carrier and are not only responsible to perform house hold chores. As the result of women education the women are also involved in economic activity and they don’t marry and give birth at early age. Hence there is relationship between theory of population and women in development.
Judgment
Here in this chapter the effort has made to examine whether there is positive or negative consequences created due to increasing population and what types of effort or policy had been prepared by government to address this issue. The main objective of this chapter is to choose one theory that has strong relation with the idea and concept of “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”
In my view point the Malthus theory of population growth and IPAT is more relevant to this paper. Both talk about the negative impacts caused by increasing population. This paper also analyzes the population growth as the vital problem in the county Like Nepal. And suggest minimizing the total fertility rate and mortality rate to have less population growth rate.



Out of Box
Case of Nepal
The population of Nepal according to last three censuses 1981, 1991 1nd 2001 is 15022, 839; 18491, 097; 23077,791 respectively. The population growth rate is 2.5% and it will take 25 years for the doubling of population. Similarly the birth, death and fertility rate of Nepal is 33 - 37 per 1000, 10 - 12 per 1000 and 4-6 children per thousand correspondingly. The table below shows the population data of Nepal.
population density: 156 per sq.km = 405 per sq. mi
population growth: 2,5% ; - doubling time: 25 years
birth rate: 33 - 37 per 1000
death rate: 10 - 12 per 1000
fertility rate: 4 - 6 children per female
maternal mortality: 830 per 100,000
infant mortality (1-4 years): 64 - 90 per 1000
life expectancy: 59 years (male: 59; female: 58)
age breakdown: 0-14 years: 42% ; - 15-59 years: 53% ; - 60+ years: 5%
urbanization: 14% ; - urbanization growth: 5%
percentage of urban population in the greatest city: 27%















The population growth data of Nepal during last decade indicates fertility rate is on decline. Fall in fertility plays a crucial role in reducing the growth rate of population. The different factors like extension of education for women, positive changes in social attitude towards female, slight increase in the age of marriage for female, growing knowledge of family planning methods and willingness for its services, extension of economic activities though in a limited way and initiation of modern communication technology in Nepalese society have been helpful in bringing about decline in fertility rate. The declining trend of fertility rate, at present Nepal, is the result of partial success of population program carried out during the past plans.
In Nepal during the 1950s, life expectancy was quite low (about 27 years) due to a high infant mortality rate. However, a continuous decrease in the infant mortality rate has led to an increase in the stated life expectancy. Consequently, during the second half of 20th century, life expectancy in Nepal has increased from 27 to 60 years.
Similarly in case of Nepal the growth of urban population is expected to be high due to process of rapid urbanization coupled with extension of urban sectors. It indicates that demographic data is not only determined by the birth and death rate, it was due to rapid growth in the number of outside immigrants.
Likewise, there are two mechanisms to population ageing - 1) aging at the base and 2) aging at the apex. Ageing at the base results from a decrease in fertility; and then subsequently, by reducing mortality among the elderly. The main cause of population ageing in Nepal is a decline in fertility rather than a decrease in mortality. Control over unplanned pregnancies and early mortality has led to a greater chance that those new lives will live longer and thrive.
The government has also made the policy to control the population growth in Nepal. The main objective of eighth five year plan was is to minimize or reduce the high growth rate of population and to maintain the socio economic development and environment. The ministry of population and environment was established during the fourth year of the eighth plan keeping in the view the need of the nation, commitment of the nation in this sector, the objective of taking ahead the population program in an integrated manner as stipulated in the international conference.

As shown in scenario four the need of fertility decline to 2.2 children per women, it is not easy task for the government. Though there has been a substantial progress in reducing total fertility rate, yet no success has been achieved in materializing the concepts of two children and desire for the same into reality. In 1996, the average number of children desired by couples was about 3.3. The task of transforming the desire of two children into reality is still a challenging job.


Synthesis
This chapter deals with the criticism of demographic transition model and will also deal with the relation between the theoretical knowledge on demographic transition of Nepal with the educational field visit to Jhikhu Khola.
Demographic transition model is accused of studying the relationship between population change and birth and death rates. It fails to show the linkages between the migration and population which is also one of the causes of population change. This model is not applicable for high levels of development because the demographic models make the assumption that with the development and economic growth of nations there will always be decline in fertility level. But it is not true in all cases. It has been shown that after a HDI of 0.9 the fertility increases again.
The other criticism of DTM includes its assumption of no role of social factors like education and health facilities in the decline of fertility and mortality level. It assumes population changes are brought about by industrial changes and increased wealth. This is not true as social changes are equally important in determining birth rates, for example, the education of women. Also, DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. The opposite is true. When infant mortality increases, people are more likely to have more children to replace themselves.
To minimize the error on demographic data of Nepal the mechanism must be developed which focused and count the change in population due to all important factors like migration, death, birth and other social factors like education.
Here in second part of synthesis I have tried to show the linkages of the report with the situation of Jhikhu Khola. (Field visit)
The field visits to Jhikhu Khola helps to demonstrate the knowledge on linkages between population, environment and development. After taking the interview with the government staff of ward office we came to know the population of Jhikhu Khola has been increased by 5-10%. The cause was not decline in mortality rate but it was mainly due to migration of people from other wards or villages. The increase in the population of this area has negative impacts on the environment of this area. The water shade of Jhikhu Khola has trickled down. The people are facing the problem of drought and difficulties in cultivation of agricultural products. The most of the land which were used to be covered by forest has been now converted into human settlement. The other problem associated with the increasing population is air and water pollution.
Though there are negative impacts on environment of Jhikhu Khola, people are receiving benefits like development of infrastructure such as road, establishment of hospital and schools near villages through the increasing population. The access to road and hospital has helped to decline the mortality rate of this area. Easy access to market due too road is one of the most important reasons of people shifting from traditional agricultural practices to cash crop. Similarly the formal and informal women education has helped to reduce the fertility rate of this area.

CONCLUSION
Demographic transition is the central theoretical concept in the population field. As empirical fact, the transition’s nearing completion—in low mortality and fertility—is the dominant feature of global population dynamics. While the determinants of demographic transition have been explored in depth over more than half a century, far less attention has been given to the consequences of transition, aside from its immediate effect on population aging

Nepal's population of 23.1 million in 2001 census was around 4.6 million greater than in 1991 census and over 17.5 million more than the 1911 population census of 5.6 million. The main component of Nepal's population growth has been natural increase. The population size, growth and density vary according to geographical and administrative divisions. For many purposes information on the size and characteristics of the total population of a nation is not sufficient. Population data are often needed for geographic divisions of a country and urban and rural 84 areas. It is true that fertility, mortality and also boundaries changes are the contributing factors in the population size, growth and distribution by geographical and administrative divisions, variations in the net migration is also responsible for spatial changes in the population of the country. In Nepal, the geographic distribution of the population is not even but is dense in some places and sparse in others. There are urban centers where thousands of people live within a few square kilometers, and there are also vast stretches of mountains where the population averages only one or two persons per square kilometer
The Nepal is also suffering from the environmental related problems like pollution, drought, climate change, deforestation, degradation of soil fertility, decrease in agriculture land etc.
Similarly the population theory cannot be analyzed in isolation. There is a deep relationship between population, environment and development. Mainly the environmental degradation is the results of rapid development without concerning its negative impact on environment like water and air pollution. To meet the demand of growing population the natural resources are more exploited. The developed or the rich people have more control on resources as compare to developed or rich people.

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