Nepal Vision 2050:

Scenarios for Population, Natural Resource, and Development

Submitted By:

Dharm Raj Joshi

ID No. : SNSADS110003

Master in Development Studies, III Semester

School of Arts, Kathmandu University

Submitted To:

Amulya Ratna Tuladhar

Professor of Environment Science

Devs. 504: Population and Development

School of Arts, Kathmandu University

Paper Submitted as a partial requirement of Devs. 504

Date of Submission: June 5, 2012

Prologue

This paper presents Vision for Nepal 2050 in terms of Population, Natural Resources, and Development based on analyzing, interpreting, and synthesizing corresponding scenarios through various theoretical lenses. Further, it attempts to establish potential linkages of these three analytical concepts to Sustainable Development, State, and Discourse that will pave the pathways for Nepal Vision 2050.

In this paper, I will argue that Population of Nepal will be stabilized at 35 million, which will help enhance Natural Resources & accelerate Development during 2012 and 2050. During this period intensity of ‘Invention (or use of technology) and Exploitation (of natural resources)’ will be consistent and Nepal will follow the pace for progress despite of uncertainty. The paper has two parts; part-I presents analyses, interpretations, and synthesis of each three dimensions of the study portraying particular scenario based on extensive examination hitherto trends and patterns of the variables. Furthermore, each prong is further divided in to three subparts. Current scenario will be dealing with past and present trends of related issue and future scenario will present BAU scenario and OTB scenario leading to 2050 from 2012. Finally, risks are identified along with the possible solutions. Second part presents linkages of these three prongs with Sustainable development, State and Discourse. Finally, I will conclude that in 2050, Nepal may have 35 million people enjoying descent environment covered with 45% of green forest and desired development. According to DTM, model and my critique population of Nepal will be 35 million after 38 years. Participatory forest management policy of federal government will provide wider space for local people and private sector in managing local forests that will result in 45% of the land covered by forest. Similarly, overall development of Nepal will be triggered mainly by economic development. The strong government of developmental state will maintain sustainability.

           

Part - I

Population

Present Scenario: Population

Population in Nepal has not been changing uniformly over the years. Before 1930s population was declining with negative annual growth rate but it began to increase since 1941 (Pantha & Sharma, n.d.) and has reached to 26,620,809  (CBS, September 2011)  in 2011 while it was 23,151,423 in 2001. Despite of the significant declined in total fertility rate (from 6 or 7 children per women in 1960s to 3.4 in 2011) total population has increased exponentially  (NPC, August 08, 2011). Extension of improved health facilities has contributed to decrease the mortality rate of both infant mothers. Population distribution among and across various region, age groups, sex and places has become important aspect to affect desired developmental outcomes. Cities and resource abundance areas (i.e. Tarai) witness increased pressure while the population pressure in hill and mountain at the margin has begun to decline relatively. In addition, changes taking place in spatial distribution of population introducing fundamental implication in the broader developmental domain attracting more policy attention and research needs. Multiple lenses to view population provide different ideas about population. According to Malthus population growth, inevitably causes poverty provided with limited natural resources (Malthus, 1830). While this view was dominant, Karl Marx came up with radical view saying that poverty is not the default cause of population growth. During late 1940s and early 1950s, Demographic Transition Model (DTM) came into existence emphasizing on economic and social development in relation to population increase. According to DTM Nepal is in second stage where a country is industrializing and population is increasing accompanied with decreased death rates and declining birth rates.

Future Scenarios

1.     Business as Usual Scenario Leading to Nepal in 2050

Scenario of change in population of Nepal shows continuous upward shift since 1940s (Pantha & Sharma, n.d.). Although the population growth reduced significantly to 1.4 in 2011 (NPC, August 08, 2011), total population has recorded an unprecedented height in the Nepalese history, it will continue to increase in the future and stabilized at 60 million in 2050. If we look through the lens of DTM Nepal currently shifting through the II stage and if the pace of the progress in the sectors like health, education and other development interventions remain the same likelihood of Nepal to be in III stage seems very high. Shyam Thapa, in his collaborative paper, argues that if the population grows at the rate of 2001 (2.25) total population of Nepal will exceed 100 million by the end of 21^st century (Feeney, Thapa, & Sharma, 2001). However, I argue that population growth rate of 1.4 (2011) will increase and reach slightly below 2, and population will be 60 million within 38 years (2012 -2050).

--Year--

Total Population

X

Death Rate

Birth Rate

26,620,809

60,000,000

1941

2012

2050

Y

Death Rate

Birth Rate

26,620,809

60,000,000

1941

2012

2050

Y

X

Figure 1: BAU Scenario for population in 2050

Death Rate

Birth Rate

26,620,809

60,000,000

1941

2012

2050

Y

X

2.    Outside the Box Scenario: My Vision for 2050

Nepal is on it’s transmogrify form political, social and economic aspects. It is almost impossible for any country or society to have static situation that certain fluctuations are expected. Therefore, Nepal will also face some vicissitudes of population growth in the years to come until 2050. From 2012 to 2050, people will experience significant changes in every aspect of their lives that will certainly affect the population pace. Experts argue that Nepal has achieved significant reduction in annual population growth rate in 2011 because of out migration of people from reproductive age either in order to support livelihoods of their families or to escape the danger of CPN-Maoist conflict during last decade. But such scenario will no longer exist beyond 2015 as the new constitution is to come which will ensure livelihood alternatives with in the country accompanied with political stability. In such scenario individuals and the state will less concerned to adopt population control measures strictly consequently population will increase rapidly during initial decade then it will decrease slowly stabilizing somewhere around 35 million by 2050. Zero population growth will be very difficult if not impossible during this period but Nepal will approach very near to zero growth towards the end of 2050. According to DTM stage VI is the stage for zero population growth which seems less feasible for Nepal immediately after the sociopolitical and economic transformation. Socioeconomic characteristic and dominant political ideology will shape the attitude of people towards population control.

Figure 2: Outside the Box Scenario: My Vision for 2050

Birth Rate

Death Rate

26,620,809

Total Population

35,000,000

X

--Year--

1941

2012

2050

Y

3.    Risk Scenarios, their implications and potential solutions to the Vision 2050

Vision is always about future which is surrounded by unknown risks and unacquainted uncertainties. I envisioned 35 million populations for Nepal in 2050, which seems very challenging based on the current trends of population dynamics. The vision is about more than just a number, which is unalienable from the quality of life. Potential risks to this vision might be exponential boom of population, aging population, dramatic change on the life of women and marginalized people, incessant move of people that will result in implications regarding surrounding environment (PRB, 1999). According to NLSS-III (2011) increased number of  poor people are entering into middleclass in this transition people may like to see increased number in their family that more member in their family will help them achieve faster progress (Part 4: Canada in the Global Economy, Chapter Eighteen: Economic Growth). This may happen due to various reasons: first, if political crisis remain the same or exacerbated, second, if I/NGOs find unfavorable investment environment and third failure of plans and policies of the state. Risks identified here have sets of solution and we have to work on them from now to achieve solutions that will ensure the target by 2050. New constitution will play catalytic role so the stakeholders of the state should formulate constitution before 2013. Favorable environment for I/NGOs to invest on health sector most be ensured through liberalized economy and privatization so as to enhance overall efficiency and effectiveness of health sector otherwise government like ours will not be able to provide adequate facility to control birth rates. Moreover, State must make provision of inclusive policy to address widening disparity among and across caste, community, class, and region regarding poverty and human development  (NPC, August 08, 2011). Since population growths in Nepal have been natural increase (Pantha & Sharma, n.d.), therefore, policies regarding small family size, rising age at child bearing and late marriage (Ehrlich & Ehrlich, 2009) may help achieve this target with no side effects.

Natural Resources

Current Scenario: Natural Resources

Changing human conditions drive both directly and indirectly change in biodiversity, in ecosystem and in services ecosystem provide. Thus, biodiversity and human well beings are inextricably linked. Interaction of population with natural resource bases such as Land, Forest, and Water that are providing the livelihoods for population, has been posing many implications since the demands and withdrawal exceeding the caring capacity of these resources (Shaengi, n.d). Therefore, governments, and other institutions along with communities began to manage natural resources with the help of knowledge, science, and technology available to them. From the beginning of Five Year Planning (1956 – 1971), Government of Nepal began to focus on the management of Natural resources mainly after the end of Rana Regime (Guthman, 1997; Kanel, 2006; MOPE, 2004; Timsina & Paudel, 2003). First, it adopted top-down model of policy intervention in order to manage forest and agricultural land; as this approach began to fail to meet conservation motif, Nepal witnessed the paradigm shift as a result participatory mode of policy approach came into action. It introduced Community forestry that has been achieving favorable results to fulfill the community needs and national aim simultaneously from 1980s; however, deforestation has not been stopped (Guthman, 1997) . Nepal’s forest resources are some of the few potential resources for its national revenue (Timsina & Paudel, 2003). Water resource has a great potential but benefits from it is yet to be extracted (MOPE, 2004). Agricultural land is the most significant natural resource for Nepal since it has been providing income and livelihood for more than 76.3 percent population  (NPC, August 08, 2011). Share of agricultural land and forest is 21%, & 29%, respectively in total land area of Nepal (Kanel, 2006) (MOPE, 2004) (MOSC, 2008). Forest resource was revitalized through the community forestry in 1970s and 1980s, after the failure of the forest nationalization in 1960s that encouraged government to privatize the forests. Although agriculture is the mainstay of more than 76 percent people access to land is very problematic only 16.1 % people hold 62.8 % of cultivated land and average landholding size has decreased to 0.5 in 2011 (MOSC, 2008).  

Future Scenarios

1.    Business as Usual Scenario Leading to 2050

If the trends of change concerning natural resource followed the current pace, it is very likely that it has to face increased pressure and it will be reduced significantly up to 2050. According to Nepal Biodiversity Book (2007) forest resources has decreased at an annual rate of 1.3% and 2.3% respectively in Tarai and Hills between 1978/79 and 1990/91 while at the national level it was 1.7% and it is reduced to 0.6 % during the period 1990/91 and 2000/01 (MOSC, 2008). Community Based Forest User Groups (CBFUGs) have become influential institutions for managing the forest resources of Nepal (Kanel, 2006). Since, factors to change natural resources like population, development interventions, and climate change (Jodha, Jan-June 2005) remain almost unpredictable but it is evident that these dimensions will definitely increase in coming future that will constrain, for example, the caring capacity of natural resources with the alarming demands and withdrawal (Redclieft, 1997). In such situation, natural resource will have increased pressure from all sides despite of the growing ecological concern of the national and international institutions (Brown, 5 February 1997).

Forest Cover

1941

1978/79

2050

Y

--Year--

Figure 3: Business as Usual Scenario for NR Leading to 2050

Community Forestry

National Forestry

X

2001/02

1960

2.   Outside the Box Scenario: My vision for 2050

Natural resources alone give, at least me, very mundane picture. So it must be envisioned in relation with factors affecting it like population, development, and climate change at the broader sense. If we look at natural resource from the lens of ‘Ecology and Enlightenment’ we must be able to discern socio-political, economic, environmental perspective considering knowledge, science and technology. Scenario from 2012 to 2050 favorable for Natural resources in Nepal because upcoming constitution will guarantee the ownership of local people over land, forest and water and federal state will make efficient policies and implement them effectively. Globalization will play crucial role to attract the attention of multilateral development agencies because of its strategic importance, which will certainly contribute to the enhancement of the natural resource. Natural resources are intrinsically associated with local people who rely on these resources for their subsistence (Jodha, Jan-June 2005). During this period, people will have easy access to efficient technologies for their daily use, which will drastically reduce the pressure upon natural resources (Sanwal, 2011). Upcoming Constitution of Federal Nepal will help politics to be stable that will initiate solid steps to protect natural resources and forest cover will be extended up to 45% in 2050 from 29% in 2001. Governments at federal states would encourage private sector and local communities to work to together which will accelerate and strengthen the natural resource bases.

Figure 4:Outside the Box Scenario for NR: My vision for 2050

1941

1978/79

2050

Y

1960

2001/02

X

Community Forestry

Forest Cover

--Year--

National Forestry

3.    Risk Scenarios, their implications and potential solutions to the Vision 2050

After analyzing hitherto trends of Natural resource, it has become discernable that people will support and follow the way that they have reason to value. People have nothing to do with the agendas, which will be of little relevance to them (Redclieft, 1997). In this line, government’s agenda to conserve natural resources at national level may not influence the fundamental livelihood of general rural people. At this point mainstream science and ambiguous policy of the government will be more problematic when they fail to establish connection with the livelihoods of the people. Therefore, the vision forwarded earlier to achieve 45% of forest cover in Nepal will not be so easy. Property rights of people in uncertain politics with no democracy may exacerbate this ambitious vision. Similarly, top down management model of state during political void also play crucial role in destroying natural resources according to the vested interests of political leaders an local elites (Kanel, 2006). In addition, exclusive policy and federal state mechanism may also pose serious doubts concerning this debate that federal state may engage in recurring conflict concerning the distribution of natural resources during the period. Not only that but also inappropriate state policies fuel the ethnic conflict and class struggle within and across class, caste, and communities (Fox & Swamy, 2008). With reference to Jefferson Fox and Arun Swamy ‘resource grievances and ethnic conflicts’ occur not because of ‘objective deprivation’ but because of the ‘relative deprivation’ when people compare their situation with others ‘past & future expectations’. Amelioration to these risks may be equitable distribution of resources, democratic power sharing and (Fox & Swamy, 2008) inclusive policy interventions (Guthman, 1997). Greater participation of excluded will also help to solve problem. Most of the solutions regarding problems of natural resources may seek the political, cultural and ethnic bargaining which will be very difficult but not impossible. All these solutions are feasible, and will surely lead to the target at least 45% cover of forest in Nepal by 2050.

Development

1.    Current Scenario: Development

Development is essentially a political mater rather than to be purely practical and technical mater. Nepal has witnessed 66 years planned development that started at 1956. Before 1949, Ranas were ruling the country with narrow ideology that they did not invested on productive sector like education, health and other infrastructure development of the country but they were only concerned about consumption (Guthman, 1997). As democracy established on the ash of the Rana regime in 1949 Nepal began to follow planned development since 1956 but all the social evils like caste system under deeply rooted Bahunism and Hinduism constrained the pace of the development (Kamata, 1999). This was hidden reality until Dor Bdr Bist unfolded in 1990s. Nepal’s geophysical characteristic has been the determining factor for its development. Moreover, throughout the history, Nepal has suffered from the Big-Brother Syndrome concerning the relationship with India and China (Pyakuryal & Suvedi, 2000). Moreover, feudal mode of state mechanism ignored the aspirations from the bottom focusing only on the developmental prescription from the top (Guthman, 1997). Nepal is one of the poorest among the least developed countries in this globe and donor driven development failed badly in Nepal (Pyakuryal & Suvedi, 2000). Pyakuryal and Suvedi argue that development intervention mainly focused on the sectors like forest, agriculture water, and health and education. However, economic development in Nepal remained very slow since population growth and economic growth remained almost the same. Advocates of Economic Growth insist that when the nation becomes rich, the wealth will “trickle down” to the poor, or when the wave rises, both the rich and poor will benefit but in reality, it is cruelly against this process, the rich get higher percentage of net economic growth while the poor remain at the bottom. Discriminatory development process in Nepal resulted in a decade or longer people’s war, which has further exacerbated the overall development of Nepal (Bhurtel & Ali, 2002). According to Human Development Report 2009 Nepal’s human development index is 0.509 at national level with large disparity at the regional level this fact is further supported by NLSS-III 2011, that disproportionate distribution of poverty throughout the nation.

Future Scenarios

1.    Business as Usual Scenario Leading to 2050

Political stability and economic growth play crucial role for the development in any society. Policies and plans of the government also play deterministic role. Poor countries like Nepal donor agencies sometimes become decisive in the matter of development (Guthman, 1997). In this vain development of Nepal during 2012 to 2050, have moderate likelihoods to peak significant height. Slowly and gradually Nepal will achieve developmental success such as improved in human development index and wider extension of services and opportunity. Significant achievement will be in the sector of Natural Resources, which will provide better environment for people to live. Similarly, education and health indicators will also increase. During this period, Nepal will follow liberal economy that will help private sector to play active roles to uplift national economy. According to Rostow’s growth theory (1960), Nepal will be in Take-off Stage by the end of 2050. Natural resource based industries will be accelerated. Nepal will follow the path of equitable development accompanied with the idea of inclusion at all levels.

Figure 5: Business as Usual Scenario for Development Leading to 2050

1941

1978/79

2050

Y

1960

2001/02

X

Industrial Development

Hydro Electricity

Agriculture

Economic Development

--Year--

 

2.    Outside the Box Scenario: My vision for 2050

From 2012 to 2050, Nepal will try to achieve higher development results. New constitution will widen the way to strengthen the national economy emphasizing on products from forests, Agricultural, and Hydroelectric industries. During this period, Nepal will achieve significant progress in science and technology, which will further help technical part of the development. Both, invention of technology and extraction of resource bases will have coherence utilization since people will use these factors in a rationale ways. CPN-Moist has very higher possibility to control the upcoming politics of Nepal they are likely to establish one party democracy (i.e. China model), which will help a nation to concentrate on its goal. It has been inevitable for the state to take the dominant role for the weak economy like Nepal.  

Figure 6: Outside the Box Scenario Development: My vision for 2050

X

1941

1978/79

2050

Y

1960

2001/02

Industrial Development

Hydro Electricity

Agriculture

Economic Development

--Year--

 

3.    Risk Scenario

Path to higher development during 2012 to 2050 seems very risky; however, Nepal will follow high-risk high reward strategy during this period. Constitution Assembly has just dissolved. New election for new CA has been declared but the uncertainty still looms over the Nepalese sky regarding future politics. If Nepal fail to get full-fledged constitution before 2015 provisional plans and policies of transitional state may not be able to create the favorable environment to take the smooth pace to achieve desired development. Hitherto marginalized caste, class, communities, and geographies at the margin of the state mainstream are likely to bargain for their secure space with dignity during this period. In such scenario, state may not have enough time and resources to invest for development activity ignoring all other phenomenon at the periphery. These risks seem very challenging but the state can minimize these risks if it thinks wisely and works Strategically on the sensitive issues like autonomous federal states based on Ethnicity, Ethnic Identity and prioritizing certain groups and so on. Best way for getting rid of these problems would be strong government at the center and solid constitution with clear vision.

Figure 7: Synthesis Population, Natural Resource, and Development

Population                              Natural Resource                                Development

BAU

 

OTB

 

RISK

           

Part II

Linkages

 Population, Natural Resources, Development, and Sustainable development/Climate Change

Population, natural resources, and development are linked in such a way that trade-off between and among them will make livelihood difficult creating imbalance in ecosystem (Brown, 5 February 1997). To establish closer link among these variable sustainable development and climate change have become important dimension. According to Banskota (1993), development activity must be integrated systematically with the other variable in the surrounding environment if we are to achieve sustainable development. Socioeconomic dynamics play catalytic role for sustainable development since it determines the life style of people. Increasing population and biased development in Nepal have been fueling rural urban migration as result Kathmandu the capital of the country is facing more than 6% population growth per annum (ICIMOD, 2011). People in the resource scares areas of rural hills are in increased pressure due to severe climatic conditions, lack of market linkages, and small fragmented farms that forced them to rely heavily on natural resources like forests for their substance, which will influence surrounding ecology, which in turn affect global climate change in the long-run. Considering all the factors of the globe IPCC 4^th assessment report concludes that global warming will continue to increase even if it is stabilized at the level of 1990s for decades in the future. Human activities alter Natural resource base in less productive and less desirable condition and there comes the role for technology to fill the gap following the state policies. Various countries have been shifting towards the green technology (Sanwal, 2011 & Jodha, Jan-June 2005).

Future Scenarios

1.    Business as Usual Scenario leading to 2050

As Carl Folke et. al. argued in the paper ‘Resilience and Sustainable Development: Building adaptive capacity in a World of Transformations’(2006), social and ecological systems are both complex and evolving; it is very difficult to make future prediction. But, it is easy to say that government of Nepal will follow sustainable development path in the future. People will be able to use efficient technology as alternatives for natural resources. However, climate change seems to increase which may pose serious impacts on agricultural production, directly affecting the small farmers relying on subsistence farming (Redclift, 2005). Increased development interventions will also impact natural resources. Nepal will try to achieve increased growth for this it will intensify the agriculture since it has been the main base for national economy. Agricultural practice plays crucial role in climate change (Fussel, 2005). In such situation, poor people will become increasingly vulnerable to the climate change since they do not have enough livelihood alternatives.

2.    Out Side the Box scenario

Sustainable development in Nepal will become confusing and misleading during the period 2012 to 2050, as Nepal would focus mainly on economic development because sustainable development as such may not help it to follow the pace of the global development (Rahema, n.d.). Some intellectuals argue that there is very little, if any, sustainability within the sustainable development. Poor countries like Nepal may not help themselves to sustain its population through sustainability path since technology needed cost very high and they may not be able to afford it. Federal government of poor economy will not be able to subsidize all the technological stuffs. Increased development intervention during this period in Nepal may not follow sustainability path completely but it will try its best to address the equity and inclusion. Foreign aid would play crucial role for sustainable development in Nepal.

3.     Risk Scenario

Nepal will find sustainable development worth only in document because it will be in the race for infrastructure, agricultural and industrial development. National interest of the State will concentrate on economic development and economic development, poverty alleviation, sovereignty and social harmony will be on the top of the state policies (Leftwich, 1994). During this time, strict rules of sustainable development will constrain the overall development of Nepal. However, it must consider the case. Nepal is in the high-risk area in terms of climate change if it fails to follow the sustainability path of development it has to loss mountain biodiversity and mountain culture along with mountain habitats (ICIMOD, 2011). Due to the increased economic development both mountain and forest covers will decline drastically putting local people at high risk making them highly vulnerable eroding their adaptive and resilient capacity (Banskota, 1993). Biodiversity and mountain ecosystem will also be threatened as glaciers melt due to temperature increase. These risks will be very difficult to deal because of the lack of technology, finance, and knowledge required acting accordingly for the country like Nepal with small economy. Therefore, Nepal will establish its relation with international aid agencies and development partners. International interest to save Himalayan biodiversity will sometimes be unwanted burden for national government when respective interests contrasted.

State

Current Scenario

There are various theories defining ‘State’. State has an authoritative power such as ideological, economic, military and political, in addition, it is a territorial body therefore it is superior to other institutions (Johnston, n.d.). According to Marxist political economy approach, state is much concerned with economic structures that are supposed to govern function of the capitalist society (Driver, 1991). Nepal has been following mixed economy therefore it has been the liberal state, however roots of feudalism have no uprooted completely. Marx calls ‘capitalist state’ as an ‘executive committee’ to manage the affairs of the bourgeoisie. As Marxist theory of state found ‘state policies interpreted as functional either for a particular class or for the mode of production’, Nepal had been following such policies during Rana Regime. Driver argues that translating theoretical assumptions about capitalist state directly in to the role of the state in specific capitalist society undermines historical and geographical variations while state formation. He concludes that World-System Theory of state formation explains the state including ‘historical’ approaches to the development of world capitalist system, greater emphasis on spatial variation on in social, economic, and political structure between different zone of the world economy and emphasis on interconnectedness of the state within the world system rejecting traditional mode of endogenous development in individual society. He also discusses about society centered theory and state-centered theory of state.

Future Scenario

1.     Business as Usual Scenario

State has important role to play in controlling, monitoring, managing, producing, and distributing different resources among the different stakeholders in the society. In this regards State can play decisive role concerning population, natural resource, and developmental changes. In Nepal, state sometimes makes a headline for debate regarding its inaction concerning its economic, political and development role. Some of the experts argue that Nepal is following the path of failed state, as it has not been able to address the issues of equality, inclusion, and democracy. Occasionally Nepal has been termed as fragile state since it fails to sustain its territorial integrity as India claims the parts in Terai. Sometimes role of the state contradicts with different social institutions i.e. Community forestry while managing natural resources. According to theory, state must act considering factors like economic, social, geographical, historical, and political at the time of state formation. Now Nepal is in it’s transmogrify and state has been playing minimal role, which will not result in effective economic development.

2.     Out Side the Box Scenario

Current Political deadlock and failure of democratic government to accelerate development pace after 1990s inevitable indicates the increased role for the state in Nepal during 2012 to 2050. Human society has diversity of interests, preferences, values and ideas regarding to resources whether to promote or to protect (Leftwich, 1994) and it is inevitable for them to engage in conflict, cooperation and negotiation regarding their use, production, and distribution at all level. Since the central point of any development is how to utilize resource, power relations play crucial role in such situation, according to Leftwich, developmental state seeks vital role to play. Coming decades in Nepalese history will be filled with these types of vicititudes since state will be in the process of transformation and restructuring with federal system. In such scenario, Nepal has greater likelihood to become strong state driven by developmental ideology in order to control clamors and significant influence of feudal class to achieve faster economic growth. During this period Nepal will be lead by single party democracy for which CPN-Moist has greater likelihood to take the lead.

3.     Risk Scenario

 Risk for Nepal as developmental state seem very obscure since Moist has greater likelihood to take the lead during 2012 to 2050 but situation at the local level will be surrounded by so many risks related to the resource distribution, protection and promotion during this period which will be greater risk for the developmental state. Moreover, direct intervention of the state will constrain the inalienable rights and liberties of individual. Similarly it will interfere freedom of choice, distort free play of market (Leftwitch, 1994)and consequently it my harm the target of enhanced economic development in Nepal. Nepal must be determined to tackle these risks from now. Strong leadership will be required to take bold decision in favor of the enhanced development. State must be able to fulfill the basic needs of its population and insure equitable distribution of livelihood assets. State will have to establish lively relationship with development partners from international arena.

Discourse

1.    Current Scenario  

Discourse is independent of individuals or institutions, but is shaped by systems or regulatory processes described as discursive formations. Discourse analysis allows us to understand a statement rationally or interpret it meaningfully, by unfolding ontological and epistemological premises embedded in language that we are dealing with. Similarly, discourse analysis is the study of rationality and how it is expressed in a particular historical context. While critical discourse analysis attempts to uncover the ideologies contributing to the production and reproduction of power and has a political aim. It looks for how a discourse limits our understanding (Pedersen, 2009). Environmental impacts of developmental interventions like hydro-electricity power project and activities like deforestation are different to different stakeholders in Nepal. According to Guthman, deforestation during 1970s was regarded as the result of population growth. Moreover, the production of environmental intervention and the production of environmental knowledge have a close link, which are intrinsically bound with power relation (Guthman, 1997). She tried to analyze contemporary mainstream environmental and developmental theories since Rana Regime to 2008 in Nepal. She had divided this period in to 3 different aid regime in order to depict the linkages among population, natural resources, development and environmental degradation through the lens of critical discourse analysis. She finds that facts about environmental degradation in Nepal at that time were no thing more than the representation of the constructed reality which was very hard to believe. Therefore she concludes that during the post War development project, environmental and developmental discourses have not only articulated but also modified to justify the change.   

Future Scenarios

1.    Business as usual

Language of the environmental degradation will engage in hot dispute during 2012 to 2050 since the situation of environment will have faster rate of change due to the population pressure and developmental intervention. In this context Nepal will become hot spot for international players to play the word game since they are to trigger the development pace and therefore are powerful. In such situation scenario will be interpreted according to their interest.

2.    Out of the Box Scenario

 During the period, 2012 to 2050 Nepal will have significant economic development under the developmental state and will be able to establish its own identity with dignity in an international arena. Therefore it will develop proper developmental discourse in order to communicate the situation of development intervention and ecological degradation among the diverse stake holders. Nepal will utilize foreign aid according to own priority.

3.    Risk Scenario

Risks in this case are very sensitive since the language or statement used can have multi faceted, slippery and open-ended meanings to different individual according to the context. In such situation practice to develop own discourse may communicate misleading messages in the beginning. So that in order to overcome this risk government have to emphasize on research and development in this sector.

 Epilogue

In 2050, Nepal will have 35 million people enjoying descent environment covered with 45% of green forest and desired development. According to DTM model and my critique population of Nepal will be 35 million after 38 years. Participatory forest management policy of federal government will provide wider space for local people and private sector to participate in managing local forests that will result in 45% of the land covered by forest by the end of 2050.

Nepal will follow the developmental path in an increased pace and it will be developmental state during the period. Overall development of Nepal will be triggered mainly by economic development. The strong government of developmental state will maintain sustainability. Sustainability as it is may not be rationality for Nepal to follow according to international agreements. Primarily Nepal has to achieve higher economic growth to drag the overall development. Aid effectiveness in Nepal is likely to be limited to   formality but rather increased pressure of aid agencies.

Refrences                                                

Banskota, M. (1993). Integrated Planning for Mountain Environment and Development (Paper Presentea at the Tenth Annivrswary Symposium of ICIMOD. Kathmandu, Nepal: International Centre for Inegreted Mountain Development (ICIMOD),.

Bhurtel, J., & Ali, S. H. (2002). The Green Roots of Read Rebillion: Environmental Degradation and the Rise of the Maoist Movement.

Brown, K. (5 February 1997). The Political Ecology of Biodiversity, Conservation and Development in Nepal's Terai: Confused Meanings, Means and Ends. Ecological Economics 24 (1998) , 73-87.

Butteriss, C., Wolfenden, J. A., & oodridge, A. P. (2000). Discourse Analysis:A Technique to Assist in Environmental Conflicts (Paper submitted to Australian Journal of Environmental Management, 2000). New England Ecological Economics Group, Centre for Water Policy Research, University of New England.

CBS. (September 2011). Preliminary Result of National Population Census 2011. Kathmandu, Nepal: Central Bureau of Statistics.

Driver, F. (1991). Political Geography and State Formation: DIsputed Territory. In Progress in Human Geography (pp. 268-280).

Ehrlich, P. R., & Ehrlich, A. R. (2009). The Population Bomb Revisited. The Electronic Journal of Sustainable Development , 63-71.

Feeney, G., Thapa, S., & Sharma, K. (2001). One and a Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal. 2001 ICDDR,B: Centre for Health and Population Research.

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