STUDENT OUTPUTS ON SEMINARS, MAR 9

1.


Summary on

Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation

Submitted to:
Prof Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Kathmandu University

Submitted by: Team II
Team Members
Murvica Pransi
Prem Khattri Chettri
Neesha Shakya

M. Dev’s IIIrd Semester
Submitted on 8th February 2011
Summary on Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation
Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation is an extract from the book Principles of Conservation Biology from the chapter over-exploitation. This chapter elucidate on ‘over-exploitation’. Also it explains how population and eco-system response to exploitation, and ties this to management options. It further explains forms of exploitation and impacts on species on eco-system such as fisheries, hunting and forestry.
Biological Theory:
In order to understand this chapter it is firstly important to understand what biological theory refers to. Biological populations are defined as renewable and the concern arise why should we expect plants and animal populations to be able to withstand the elevated mortality that occurs with most of the exploitation. The major focus in the chapter is ‘when more population is reduced by exploitation, it removes competition for food, territories and shelter and lower transmission rate of disease leading to greater birth rate or enhanced survival. The tendency for such components of fitness limits population at high density known as density dependence.
To understand the sustainable and un-sustainable level of exploitation it is first necessary to ask question whether removal of individual is equivalent to thinning of population, thereby allowing the survivors to grow more quickly or survive better, or the removal occurring too rapidly for population to compensate. Hence, when the question arise ‘what level of population to be removed we must understand how exploitation can become overexploitation and need to see population growth curve.
Sustainability of Exploitation:
Sustainability of exploitation is another important concept as it elaborates how many individuals we can take from the population to maximize the yield. As in practice, it will be very difficult time to find out the exact number of species. Similarly, population will be exploited at a higher rate than recommended. So, in order to find the answer to the ‘what happens when the population is exploited at the rate that differs from the one that theory suggests should be maximally sustainable?’ And this is determined by how exploitation is managed, which is further clarified by the classification. There are three levels classified and they are Constant quota exploitation, Proportional (constant) exploitation and threshold exploitation.
Constant Quota Exploitation:
Constant Quota Exploitation depicts a situation when the numbers removed are ‘constant’ in the sense of being independent of the population size. The best example of this form of exploitation includes fishers that set quotas on the number of the fish that are caught, regardless of subsequent changes in the number of fish in the sea. There are three conditions in constant quota exploitation a) high quota b) maximum sustainable yield and c) low quota.
A) High quota – It is the situation where the yield exceeds the population surplus production capability, which may be because of illegal hunting act or population’s resilience had been over estimated. It is the condition when the species over-exceeds the high quota, species will extinct.
B) Maximum Sustainability Yield – It is an alternative and seems more sensible in the maximum sustainability yield quota. But it is very risky target as it is impossible to get precise management of either surplus production or the population. In case if the population is or at smaller than expected maximum yield the quota will exceed its surplus production and will decline to zero.
C) Low quota – It is the condition when the certain species become extinct after reaching the population criteria. Exploiting at low quota indicates the growth to a stable equilibrium whereby we have sustainable exploitation.

Proportional (constant effort) exploitation:
Proportional exploitation is the exploitation effort that is proportional to the population size. In practice, this is always bound to happen to some extent, because as plants and animals become scarce, people tend to switch to alternative species. Conservationists and resource managers encourage and force people to reduce pressures on populations that reach low abundance. The advantage of this form is that, as long as the exploitation rate is below the intrinsic rate of natural increase then all equilibria are stable.
Threshold exploitation:
The final class of exploitation strategies involves the use of population size thresholds to determine not only the rate of exploitation but also whether exploitation should take place at all. All populations are subject to random variations, for example, due to environmental variation. In the absence of exploitation, they will sometimes exceed their carrying capacities temporarily. We can take advantage of this by taking the entire “surplus” whenever the population is above its carrying capacity, but otherwise ceasing exploitation completely to minimize the chances of being collapsed.
Bio-Economics - It incorporates the cost and benefits of exploitation.
Open access and tragedy of the commons:
The “tragedy of the commons” provides an explanation for a lot of the damage that people are doing to the environment and to each other. For example, if you have a pond in your property then you will take benefit of the fishes alone but if it belongs to your neighbor’s property as well then you need to share the fishes.
Conclusion:
As explained in the introductory part the biological populations are renewable however it contradicts the notion that exploitation promotes further opportunity for growth and survival. As described in the paper ‘as population is reduced by exploitation, there may be reduced competition for food, territories, shelter and a lower rate of disease. This can lead to greater birth rate or enhance survival.’ So, here question arises when the species are decreasing due to exploitation how can we predict that due to exploitation there are further spaces for the species to grow. Hence, it shows how exploitation of one species provides space for the other species growth and survival however it contradicts the notion that exploitation the cause root of extinct of the species rather it is a space for further growth and survival of the species.


2.

Summary of

The Ecology of Order and Chaos.

Submitted to: Prof. A R Tuladhar
Submitted by: Team II
Neesha Shakya
Murbica Parsia
Prem Khattri Chettri
The Ecology of Order and Chaos by Donald Worster, professor of history at the University of Kansas, Laurence, who has written number of articles on environment. The ecology of order and chaos is a critique according to him this science of ecology has a very important part in our present day life. He argued that ecology should not be taken as an all-wise, always trustworthy guide rather we must be able to challenge the authority and moreover challenge the authority of science in general, not be quick to scorn or vilify or behead, but simply, now and then to question.

In Paul Sear’s day ecology was basically a study of equilibrium, harmony and order; and it had been so from its beginnings. However, in today’s scientific research, it has become a study of disturbance, disharmony and chaos where conservation is often not even a remote concern. Moreover, F.L. Clements called his scientific ecology as dynamic ecology which states that it was concerned with change and evolution in the landscape. Similarly, there is other influential writer who has written on the ecology. In 1953 Odum published the first edition of his famous book The Fundamentals of Ecology. He defines the ecosystem as “any unit that includes all of the organisms in a given area interacting with the physical environment so that a flow of energy leads to clearly defined trophic structure, biotic diversity, and material cycles within the system. Hence, he argued that the whole earth is organized into an interlocking series of such ecosystem. Therefore, Odum may have used different terms than Clements, may even have had a radically different vision of nature at times; but he did not repudiate Clement’s notion that nature moves toward order and harmony. In the place of the theory of the ‘climax’ stage he put the theory of
‘mature ecosystem’

Worster time and again has raised the voice especially to those who try to overthrow or try to put aside the previously overwhelming topic of ecology which focuses on the restoration of harmony between man and nature. The article by D. Worster is mainly a critique to the new science of chaos which applied to ecology. William Drury and Ian Nisbet have challenged the Odum’s ecology fundamentally. With both F Clements and E Odum, the succession has been taken to be the straight and narrow road to equilibrium. Drury and Nisbet disagreed completely with that assumption. Similarly, Gleason had argued that we live in a world of constant flux and impermanence and not one tending toward Clement’s climaxes. There is no such thing as balance or equilibrium or steady-state. Each and every plant association is nothing but a temporary gathering of strangers a clustering of species unrelated to one another. As this assault on the old thinking gathered momentum the word ‘disturbance’ began to appear more frequently in the scientific literature and be taken far more seriously.

However, Worster totally does not disapprove with this new science; the science of Chaos, the nature on which with this assumption has started to believe is fundamentally erratic, discontinuous and unpredictable. It is full of seemingly random events that elude our models of how things are supposed to work. As a result, the unexpected keeps hitting us in the face. Making sense of this situation is the task of an altogether new kind of inquiry calling itself the science of chaos. Worsters see this as the great revolution against the scientific revolution as far as of 16th Century. With this the world has become complex and difficult that it is not simply easy to put it in theories and laws.

Despite the obvious complexity of their subject matter, ecologists have been among the slowest to join the cross-disciplinary science of chaos. Whether we believe it or not the new science of chaos has now a permanent and inherent part of the world as it works now. Similarly, whether they are true or false, permanent or passingly fashionable, it does seem entirely possible that these changes in scientific thinking toward and emphasis on chaos will not produce any easing of the environmentalist’s concern. Though words like ecosystem and or climax may fade away and some new vocabulary take their place, the fear of risk and danger will likely become greater than ever.
Finally ecology today, no more than in the past, can be assumed to be all-knowing or all-wise or eternally true.

3.


Population Theory Critiques

TEAM II: MURBIKA, NEESHA, PREM: 22 FEB, 2011

Introduction:
Population is defined as a number of people in the given area, such as in a town, city or a country. The population of the world is increasing day by day resulting over-population; over-population is defined as the number of people in an area relative to its resources and the capacity of the environment to sustain human activities. There are several theories developed on population and some of the widely known population are as follows:
Malthus theory of population:
Malthus is a popular name when we talk about population, he is famous for his Iron Law of Population, in his theory he has stated that the population grows in a geometric ration and the other means of subsistence in arithmetic whose ultimate end would be poverty. His theory explains that people have a natural tendency to reproduce hence in absence of any moral restraint the population will explode leading to Malthusian Doom like Famine. Also explains that there are two types of checks which control the population. The first one is the positive checks such as events which raise the death rate such as hunger, disease and war. And the second is the preventative checks and it includes abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy.
A great deal of criticism has been directed against the Malthusian theory on the ground that it advocated the practice of vice as a restraint upon the tendency of population to increase more rapidly than food supply. Such criticism is without just foundation. Malthus did not advocate vice for the purpose of restricting population. But he recognized that vice does, as a matter of fact, tend to restrict population.
There are, however, three principal lines of criticism which may justly be urged against Malthus. First, he underestimates the possibilities of increased food supply. There is no ground for making the general assertion that as population increases from two to four, food supply can increase only from two to three. Under the operation of the law of diminishing returns and without changing the area of land cultivated by the given population or changing its methods of cultivation, while the labor supply increases from two to four the product could not increase from two to four, but it might well increase more than from two to three. But Europe during the past century has increased the area from which it draws its food supply and now depends in ever-increasing measure upon the Americas and Australia for subsistence. Moreover, the methods of cultivation of the soil have improved marvelously within the last century. The population of England and Wales increased in the century following the publication of Malthus' essay from nine millions to thirty-two and a half millions, and this increase in population took place in the presence of an increasing standard of living.
Second, there are other checks upon increase of population besides vice, misery, and moral restraint as defined by Malthus. The desire of parents to keep their daughters with them as long as possible serves in some cases to defer marriages. So, too, do customs which demand that the parents furnish a dowry. The feminist movement, the modern tendency to keep children longer in school, and compulsory military service, all act in the same direction. Many other checks might be enumerated which do not fall under Malthus' classification of vice, misery, and moral restraint.
3. Third, along with increase in numbers there is growth in national military and political strength. This sometimes makes it possible for a country to exploit its weaker neighbors in an economic sense, or to resist economic exploitation on the part of stronger neighbors. To this extent an increase in population tends to improve the food supply.
Demographic Transition Model (DTM):
The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson which involves the changes in population over the 200 years. It is the model used to represent transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The transition involves four stages:
- where the population in the first stage shows high death and birth rate,
- Followed by drops in death rate and
- The birth rate along with it to the final stage
- Where both the rates are low and population is headed for a stability situation.
Boserup population theory:
This is another theory and it can be stated as the critique to the theory of Malthus. According to this, the population that grows only because it can maintain itself and that the so anticipated Malthusian Doom is likely to occur as the growing population will be able to maintain itself with technological innovations and advancements.
This theory further states that the agricultural methods depend on the size of the population and not the way as Malthus said. According to Malthus during times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the extra people will have to die. But, Boserup states that in those times of pressure people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc. This new process is described as "agricultural intensification" and it indicates raising production at the cost of more work at lower efficiency.
As per Boserup technology has played a tremendous role in china for the industrial revolution, green revolution and biotech revolution. During this technological revolution China has qualified an era of large economic growth. The resulting technology is the best in the national context which was carried out for a period from 1978-2005 which accounted at that time around 80% productivity gains. Likewise the revolution in industrial sector helped to move the agricultural based on manual labor to machine based agriculture which increase the productivity of crops as a result it brought the change in life style of the people.
Similarly, from the period of 1945 the Green Revolution that has changed the feature of agricultural system, that really helped the food production to go at higher level to fulfill the demands of growing population. However, the new innovation and technology in the field of agriculture that helped to yield a higher production has some certain limits too, as technology is not sustainable in some of the areas and safety issues were the major concern.
The role of social institutions and politics in population growth:
Social institutions and politics of a country can play an important role in population growth. The example of Mauritius could be the most suitable for the role of social institution and politics in controlling the population growth. By making changes in their social structure they try to keep the balance in between the natural resources and the populations. Similarly the education of women was increased as a result the number of women getting married early goes down. At the same time advancement of technology in the field of agriculture has really made the country successful and independent.
Population as a Propaganda or capitalistic “necessity” as argued by Marx….
In capitalist society labor is exchanged by the worker in return for a price. Moreover, like any commodity it has a use –value and a value which is the unique characteristics of the labor. The value created by labor is simple the time during which it was exerted.
The difference between them is the source of profit to employers of labor and it is what drives the capitalist system. An employer (a capitalist) buys labor at its value. He receives from it the value it creates. If the latter is greater than the former—if the value created by labor is greater than the wage—the capitalist gains by using that labor. This difference between values, which the capitalist keeps, is called surplus value.

According to Malthusian theory population growth is the result of poverty. As stated the situation will remain more or less same though we try to avoid it. Moreover, as the low income population starts to raise their income they eventually also increase the number of off springs too. This leads to the further introduces the cycle of poverty as before. The situation is more common in third world countries. Even in the present context the third world countries live their lifestyle as they are in the poverty stage it is mostly because of the inescapable cycle of poverty no matter how much they try to come out from it. And as Malthus’ view was highly supportive of the rich, this development argument is the same for the FWC.
Finally, the first world countries want to see the third world as same than before because it’s easier to them to exploit the third world countries in the name
The FWC believe that the TWC should remain as they are so that it’s easier for them to exploit them in the name of development. Hence in the name of sustainability and ecological balance the First Worl.d are preventing the Third World from attaining the growth.

4.


ECOLOGY AND ENLIGHTENMENT

Team I
Salpa Shrestha
Krishna GC
Prakash Budha magar

Having witnessed the kind of devastation through technological embodied science, there is considerable room for doubt as to how wise were the people to have created ecological crisis and claim to have the Age of Enlightenment. This issue even becomes even more serious to ponder upon when the people of eighteenth century claim to have associated with great philosophers, scientists and other intellectuals and yet failing to yield favourable environment for the people to exist. These people who claim to have been enlightened, on the other hand, have been criticized by the ecological critics, who have identified the achieved growth by the so-called enlightened people at the expense of ecological environment. Nonetheless, its defenders also confront the issue by arguing about the problem of insufficiencies and deficient enlightenment or mastery over the exploitation of the natural resources. Some even conclude by saying that more mastery is the solution to ecological crises.

Since the inception of the word ‘ecology’ back in 1868, by Haekel, it has undergone tremendous change in its understanding and usages from different perspective with cross-cutting criticism on various different views. Some find humans on first place; others go for equity recognizing the interests others have. The understanding of the term ‘ecology’ itself varies largely. Therefore, while evaluating ecology, one can judge it either with the scientific discipline definition or in the context of social and political thought.

The defender of the enlightenment criticism would like to put forward the necessity of scientific study even though there is criticism of ecological. On the other hand, some believe (in opposition to Bacon and Descartes) ecological thought to be holistic and can be considered as the antithesis of each of reductionism, dualism and atomism.

The methods of understanding ecology has been largely criticised by scholars like Bacon and Descantes who do not agree to the fact of the claim by the pure science on ecology, which argue of analytical method through and metaphysics of studying ecology. Social study of ecology lobbies for equal rights and dignity for everything in the nature and not just anthropocentric view. The critics also point out the current ecological distribution to be due to neglecting intrinsic value of every individual.

However, the idea of criticising enlightenment has not remained untouched as well. The critics of enlightenment have criticized the idea for being insufficient radically and not knowing what knowledge is.

5.

Resource conservation and Environmental Economics

Submitted By:
Krishna G.C.
Parkash Budha Magar
Salpa Shrestha

Key arguments for Resource conservation and Environmental Economics Seminar
Natural resource is a function of physical supply, market demand and state of technology available. In other word, without proper management and utilization of natural resources, its benefit is difficult to obtain. Perhaps it’s one of the reasons why Nepal has lag behind in making the best out of natural resource. In fact, improper management and unskilled utilization of environmental resources has led to rather deteriorating situation.
The government of Nepal – after realization – has addressed the importance of natural resources management and environmental management challenges in the tenth plan (2002-2007). The importance of resource conservation has been much hyped topic with the emergence of different exploitation systems such as stability of exploitation, constant quota exploitation quota, proportional (constant) exploitation, and threshold exploitation system for natural resource conservation. Historically Nepal has been dependent heavily on natural resources for its subsistence and growth. Even today, economic growth is broader based, with consequent implications for the nature and diversity of environmental impacts. However, despite of some of some progress from a few successful policy initiatives and programs, the overall environmental conditions in both rural and urban areas are deteriorating, and, if left unaddressed, will potentially impede the country’s reform agenda and growth prospects. There is a strong linkage found between MDG and environmental sustainability. It has been evident from the studies that a success in achievement of MDG has largely credited to environmental situation- better the environment conditions its easier to meet MDG.
Emergence challenges;
Adapting to climate variability and change
Public Health Implications
Forestry and Biodiversity Implications
Agricultural Implications
Water Resource Implications
Rising population pressure on the land and a sectoral development approach have led to the deterioration of the environment. As a result policies and strategies began to address the severe problem being faced by the environment as well as human well-being. It was the third plan that drew much attention to the prevalence of environmental problems, hence emphasized the protectionist policies.
The connection between land use practices and environmental degradation is obviously not new. However, the problem has been increasing with the rise in population. Studies have clearly stated the current economic growth and development as achieved at the cost of environmental degradation. It also emphasized the role of small and medium sized industries and factories in contributing to more of natural hazards as they lack proper knowledge and practice carelessness. Right now about 38% of the Gross Domestic Production (GDP) has been being contributed from Natural resources which is also believed to be lower due to other non-inclusion of natural resource contribution. Otherwise, the scholar argues to have its contribution to even at higher rate.
However the concept of the green GDP has emerged to calculate he pure GDP without it’s impact to the environment. While calculating the Green GDP negative impact to the environment while producing any goods and services is reduced form the economic GDP. When we produce rice we use different pesticide for better rice production. It gives positive impact tot the GDP. But at the same time some spices like fish, insects can be extinct. Such loss is calculated and the impact is reduced from the GDP.



6.

DEVELOPMENT IS THE BEST CONTRACEPTIVE

Team one
Salpa Shrestha
Krishna Hari GC
Prakash Budha Magar


The question of ‘best contraceptive’ for population growth as ‘Development’ completely depends upon the kind of definition we have for ‘Development’. Development is seen from various perspective ever since it’s’ inception by American president Harry Truman in 1948.
However, its also true that the population growth has either gone down or stabilized globally in contrast to what Malthus and Ehrlich had seen a couple of centuries ago. The questions of whether development played key role for this result can’t be concluded, though it can be claimed, which is largely because of the adversely affect of development activities on human and environment. The development as perceived by World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) differ, and hence, the role of development to check or control the population growth can not be denied of the controversy.
Despite of the numerous adverse affects of development activities in terms of environmental degradations, ecological disturbance, the rising gap between the haves and have-nots, the development concept has been effective in terms of stabilizing Nepal’s population growth. However, development can not be understood as global panacea for contraception of growing population.
Various variables and indicators of ‘Development’ such as, social awareness, health improvement, economic progress, modernization etc. has hinted towards the positive impact in declining population growth. Nepal has experienced tremendous changes after democracy was established in 1950s, at the same time it also has been able to either stabilize or bring down the population growth.
For example, the national plans, such as ninth plan and tenth plan, where a lots of emphasis has been given to the concept of two children and easy availability of family planning related devices as well as standard material child health services to the people. Abolition of early child marriage, literacy to woman are some of the examples of how policy level development has helped Nepal undergo a tremendous stabilization in population growth.
The recent trend of population growth from 1981, 1991 to 2001 census the growth rate has decreased from 2.62, 2.08 to 2.25 respectively according to Central Bureau of Statistics. The recent ADB report has given the figure to be at 1.9 at present as of 2008. It is also evident from the study that the population growth has been associated with the development aspects of the nations. For example, the Europeans are well developed in terms of various development indicators such as GDP, per capita income, HDI etc with stabilized population growth. Whereas, in Asia, where people are far behind in terms of development is also facing the population growth challenges.

7.

Summary On

Demographic transition model (DTM)

Date: 22nd Feb, 2011

Submitted by: Team III (Devs 504)
Manisha Bhattarai
Rijana Malla
Baburam Devkota

Submitted to:
Dr. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar





The Demographic transition model (DTM) is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. It seeks to explain population increases and decreases through variations in the birth rate and death rate. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). Thompson observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Most developed countries are in stage 3 or 4 of the model; the majority of developing countries have reached stage 2 or stage 3.
The transition involves four stages, or possibly five
Stage I -Pre industrial equilibrium (Birth Rate and Death rate are both high)
Stage II –early industrialization (Birth Rate remains high, Death Rate is falling, Population begins to rise steadily)
Stage III –Developed industrialization (Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.)
Stage IV-post industrial equilibrium ( there is both low birth rates and low death rates. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries)
The human population has been steadily increasing since the dawn of the industrial revolution. The world’s population is estimated to stabilize by the year 2050. The population has distributed itself throughout the entire globe and continues to expand.
Different sets of transition
• Mortality transition
• Fertility transition
• Age transition
• Migration transition
• Urban transition
• Family and household transition

The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages; however, some theorists consider that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries that have sub-replacement fertility. Most European and many East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rate.
Britain
Between 1750 and 1975 England experienced the transition from high levels of both mortality and fertility, to low levels. A major factor was the sharp decline in the death rate for infectious diseases, which has fallen from about 11 per 1,000 to less than 1 per 1,000. By contrast, the death rate from other causes was 12 per 1,000 in 1850 and has not declined markedly. The agricultural revolution and the development of transport, initiated by the construction of canals, led to greater availability of food and coal, and enabled the Industrial Revolution to improve the standard of living.

Ireland
In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Irish demographic status converged to the European norm. Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in Irish society, with respect to family planning, women in the work force, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor
Russia
Russia has been undergoing a unique demographic transition since the 1980s; observers call it a "demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, life expectancy is drastically decreasing and the number of suicides has increased

Limitation
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:
One of the principal criticisms of the DTM is the questionable applicability to lesser developed countries, where the prerequisites for wealth and information access are limited. For example, the DTM has been validated primarily in Europe, Japan and North America where demographic data exists over centuries, whereas high quality demographic data for most Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) did not become widely available until the mid 20th century.
The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely; however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.
The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities.
DTM in Nepal:
Nepal has a long history of census taking dating back to the early 19th century. The first modern census was conducted in 1952/54 using internationally standard concepts and definitions and the first computerized census was the one conducted in 1971. The census 2001 has counted 23.2 million which is growing at 2.25 percent per annum. The projected population of the year 2011 would reach 28.6 million.
In DTM it has shown that Nepal is in Stage 2 where it has a high birth rate and declining death rate.

What will make DTM fail in Nepal?
According to the latest PRB data, Nepal’s birth rate is 28 per 1,000 populations while the death rate is 9 per 1000 population. So the net population growth rate is 19 per 1000. The urban population today is quite low at 14%. Further, as Ritu Pantha has stated, a significant proportion of Nepal’s population is young. According to the PRB data, 41% of the Nepalese population is under 15. When these people become of reproductive age, we can expect them to increase the population significantly unless measures are taken. Given the low levels of urbanization, low income levels, insufficient industrialization, and a still prevalent tendency to see children as assets, it is likely that the population will increase.

8.

ASSIGNMENT 2

POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES

PREPARED BY GROUP IV
BIBHOR KAYASTHA
JYOTSNA KAKSHAPATI
SAMBIDA REGMI

Agricultural Perspective Plan
1. Agriculture is a major contributor in employment and GDP of Nepal. It is primarily subsistence oriented.
2. Per capita food production is decreasing. However, production of wheat has increased. Recent data:

Area Production Area Production
Grain 2008/09 2009/10
Paddy 1556 4524 1481 4024
Maize 875 1931 876 1855
Wheat 695 1344 731 1556
Barley 25.8 23 27 28
Millet 266 293 268 299
Source: CBS, Nepal in Figures 2010

It is notable that production of cash crops like sugarcane, oil seeds and potatoes is increasing.

3. Comparing the data of 60s with the 90s, we can find that there is a decrease of considerable amount in yields as compared to other South Asian nations.

4. Greatest deficiencies in agricultural development lie in the following four specific areas:
• Fertilizer policies, not effective to satisfy demand
• Irrigation not able to provide year-round well controlled water supply
• Poor road infrastructure
• Low technological advancement

5. Irrigation has covered almost 1606224.7 Ha of land. Still 1047811.9 Ha of the agricultural holdings need the facility.

6. Agricultural Perspective Plan (APP) is a 20 year plan formulated 1995. It stipulates that a dynamic and commercially oriented agriculture has the potential to have a significant and positive impact on both increased income and the environment. This plan not only addresses the transformation of agriculture system but also the environmental problems that are likely to emerge with the increased use of fertilizers and chemicals.

7. APP is a prioritized plan with a prioritized productivity package (PPP).

• Input Priorities: Irrigation, Fertilizers, Technology, Roads and power
• Output Priorities: Livestock, High-value crops, Agribusiness, Forestry
• Targeted impact areas: Poverty reduction and food security, Environment, Regional balance
• Priority Policy Reform: In the policy arena, emphasis is put on land tenure; price policy; private sector promotion; poverty, women and the environment; and resource allocation for priority programs.
• Priority Institutions: Actions from a number of key agencies will play a definitive role in successfully implementing the recommended APP package. These agencies are: the National Support Committee (proposed), Subcommittee for the Implementation of the District Agricultural Program (proposed), Independent Analytical Unit (proposed), Department of Agricultural Roads (proposed), Agricultural Development Bank, Agricultural Inputs Corporation, Department of Agriculture and Department of Livestock Services.

8. APP Strategy:
• Technology-based green revolution to be the initial engine of accelerated growth.
• Accelerated agriculture growth to create a demand-pull for the production of high-value commodities in agriculture, as well as non-agricultural commodities, and cause large multiplier effects on other sectors of economy.
• Broadly based high employment growth to become the mechanism for societal objectives achievement.
• Public policy and investment focus on a small number of priorities, building on past investment in human capital and physical and institutional infrastructure.
• A package approach to development is introduced, which in Nepal's case would be differentiated for the Terai, Hills and Mountains, and would recognize the powerful complementarily between public and private investment and priorities, and would ensure their coordination.
• To achieve broad participation, the strategy is regionally balanced and explicitly ensures the participation of women.

9. APP recommends reorienting research and extension approaches in a way that allows realization of economies of scale in the adoption of appropriate technologies in the selected priority commodities and disciplinary areas. The identified priorities in research and extension need to be fine-tuned to suit the diverse agro ecological conditions of the country and to specific target groups such as women.

10. Research priorities of APP:

Fertilizers:
• Selecting the appropriate mix, timing and proper nutrient balance, including meeting trace element deficiencies.
• Application of manure is essential to complement the fertilizers and to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. Right balance of organic and inorganic source of plant nutrients.
• Training programs on soil science and fertilizers use.

Cropping system for shallow tube-wells:
• Figure out the effective way of realizing optimum benefits from tube wells in terai
• Farming systems research to identify suitable cropping patterns and varietal selection that promise optimal utilization of the available resources and higher returns to the farmers.
• Address issues related to increased efficiency of the entire farming system and its major components for mountains and hills.

Commodity Programs:
• In terai, it is most likely that the four major field crops - rice, wheat, maize and potato - will be the dominant crops, followed by cash crops for which markets exist, and fodder crops, increasingly popular once the drive for livestock rearing, particularly dairy animal starts picking up.
• In hills, the lead commodities are citrus among crops and dairy among livestock in all the five geographic regions, followed by a small number of subsidiary commodities from among tea, cardamom, off-season vegetables, peas, radish seed, coffee, ginger, onion seed, goats, pigs and angora rabbits.
• In mountains, potato seed, apples, dairy, yaks, sheep and goats among the lead commodities, and citrus, off-season vegetables, potato seed, vegetable seed, yaks, pigs, sheep, cattle, goats and dairy among the subsidiary commodities.

Marketing and Processing:
• Marketing and processing research should be integrated with the commodity and farming system research geared at the selected priority commodities.

11. Investment in Basic Infrastructure:
• Rural (agricultural) roads and telecommunication facilities enhance the process of agricultural commercialization by linking production areas with potential markets.
• Rural electrification is essential not only for energizing various kinds of agricultural equipment such as irrigation pumps but also to promote small agro-based industries for processing local agricultural surpluses, thus providing markets and adding value to locally produced goods.
• Construction will also create employment opportunity in the process.

12. Analytical Remarks :
• It is a long term plan formulated in 1995, since then conflict, change in government and systems must have affected it.
• Biodiversity is not addressed.
• Environmental aspects are not neglected but are also not prioritized.
• Power deficiencies in the rural areas are solved with micro hydro power projects. APP doesn’t mention about ways to meet

9.

REVISED GRADING POLICY FOR DEVS 504: FINAL WRITTEN EXAM TOO

REVISED ON MAR 7, 2011
DEVELOPMENT 504 GRADING POLICY 2011/ART


1. Attendance (15 weeks, 15 classes) = 10% of Total Grade
2. Team Seminars on Unit 2,3,4 @ 5%/each = 15%
3. Team Practicums @ 10%/each, Lab & Field = 20%
4. Individual Works
a. Short Analytical Paper, 10 pg = 5%
b. Long Term Paper, 25 pg = 15%
c. Term Paper Seminar = 5%
5. End of term, final written examination = 30%
TOTAL = 100%