2. Jyotsna: Nepal HDI Updates...

2. Jyotsna: Nepal HDI Updates...







A PAPER ON
HDI CONCEPTS AND DERIVATIVES FOR NEPAL, UNDP


Submitted to:
Prof. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Population and Development
Devs 504
KUSOA




Submitted by:
Jyotsna Kakshapati
Population and Development
DEVS 504
MDevS


7th June’2011

Kathmandu University



Abstract

The title of this paper is HDI derivatives for Nepal, UNDP. The Human Development Report (HDR) has been produced by UNDP. This report has successfully presented human development since 1990 through the annual human development reports.

The objective of this report is to advocate human development. The concept of human development has become widely accepted and is being used as a comprehensive measure of development performance on account of the conceptual and practical work supported by UNDP both at the global and national levels.

My study objective is to find the linkage between Human Development, Population, Natural Resources, and Development. And also find other theoretical linkages with contexts discussed in this report,
This paper contains these main topics:
i. Conceptualizing Human Development Index in general and in context of Nepal
ii. Linkages of Human Development with different concepts (BAU and OTB)
iii. Criticisms and conclusion
I shall be focusing on following areas: paper context, theoretical and analytical category, theoretical lens analysis, Judgment and Synthesis from this learning.
After reading the report I have been to broaden my knowledge regarding Nepal in terms of human development, where it stands, its improvements. Along with these, I have also been able to broaden my understanding about the relationship and linkage between population, natural resources and development with human development.




Table of Contents
1. Summary ………………………………………………………….. 1
2. Institutional Author ……………………………………………….. 3
3. Subject paper context ……………………………………………… 5
4. Theoretical and analytical category of the paper ………………….. 6
5. Multiple theoretical lenses analysis ………………………………. 14
6. Judgment ………………………………………………………….. 20
7. Synthesis …………………………………………………………… 21
8. Conclusion …………………………………………………………. 22
9. References ………………………………………………………… 23


1. Summary
The concept of human development has been evolving and expanding since the 1980s, when it was launched by the eminent economists and philosophers, Mahabub ul Haq and Amartya Sen.
The Human Development Index (HDI) was first released as part of the United Nation’s Human Development Report 1990. It signaled a move towards a more holistic view of development which had previously focused almost exclusively on income per capita. Related indices soon emerged—among these, the gender-related development index (GDI), the gender empowerment measure (GEM), and the human poverty index (HPI).
The HDR report stated: “development is much more than just the expansion of income and wealth… it is the process of enlarging people’s choices” (UNDP, 1990, p. 10)
Nepal has produced four human development reports to date. The first report in 1998 introduced human development into the public domain and planning process in the country. Subsequently three thematic reports were produced: one in 2001 and the other in 2004 and 2009. The 2001 Nepal Human Development Report (NHDR) dealt with poverty reduction and governance while the 2004 report was on empowerment and poverty reduction and 2009 report on State Transformation and Human Development.

My paper will be based on data of NHDR 2004 and NHDR 2009.
Nepal is among those countries of the world that are characterized by low level of human development. Nepal ranks 138th out of 169 countries with 0.428 HDI. HDI throughout the country varies widely by urban-rural divide, by ecological belt, and by development region and sub-regions. Urban areas in general have higher HDI than their rural counterparts for obvious reasons – better access to health care, education and also income opportunities.
There is some indication of the fact that the trend is one of declining rural-urban differences with time. Among the three ecological regions in Nepal the highest HDI has consistently been in the hill region, with the lowest in the mountains. Among the districts, Kathmandu and Mugu stand at the two extremes of the HDI scores in Nepal (HDR, 2009).




Human development has improved over time, but the trend of spatial inequality generally continues to be roughly the same. The central hills have a consistently high HDI throughout mainly because of the highly urbanized capital region of the Kathmandu Valley with the provision of services and facilities unmatched by any other region in Nepal. This shows that Development focuses on Kathmandu and that those who could afford to do so moved from the rural areas to Kathmandu during the conflict. It also implies shortcomings in the government’s policy on growth with equity.

In this paper human development has been looked upon through different perspectives. And an effort of linking it is also done. Human development is a product of natural resources, population and development. And absence of any one component will degrade the human development.
An attempt to find out the limitations regarding HDI has also been done. Environment which is a crucial aspect all human beings for survival has been not yet included in the human development approach.















2. Institutional Author: UNDP

2.1 Introduction
UNDP is the UN's global development network, an organization advocating for change and connecting countries to knowledge, experience and resources to help people build a better life. We are on the ground in 166 countries, working with them on their own solutions to global and national development challenges.
The annual Human Development Report, commissioned by UNDP, focuses the global debate on key development issues, providing new measurement tools, innovative analysis and often controversial policy proposals. The global Report's analytical framework and inclusive approach carry over into regional, national and local Human Development Reports, also supported by UNDP.

2.2 UNDP Nepal
UNDP first established its office in Nepal in 1963 to support the Nepalese in their struggle against poverty. Since 1963, UNDP has worked at building linkages that address effective design and implementation of 'poverty alleviation' programmes in Nepal.

2.2 Role and Influence In our country
UNDP in Nepal concentrates its efforts for greater impact in the most remote, poor, and/or conflict-affected areas of the mid- and far-western development regions and the Terai, where its rights-based interventions are targeted towards the disadvantaged and vulnerable groups. The UNDP programmes seek opportunities for joint programming with other United Nations organizations and engage in joint planning and monitoring of development activities in selected districts.
The UNDP programmes are prepared in consultation with the Government, civil society organizations, United Nations organizations and other development partners, and appraised at a joint strategy meeting. As the Government coordinating agency, the Ministry of Finance heads the Country Programme Board, which guides the implementation of the Programme and the cross-sectoral linkages are ensured through outcome boards. The implementation guidelines are revised in line with the results management guidelines, to support national ownership and accountability. UNDP and the Government exercise flexibility in implementing sensitive activities critical for the peace process.

2.3 The Current Thematic Areas of UNDP Nepal are

• Transitional Governance
• Inclusive Growth & Sustainable Livelihood
• Peace Building and Recovery
• Energy, Environment and Natural Disaster Management
• HIV/AIDS


2.4 Operation Area
UNDP's activities span almost 75 districts and 1,000 out of 4,000 villages. The number of projects ongoing was 2010 is 32. Of the $43 million spent in 2010 an almost equal proportion came from UNDP sources and bilateral/multilateral agencies. The main donor partner was DFID, which funded 23% of programme expenditure.




2.5 Fund and Aid
In 2010, the expenditure reached $ 43 million across the five thematic areas such as HIV/AIDS, Transitional Governance, Peace Building, Energy, Environment and Natural Disasters and Livelihoods.
The highest proportion of expenditure went on slowing the spread of HIV and AIDS as UNDP is managing multi-million dollar funding from DFID and the Global Fund. The second largest expenditure went on Constitution making project. In 2010, the administrative and central management costs accounted for 7.85% of this expenditure.


3. Subject Paper Context
The Human Development Approach (HDA) emerged as an attempt to put people back at the centre of development discussions and action plans. The approach is complex and it is associated with a number of characteristics, such as those of peoples’ choices, capabilities, improvement of peoples’ basic positive freedoms, etc.

The Human Development Index (HDI) is the instrument towards which HD became known worldwide. The HDI is an attempt to represent human well-being and allow comparisons among different countries/regions. From an operational sense, the HDI is the first broad-ranging representation of the Capability and Basic Needs Approaches. Its empirical relevance has proved to be very meaningful to UN agencies and governments all over the world. And yet, the HDI has been extensively criticized mainly for its choice of indicators.

In spite of the income gaps existing between the developed and the developing countries, there is room for optimism with respect to the achievements in the area of human development. Economic growth matters, but growth does not automatically translate into higher levels of human development; redistribution policies and equality of opportunities are important. Poverty alleviation is an intrinsic part of human development.

Earlier HDRs concentrated only in HDI but after 1995 other indices like GDI, GEI and HPI were also introduced. HDI reports covers issues in inequality, life expectancy, income, education, gender, in different contexts which are backed up by data. For example, Nepal has HDR reports written focusing in different thematic areas.

In case of Nepal, HDI has improved in the last 30 years and is ranked 3rd in “top movers” in UNDP report 2010. Nepal’s impressive advancement in HDI, according to HDR 2010, is due to remarkable progress in health and education. The report cites major public policy efforts as the reason. Nepal’s impressive progress in health and education can be traced to major public policy efforts. Substantial remittance inflow from migrant workers was also a reason. Therefore Nepal needs to learn from its own success in health and education and apply the same determination to tackle the areas in which it is still lagging behind.
4. Theoretical and analytical category
Theoretical Category
4.1 HUMAN DEVELOPMENT INDEX (HDI)

The HDI is a composite index aggregating three basic dimensions into a summary measure, which is published annually, using country level information, in the HDR. The motivation behind the structure of the HDI was powerfully expressed in the 1990 HDR in the following terms:
“Human development is a process of enlarging people's choices. In principle, these choices can be infinite and change over time. But at all levels of development, the three essential ones are for people to lead a long and healthy life, to acquire knowledge and to have access to resources needed for a decent standard of living. If these essential choices are not available, many other opportunities remain inaccessible.” (UNDP. 1990. p. 10.)
• HDI represents three dimensions:
1. living a long and healthy life (measured by life expectancy),
2. being educated (measured by adult literacy and enrolment at the primary, secondary and tertiary level) and
3. having a decent standard of living (measured by purchasing power parity, PPP, income).

4.2 HDI in context of Nepal










Nepal’s HDI value for 2010 is 0.428—in the low human development category—positioning the country at 138 out of 169 countries and areas but looking at the HDI of different years from 1980 to 2010 we can see that:
• Between 1980 and 2010, Nepal’s HDI value rose from 0.210 to 0.428, a 104 percent jump.
• Nepal’s life expectancy between 1980-2010 grew by 19 years, expected years of schooling by close to five years and mean years of schooling by almost three years
• A child born today in Nepal can expect to live 19 years longer than a child born in 1980
• More than four of every five children of school-age in Nepal now attend primary school, compared to just one in five 30 years ago.
Since 1980 Nepal has made the greatest strides in improving human development is Nepal, according to the UN’s annual Human Development Index (HDI). Report states that Nepal is the fastest movers in the Human Development Index (HDI) since 1970 and is 3rd among the ‘Top Ten Movers' list in terms of progress in health and education. Between 1980 and 2010, Nepal’s HDI value increased from 0.210 to 0.428, an average increase of 104 percent, while Nepal’s Gross National income per capita increased by 94 percent during the same period.
I have looked upon HDI only for the following areas and groups:

• the whole country;
• urban and rural Nepal;
• 3 ecological belts;
• 5 development regions


HDI throughout the country varies widely by urban-rural divide, by ecological belt, and by development region and sub-regions. On average, urban dwellers have much higher human development than their rural counterparts: 0.630 vs. 0.482; those who live in the Hills enjoy the highest standards, while those of the Mountains have the lowest. Among the development regions, the Mid-Western region has the lowest level of development.
This implies shortcomings in the government’s policy on growth with equity

4.3 The HDI over time
Human development has improved over time, but the trend of spatial inequality generally continues to be roughly the same. In particular, the HDI value increased by 8 percent from 0.471 in 2001 to 0.509 for the whole country in 2006, an annual rate of 1.6 percent. Yet there has been no change in the status of rural or urban areas and ecological regions, as the HDI ranking shows. However, there is a change in the ranking of development regions. In 2001, the Central Development Region stood third; by 2006, it had moved up to the first place. This derives in part from the fact that development centers on Kathmandu and that those who could afford to do so moved from the rural areas to Kathmandu during the conflict. By contrast, as in 1996 and 2001, the people of Far- and Mid-Western development regions still rank lowest. Insecurity in the last ten years has further affected public services and private activities more in rural than in urban.
4.4 GEM /GDI
In most nations of the world, women – who comprise half of humanity – are systematically deprived of opportunities to enhance their capabilities by cultural and religious sanctions, traditions, and legal systems and face various forms of exclusion from participating in the economic and political life of the nation. The exploration of this theme (UNDP 1995) introduced the GDI and GEM as measures of gender inequality and showed the enormous disparities that exist between females and males with respect to the basic indicators of human development.
GDI measures gender disparity to reflect inequalities between female and male in the three dimensions as of HDI. The values of GDI lie between 0 and 1. (I.e. GDI - higher, higher the inequality, GDI –low, lower the inequality.

The Gender Empowerment Measure (GEI) is a composite indicator that captures gender inequality in three key areas:
(i) the extent of women's political participation and decision-making,
(ii) economic participation and decision making-power and
(iii) the power exerted by women over economic resources.
• In case of Nepal, Women are much less empowered than men in the political, economic and professional domains.
• Women’s share of earned income is about one half of that of men, while their participation in the political process is only one fourth of that of men.
• The gap widens in their participation in professional and administrative jobs.
• Not only among men and women but there seems to be disparity between rural and urban women as well

4.5 Human Poverty Index (HPI)

Poverty is a multi-dimensional concept. It indicates lack of access to resources and opportunities, illiteracy, poor health, lack of sanitation, deprivation of basic rights and security, and powerlessness. Poverty, when perceived or measured in economic perspective, is known as income poverty, and the incidence of poverty (poverty rate or head count ratio) is the most commonly used measurement. By contrast, poverty when perceived or measured from a socio-political perspective – health, education, and political freedom – is known as capability poverty.
Introduced in 1997 HPI is a composite index measuring deprivations in the three basic dimensions— a long and healthy life, knowledge and a decent standard of living — and also capturing social exclusion.

The HPI-1 measures the average deprivations in three basic dimensions of human development – a long and healthy life, knowledge and economic provisioning. In addition to three dimensions, HPI-2 takes account of one more dimension – social inclusion - and measures the average deprivations in four basic dimensions. The values of both measures lie between 0 to 100 per cent. The higher value of HPI-1 or HPI-2 corresponds to higher average deprivation in the three or four basic dimensions of human deprivation.
4.6 HPI overtime in Nepal

HPI fell from 39.6 in 2001 to 35.4 in 2006 for the whole country. Although the decline was found across all geographic divisions, its magnitude varies significantly with ecological belts and regions. Between 2001 and 2006, the larger decline took place in the Mountain and Hills rather than the Tarai; among development regions, the decrease was higher in the Far-Western and Mid-Western Development Regions.

These findings imply that despite the government policy of balanced regional development, the regions and areas most deprived in the past remain deprived today. This suggests a need for renewed emphasis on their development. This failure stems in part from the lack of fair representation and participation of people from the poor and deprived areas, and the rule by the centre and the more advantaged regions.

Analytical Category
1. HD and Development
Human development Index (HDI) is a concept which comes under development theory.
As our course is divided into three parts namely;
(i) Population,
(ii) Natural resources and
(iii) Development,
The concept of HDI directly links with the third part i.e. development. So, in this section I will try to link HDI with development theory i.e. Human Development Approach
The main aim of Economic Development theory was to improve quality of life. The problem with that was to believe that economic growth was the main, and the only way to reach this goal. From the criticism related to the economic development theory emerged the idea of Human Development. This conception brings intrinsically a deep concept of human life, which is closely related to poverty and well-being discussions. Human Development is a wider concept, which put people back to the centre of the aims. In this sense the human development is a concern to all human beings not exclusively to those who are under economic deprivation.
The philosophy of the human development approach stresses freedom of choice by developing and strengthening human capabilities and by an emphasis on all human rights. Though freedom of choice is important to neo-liberals, it lies in increasing utility and satisfying preferences; they therefore place primary stress on civil and political rights, traditionally known as the “negative rights” as opposed to the “positive” economic, social and cultural rights. In the human development approach, the objective is the expansion of human opportunities and capabilities, while for neo-liberalist is the maximization of economic welfare
The Human Development Approach emerged as an attempt to put people back in the centre of the discussions and actions related to economic and social policies. The HD paradigm is defined as a process that covers all aspects of development – whether economic, international trade, budget deficit, fiscal policy, savings, investments in basic technology, social services or safety nets for the poor. “No aspect of the development model falls outside its scope, but the main advantage is the widening of people’s choices and the enrichment of their lives” (Ul Haq, 1998: 20).
The HD assumption and principles are rooted as a combination result from the previous approaches such as Economic Development, Basic Need (BN) and the Capability Approach (CA). In general terms, the HDI was the main instrument through which the HD approach became known. The belief among the HDI creators is that the index is an alternative to the GNP and income based measures and development which was led by economic growth. In such a sense, the HDI has the responsibility to be a multidimensional index.

Streeten’s (1994) says that human development is important for 6 reasons:
(1) First and above all because it is an end in itself that needs no further justification;
(2) Human development is a means to higher productivity;
(3) It slows human reproduction by lowering the desired family size;
(4) Human development is good for the physical environment;
(5) Reduced poverty contributes to a healthy civil society increased democracy and great social stability;
(6) Human development has political appeal, and so it may reduce civil disturbances and increase political stability.

The above highlighted points show that HD is in one way or the other related with population and environment (natural resources) which I will be dealing in the next section.

2. Human Development and Population
Linking HD with population has been done using the Malthus theory of population

Malthus theory population growth in geometric ratio, food supply in arithmetic ratio shortage of food supply famine, hunger, natural resources depletion, death, adverse impact on livelihood( income, life expectancy,) result low HD

Malthus in his theory has stated that the population grows in a geometric ratio and food in arithmetic ratio. His theory explains that with population exceeding the food supply, people will have to face the consequences of famine, hunger, natural resources depletion and even death (life expectancy). With such penalties the livelihood of people will be adversely affected. Especially poor people with few livelihood assets will suffer the most. Which indicates that people’s standard of living is reduced, their income source decreases. All these factors have an overall effect on the HD i.e. low HD.

The idea that there is a relationship between population growth and development was first postulated by Thomas Malthus who wrote an Essay on the Principles of Population whose main assumption was that food production for subsistence is growing at arithmetic progression that is 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 while population growth was increasing in a geometric progression that is 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32 and so on. Hence in whatever constant the increment of the arithmetic series the geometric series will outrun them with time (Malthus, 1798). In this case Malthus applied directly the relationship between population growth and food production especially in countries which live at subsistence level like in most developing countries. These poor countries would never be able to raise much above subsistence level of per capita income unless they initiated preventive checks on their population growth such as abstinence from marriage either for a time or permanently. Later these control measures of population were extended to include contraception, abortions and infanticides in some societies like the hunters and gatherers. If little resolves were given in controlling the population the country will fall into misery such as diseases and famine (Todaro, 1992).
The optimistic approach on the relationship between population and development was later produced by Boserup in 1965 who postulated the view that increasing population densities will lead to corresponding increase to agricultural production because of more intensive use of land and development of market forces. This view was further confirmed by URT (2003) who stated that population pressure alone does not degrade land resources but it creates a situation that requires good land management to enhance suitable production.
As a whole the Marxists viewed that the population problem in the world was not population growth per se but the economic structure of the society or country. The relationship between population growth and development hinges on the fact that each person should produce more than what he consumes, more people should equal to more wealth and increased poverty and inequality is the result of the capitalist economic system (Umalele, 1989; Stone, 2000).
However, the Neo-Malthusians have reaffirmed the relationship between population and development by stating that population poverty prevents the adoption of new technology and access to land and deep ocean marine resources. Therefore, it is important to strengthen the fight against poverty in order to empower people to adopt and sustain resource management both locally and at global level. This stand was emphasized by environmentalist like Ehrlich and Ehrlich (1990) who produced an I=PAT model which stressed the link between population, affluence and technology (I= Impact, P= Population, A= Affluence and T=Technology). The main assumption of this model is that the more people there are, the greater is the turn on remaining resources. On the other hand this model shows that population growth and distribution can have an impact on the quality and quantity of critical natural resources. It is the concern of the environmentalist which led to the ratification of several conventions such as Agenda 21 in 1992 and the Kyoto Convention 2005 which emphasized sustainable use of resources in order to avoid disasters like global warming.


5. Multiple theoretical lenses analysis
In this section, analyzing human development through different lenses is done
1. Human Development (HD) And Economic Growth (EG)
I will try to find out the link between HD and EG because these two are totally different concepts. HD focuses people in the center while EG which focuses economic aspect other than people. Yet there is a strong link between them. Therefore, I have tried to find out the links between economic growth and human development, in two ways; one from economic growth to human development, and the other, conversely, from human development to economic growth.
Human development has recently been advanced as the ultimate objective of human activity in place of economic growth (UNDP Human Development Reports, 1990). Its intellectual antecedents may be traced to the earlier basic needs approach of the ILO and the World Bank, as well as Sen's concept of capabilities. Human development has been defined as enlarging people's choices in a way which enables them to lead longer, healthier and fuller lives (UNDP, 1990). There exists a strong connection between economic growth (EG) and human development (HD).
Here I have viewed HD as the central objective of human activity and economic growth as potentially a very important instrument for advancing it. At the same time, achievements in HD themselves can make a contribution to economic growth.
There are thus two links: one runs from EG to HD, as the resources from national income are allocated to activities contributing to HD; the other runs from HD to EG, indicating how, in addition to being an end in itself, HD helps increase national income.
Link from EG to HD
GNP contributes to HD mainly through household and government activity. GDP has a strong effect on literacy and health outcomes, both through private expenditures at micro level and government programs at macro level
In general, poor households spend a higher proportion of their incomes on HD items than those with higher incomes. If poor households receive extra income, they increase their expenditure on items which contribute directly to HD, e.g. food expenditure and calorie consumption significantly, potable water, education and health. Therefore, at the micro level individual and household consumption can be an important element in increasing human development and may respond more closely to the real needs of the population than do government








At a macro level, the distribution of the increased income from economic growth will also have a strong impact on human development. Since poorer households spend a higher proportion of their income on goods which directly promote better health and education, economic growth whose benefits are directed more towards the poor will have a greater impact on human development, via increased food expenditure as well as on education.
The government must identify priority sectors such as primary education and health that have the highest potential for HD improvement. Government expenditures for HD should be distributed predominantly to low income groups and areas since it is here that the highest marginal impact will be had. Government must also have the institutional capacity to efficiently allocate these expenditures. Studies by Rajkumar and Swaroop (2002) have demonstrated that the effectiveness of public expenditure is conditional on the quality of governance, with government accountability likely to play an important role.

Link From HD to EG
As people become more healthy, well nourished and educated they contribute more to economic growth. Higher levels of HD, in addition to being an end in themselves, affect the economy through enhancing people's capabilities and consequently their creativity and productivity. Clearly, the health and education of a population represent one of the main determinants of the composition and growth of output.
For example: a) health, primary and secondary education and nutrition raise the productivity of workers, rural and urban; b) secondary education, including vocational, facilitates the acquisition of skills and managerial capacity; c) tertiary education supports the development of basic science, the appropriate selection of technology imports and the domestic adaptation and development of technologies; d) secondary and tertiary education also represent critical elements in the development of key institutions, of government, the law, the financial system, among others, all essential for economic growth.



1. Human Development and Natural Resources
Human development indicators Link to the environment
Life expectancy at birth Lack of adequate access to natural resources for food, clean air and safe water as well as vulnerability to natural disasters affects the health and life span of an individual.
Adult literacy rate



Enrolment ratio Scarcity of natural resources in rural areas often means that family members (particularly females) are required to help in time-consuming household chores (e.g. collecting fuel wood or water) rather than educational activities or school.
GDP per capita Lack of healthy natural resources (e.g. fertile land) means less income from agricultural activities. Natural disasters also have a major impact on GDP.


Environment and well being: the environment comprises a diversity of ecosystems from forests grasslands and agro economy to fresh water systems. Each provides a set of benefits to human health, well being, and livelihood from the direct provisioning of goods to more indirect benefits, such as through regulating or supporting ecosystem services. The world’s poor depend disproportionately on natural resources to provide for their systems of small scale agriculture, grazing, harvesting, hunting, fishing, without access to infrastructure of safe drinking water, electricity, fuel and transportation, poor people rely on natural resources to meet their needs.
Environment and poverty: Environmental degradation is a product of the activities of both rich and poor. Deforestation is partly done by local demand for agricultural land, construction materials, but even more fundamentally driven by the industrialized world’s demand for timber and the growing international trade in forest products. Green house gas emissions in world’s developed countries have largely driven global climate change which threatens human well-being, ecosystem functioning and biodiversity.

Ecosystem and food Security: all food ultimately is derived from the ecosystem (natural resources). For an agricultural country like its importance is more. Inappropriate intensive and extensive agricultural techniques cause loss of biodiversity, soil erosion, and loss of soil fertility etc. These forms of environmental degradation can cause irreversible losses in food availability on land and in rivers as well.

Environment and Health: Natural resource degradation adversely affects human health through polluted air, water, bacteria, and parasites. Many of today’s emergent or resurgent disease, such as encephalitis, dengue fever and malaria are on rise because of human disruption of environment and natural resources.

The figures below show how low HDI of country like Nepal is closely bonded with natural resources and environment.


















6. Judgment
Rethinking Development and the Role of the Environment

Nature resources and environment provide essential goods and services for human development. Human well-being and quality of life depend crucially on the quantity and quality of food, water, energy and biodiversity available to man. Malnutrition, inadequate water supply and environmental pollution pose serious problems to human health. From an environmental perspective shortage of arable land and water stress are important drivers for food vulnerability. Unsafe drinking water and indoor air pollution are the most serious environmental culprits, in view of current loss of human health. Biodiversity, crucial for delivering ecosystem services, is deteriorating at an unprecedented rate. Africa and Asia face the highest loss rates currently. The most important pressure factor is agricultural expansion. In the future, climate change could be a very important pressure on biodiversity as well. Further increasing protected areas, reducing land conversion by intensification of agriculture and putting a halt to piecemeal encroachment along roads may be helpful actions.

To guarantee the important role of environment for development, it is crucial that environmental concerns are integrated much better in the development agenda. This has to be carried out on local and national levels and be enhanced by international policy making. Without an integrated approach to social and economic development and environment, human development cannot be reached in a sustainable manner.








7. Synthesis
Linkage between Population, Natural Resources and Development with Human Development

As shown in above diagram, Human Development (HD) is the product of 3 components i.e. population, natural resources and development. Absence of any one component will result in low human development.
Population, environment and development are central facts and values of human existence and experience. Actually their qualities and relations combine to shape the human prospects in all times and all places. Proper utilization of environmental resources has a big impact on the development of any community because sustainable utilization of resources leads to sustainable development (Ehrlich & Ehrlich, 1990; Yanda & Madulu, 2003). On the other hand, deep-rooted poverty leads to an overdependence on a single resource for livelihood and undermines the capacity of the population to have sustainable resource management. This problem is more critical in developing countries where rapid population growth leads to the invasion of marginal lands that in turn encourages environmental degradation and poverty.

But why is there no conceptual human development approach to the environment? Have the linkages between human development and the environment been taken for granted?
“An indicator quantifies and simplifies phenomena and helps understand complex realities.” If HDI does not include environmental indicators, then essentially we may be saying that environment is not a reality of human development. But in examining all of the indicators used to form the indices it is apparent that the state of the environment has a direct impact on many of these indicators. The environmental dimension is as critical an aspect of human development as health, income and education.

After reviewing literatures on HDI, certain limitations were recognized in it like:
• It is a crude index which attempts to catch in one simple number a complex reality about human development and deprivation, according to Prof Amartya Sen.
• The choice of variables used in the HDI is not satisfactory. The aspects of well-being included in the HDI (which we refer to in what follows as the core HDI dimensions) obviously excludes other dimensions, such as equity, political freedoms, human rights, sustainability and happiness, corruption – just to name a few.
• HDI “ignores the environmental dimensions of development, especially the relationships between the performance of countries on the environmental and human development dimensions.” This point can be justified with link between HD and environment as presented in the above section.
8. Conclusion
Since its introduction in the first Human Development Report in 1990, the Human Development Index (HDI) has attracted great interest in policy and academic circles, as well as in the media and national audiences around the world. Its popularity can be attributed to the simplicity of its characterization of development - an average of achievements in health, education and income – and to its underlying message that development is much more than economic growth.
Yet the HDI’s very simplicity prompted critiques from the start, with some contending that it was too simplistic, while others who accepted its self-imposed limitations still questioned its choice of indicators and its computational methodology.
From the linkages between environment (natural resources) and HD it is evident that environment is a crosscutting issue in human development. Yet there are very few, if any, HDRS and NHDRs that use environmental indices or even indicators.

9. References
Against the Human Development Index Comment Posted May 22, 2009, Bryan Caplan – Library of Economics and Liberty

Banskota, M. (n.d.). The environmental perspective on sustainable human development. Readings in Human Development, 191 - 212.

Hastings, David A. (2009) Filling Gaps in the Human Development Index. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Working Paper WP/09/02

Hastings, David A. (2011). A "Classic" Human Development Index with 232 Countries. HumanSecurityIndex.org Information Note linked to data

Hopkins M. Human development revisited: A new UNDP report. World Development, 1991. vol 19, no. 10, 1461–1468.

Klugman J., Rodríguez F. and Choi H., Human Development Research Paper 2011/01, The HDI 2010: New Controversies, Old Critiques

Linking Environment to Human Development: A Deliberate choice. Uganda Human Development Report 2005.

Mbonile M.J. and Kivelia J., Population, Environment and Development in Kinondoni District, Tanzania

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1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...

1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...


Report on
“One and a Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”
Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma





Ajita Pokhrel





Submitted to
Prof. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Kathmandu University School of Arts



7th June 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE NO
Acknowledgement
Table of contents
Abstract
Authorial Context 1
Summary of the paper 3
Subject paper Context 8
Theoretical Report 9
A. Demographic Transition Model 9
B. Population Growth Theory 11
C. Population Doubling Time 11
D. Malthus Theory 12
E. Boserup Theory 13
F. Population Pyramid 13
G. Canan Optimum Population Theory (OTB) 13
Analysis of the report 15
Multiple Theoretical Lenses 16
A. Relation with population theory 16
B. Relation with Natural resource theory 18
C. Relation with development theory 21
Judgment 24
Outside the box 25
Synthesis 28
Conclusion 30
References 31

















Abstract
The report on “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” is prepared by Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma for Ministry of Environment and population.
The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between the population, development and natural resources, which is also the main goal of our course itself. The other objective of this paper is to identify the different cause of rising population and analyze where Nepal is at demographic transition model. The effort has been also made to show how environment has degraded in Nepal as a result of population growth. To show both positive and negative linkages between population and environment; theory of Malthus and Boserup are also presented.
Likewise this paper also presents the summary of four different scenario of future population of Nepal presented in paper “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” and includes the criticism of demographic transition model.









 
Authorial Context
This chapter presents the brief introduction and information of two authors Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, of the paper “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”.
A. Shyam Thapa:
Shyam Thapa, PhD, is a Scientist with the Department of Reproductive Health and Research (RHR) at WHO headquarters in Geneva. He provides strategic, technical and management support for research in reproductive health particularly as regards user perspectives in family planning, young people's sexual and reproductive health and the prevention of unsafe abortion.
Before joining WHO, Thapa was the Director of Policy and Research for the Saving Newborn Lives (SNL) program of Save the Children US based in Washington, DC. In this position he was primarily responsible for the management, strategic development, implementation and technical support of community-based randomized control trials and operations research in newborn health and survival in 18 countries. Prior to that, he held various research and evaluation positions in reproductive health, youth and family planning with Family Health International (FHI) at both its Arlington, Virginia, and Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, offices in the US. On deputation from FHI, he served for several years as a resident technical advisor to the Government of Nepal, working with the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Population and Environment, the National Planning Commission and the USAID.
Thapa has over 20 years of experience in policy and program development, health systems research, program planning, knowledge and skills transfer and management, capacity-building, professional mentoring, teaching/training, research and evaluation in maternal and child health, family planning, youth and HIV/AIDS, and development and utilization of evidence base. He has presented at numerous seminars and conferences and also organized and led workshops and consultative events. He has authored or co-authored numerous articles and papers, book chapters and monographs.
B. Griffith Feeney :
Griffith Feeney was born in 1943. He received his Ph.D. in 1972 from the University of California, Berkeley. Currently he is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Program on Population in Honolulu, Hawaii. He has devised a number of techniques for making the best use of defective data













Table: Population size and Growth rate
Year Total population Pop change Growth Rate Doubling Time Analysis
1911 5,638,749 - - (Influenza )
1920 5,573,788 -64,961 -0.13 -
1930 5,532,574 41,214 -0.07 - Decline
1941 6,283,649 7,51,075 1.16 60
1952-54 8,256,625 19,72,976 2.27 31 High GR
1961 9,412,996 11,56,371 1.64 42
1971 11,555,983 21,42,987 2.05 34 Rapid fall in mortality only.
1981 15,022,839 34,66,856 2.62 26 Very H GR compare to 1991
1991 18,491,097 34,68,258 2.08 33
2001 23,151,423 2.25 32


Summary of the paper
The main objective of this paper is to examine the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepal. The fertility and mortality trends of Nepal reflect that it follows the general trend of demographic transition model. The mortality decline begins at early 1930s and there is decline in fertility rates during late 1960s and early 1990s.
Prior to 1961 only five population census was carried out in Nepal i.e. population census of 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941 and 1952-1954. Complete reports of the 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941, and 1952-1954 censuses were not published, only the data available is total population by sex. The table below shows the population growth rate data between 1911 and 2001.
According to above table the population of Nepal declined up to 1930 and then after population started to grow. However, the population of the country did not grow at a uniform rate. At the time of the latest census of 2001, Nepal’s population reached 23.1 million with annual average growth rate of 2.25 percent during the last decade 1991-2001. The various reasons for population decline in between 1911 to 1930 are Influenza, census conduction on abnormal period i.e. world war time. The rate of increase in the period 1941 to 1952/54 was improbably high in comparison with the earlier period. The population growth rate observed during the period 1971 to 1981 is found very high compared to 1981 to 1991 period. This may be attributed to the rapid fall in mortality without any corresponding fall in fertility

The above figure shows that the population has been increased between 1991 and 2001 from 46.7% to 48.4%in Terai, while it has declined from 45.5% to 44.3% in hill and it has also declined from 7.8% to 7.3% to mountain. This shows that the infrastructural facility, high fertile land and potential of economic activity has attract the people from other ecological zone to terrain which results increase in population in this area.
Likewise the population growth rate indicates that, it is also influenced by various factors such as the ecological zone, social factors like education, urban area and so on.

The above table shows that the infant mortality trend is higher in rural area as compared to urban area. IMR of urban area is declined to 50.1 from 61.1during 1996 and 2001. The table also indicates that the IMR is higher for illiterate people compared to educated people. IMR also varied according to development regions. The data of 2001 shows that IMR is higher in far western region and was found lowest in western development region.

Similarly the writer has presented the four different scenario of future population growth for Nepal which is summarized below;
I: continued slow decline
According to this scenario a continuation of the recent slow pace of fertility decline (0.45) children per women per decade over the past has results in total population of Nepal rising to over 100 million over the next century. The fertility decline will continue until replacement level, taken to be 2.1 children per women. The rate of fertility decline in Nepal is slow compared to rates of decline in Asia generally.
II: zero population growth from 2001
According to this model the fertility will fall to below one child per woman. In practical it is impossible to achieve zero population growth in short-term. To achieve zero population growth the fertility rates have to decline from 4.8 children per woman for1996-2000 to barely over 2 children per woman for 2001-2005, followed by a further decline to as low as 0.72child per woman for 2016-2020.
According to this model the future population of Nepal will reached between 40 and 60 million. The rapid decline in population results the tremendous fluctuations in the age distribution over the coming century.
III: smooth approach to zero growth
Unlike the too rapid decline of fertility in Scenario two, this model supports the idea of more rapid fertility decline. Base on this practice of fertility decline, the population of Nepal would reach to below 60 million. The rate of decline is faster than what Nepal has experienced in the past but comparatively low while comparing it with other Asian countries. The fertility decline base on his model will results No disruption of age distribution. It means those younger age groups are higher or greater than the older age group.


The above figure shows the trend of fertility decline and population growth in Nepal.

IV: More rapid fertility decline
This model implies the total fertility rates of 3.7 children per woman for 2001-2005, 2.8 children per woman for 2006-2010, and 2.2 children per woman for 2011-2015. This represents an average rate of decline of 1.8 children per woman per decade. With modest disruption in age distribution the Nepal population rises to 40 million. It can achieve only through reducing the family size and increasing the age of child bearing.






Subject Paper context
The demographic transition in Nepal shows that Nepal falls under stage two of demographic transition model where there birth rate is constant and mortality rate starts to decline. The establishment of health post and awareness program raised by government about importance of hygiene and proper diet has helped to reduce the mortality rate of Nepal.

Theoretical category
There is deep relation between the theory of population, natural resources and development. The high or low population growth has some link with the environmental degradation and the growth of economy, technology development.
Population dynamics, including growth rates, age structure, fertility and mortality, migration and more, influence every aspect of human, social and economic development.
In summary the paper deals with the fertility rate and the future population of Nepal, in four different scenarios. Hence it is directly associated with the population theory. The various kinds of demographic theory are discussed in this chapter.
A. Demographic transition model:
It is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The four different characteristics of demographic transition model are mentioned below:
1. Stage I
It is associated with pre Modern times, and is characterized by high birth and death rates (30-50 per thousand). Their approximate balance results in only very slow population and growth. Growth rates would have been less than 0.05%, resulting in long doubling times of the order of 1-5,000 yrs.
Death rates were very high at all times in this stage for a various reasons like lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure, infectious diseases such as influenza, scarlet fever, or plague, the lack of clean drinking water and efficient sewage disposal, and poor food hygiene; occasional food shortages and so on. Similarly reasons of high births are associated with high rate of infant mortality and lack of security of life.

2. Stage II
Stage two sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rates are constant or rises slightly. It represents the characteristics of early industrialized society. The decline in the death rate at this stage is due initially to two factors:
• First, improvements in food supply brought about by higher yields as agricultural practices were improved in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th.C.
• Second, there were significant improvements in public health that reduced mortality, particularly in childhood.
A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. The growth which is not due to an increase in fertility but to a decline in deaths results change in the age structure of the population.
3. Stage III
At this stage both Birth rate and death rate continues to fall which results in stabilization in population growth. This model represents characteristics of developed industrialized nations. The reasons for continuous decline in death rates at these stages are:
• Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society.
• Increasing female literacy
• Preference given to build the carrier of women.

4. Stage IV
At this stage both birth rate and death rate are low. It represents the characteristics of post industrial society.


5. Stage V
At these stage death rates is higher than the birth rates. The highly developed nation like Japan is facing this problem.

B. Population Growth Theory:
The rate of national Population growth is expressed as a percentage for each country, commonly between about 0.1% and 3% annually. There is two kind of population growth theory.
i. natural growth theory
Natural growth represents the births and deaths in a country's population and does not take into account migration.
ii. overall growth theory
The overall growth rate takes migration into account.
The growth rate of a country provides demographers and geographers with a good contemporary variable for current growth and for comparison between countries or regions. For most purposes, the overall growth rate is the more frequently utilized.

C. Population Doubling Time:
The growth rate can be used to determine a country or region or even the planet's "doubling time." It tells us how long it will take for a country's current population to double. This length of time is determined by dividing the growth rate into 70. The number 70 comes from the natural log of 2, which is .70.
The world's current (overall as well as natural) growth rate is about 1.3%, representing a doubling time of 54 years. We can expect the world's population of 6 billion to become 12 billion by 2054 if current growth continues. The world's growth rate peaked in the 1960s at 2% and a doubling time of 35 years
Most European countries have low growth rates. In the United Kingdom, the rate is 0.2%, in Germany its 0.3%, and in France, 0.4%. German and other European countries' natural growth rate is actually negative (on average, women in Germany give birth to 1.5 children, which is below the number to yield zero population growth, approximately 2.1 children). Germany's natural growth rate of -0.1 cannot be used to determine doubling time because the population is actually shrinking in size. It's immigration that brings Germany's overall growth rate up to 0.3%, with a doubling time of about 233 years).
Many developing Nations like Asian and African countries have high growth rates. Afghanistan has a current growth rate of 3.5%, representing a doubling time of 20 years. If population growth continued at the same rate for the following century, by 2200 Afghanistan's population would be 26.6 billion, which is more than four times the current world population. In Nepal with the growth rate of 2.1% it would take 25 years for doubling.
The population growth and doubling time of high developed and developing nation’s shows that it follow the characteristics of demographic transition model. The negative growth rate of Germany a developed nation s falls under the fifth stage where death rate is higher than the birth rate. The country like Nepal and Afghanistan falls under second stage where birth rate is very high and hence the population growth rate is too high.

D. Malthus theory:
The essay on the principle of population an important work of Malthus is a landmark in the history of population studies. The theory argue that the tendency of the population to grow faster in relation to its means of subsistence has led to human misery and placed several obstacles in the path of human progress.
In Malthusian theory he has stated that the population grows in a geometric ration and the other means of subsistence in arithmetic whose ultimate end would be poverty. His theory stated that there would be food shortage due to population growth. To minimize the risk of food insecurity people start deforestation and cultivate on those land.

E. Boserup theory
Boserup is also known as the critiques of Malthus theory. According to her theory population growth always do not have negative consequences. In Boserup’s theory agricultural methods depend on the size of the population. She argued that in times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the excess population will not die as mentioned in Malthus theory. Instead in those times of pressure, people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc. It means that for survival and to meet the increasing demand of food the people identify new technology and shift from traditional agricultural practices which were mainly based on hand tools to the modern farming system.
Hence this theory clearly stated that there exist the positive relation between population and development. To achieve the economic growth and to shift from traditional agriculture to industrial nations there must be population growth
F. Population pyramid:
A Population Pyramid is a graph that shows a country’s population by age and gender. The shape of the pyramid tells us about a country’s growth rate and dependency ratio. Population pyramids have the youngest age cohort at the bottom and females on one side and males on the other. Each age-gender group is represented as a % of the total population or in thousands of people.
Under the fertility decline ratio of scenario two there would be distortion in age distribution. Hence there would be longer bar at the top of pyramid as the result of decline in fertility rate and increase in life expectancy of people.
G. Canan Optimum population theory
According to Canan the propounded of this theory population must grow up to certain desired level after which further growth is harmful. The two important principles of this theory are:
1. when there is an increase in population than the ratio between the total population and the working population remains almost constant.
2. When at a point of time the population of a country increases the natural resources capital and technical knowhow do not change with the result that after sometime the law of diminishing returns begins to operate. This law provides that for maximum production all the sources of production should be combined in that proper ratio than it shall not be possible to have maximum production.
This theory supports the idea of both the Malthus and Boserup. According this theory the growth of population is necessary at the beginning phase of development activity. But when development reaches to its height the overpopulation create the problem as mentioned by the Malthus theory of population. It leads the problem of environmental crisis.

Analysis of the report
The distortion of age as results of rapid fertility decline will have negative impacts on the economic and social growth of the nation. So it is difficult to answer which scenario is more applicable or desirable in case on developing nations like Nepal.


3. 7

Here in this case we chose the scenario four as more appropriate as we can see in above figure that there is less age distortion caused by this model which can be tolerated by the society. Relatively smaller number of children and the relatively larger number of persons at working age during the first several decades might be salutary, and the overhang of older persons in the more distant future is manageable.
At the current slow rate of fertility rate decline in Nepal population will increase to hundred million over this century.




Multiple Theoretical Lenses Analysis
The main objective of our course is to enhance the knowledge and understanding of the important relationships between population, development and development.
We cannot study the theory of development, population and natural resources in isolation. They are strongly connected with each other. The change in one factor like increase in population has great impact in environment and strong relation with economic and social development.
The main aim of this section is to analyze and examine whether or not there is a relationship between the concepts developed by writer on “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” with different theory of population, natural resources and environment. This chapter is divided into three sections. Where the first part deal with the population theory, second with natural resources theory and a final section on development theory.
A. Relation with population theory:
The type of linkage between the concepts developed by author on the report with the population theory has almost covered in the theoretical chapter of this report. The few theory and concepts on population which has indirect relation with this chapter is discussed here.
I. The Population Bomb
The Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife in 1968. While analyzing the population bomb theory it matched with idea of Malthus. He too emphasized in the need of population control. In his book he shows the inverse relation between the population growth and food security. It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth. It alerted people to the importance of environmental issues and brought human numbers into the debate on the human future.
Ehrlich argues that as the existing population was not being fed adequately, and it was growing increasing rapidly it was unreasonable to expect sufficient improvements in food production to feed everyone. He further argued that the growing population placed increasing strains on all aspects of the natural world.
In answer to the question, "what needs to be done?" he wrote, "We must rapidly bring the world population under control, reducing the growth rate to zero or making it negative. Conscious regulation of human numbers must be achieved. Simultaneously we must, at least temporarily, greatly increase our food production
He made the future prediction where he stated that nothing can prevent famines in which hundreds of millions of people will die during the 1970s, and that there would be a substantial increase in the world death rate. Although many lives could be saved through dramatic action, it was already too late to prevent a substantial increase in the global death rate. However, in reality the global death rate has continued to decline substantially since then, from 13/1000 in 1965–74 to 10/1000 from 1985–1990. Meanwhile the population of the world has more than doubled, while calories consumed/people have increased 24%.
The failure of his theory forced us to look at the theory of Boserup once again. Why people don’t die due to starvation though the population is increasing. Is it really supporting the idea of Boserup, where she argued that for the survival people change the technology and adopts the modern technology which helps to increase the agricultural products and transfer the society from traditional to modern? The answer is yes.
II. Political ecology:
In critiques of population bomb and Malthus theory the Nobel Prize, Amartya Sen winner put forward the new idea and relationship between population and food security. In his view the food security is not the problem caused by population growth. The root cause of famine has been political instability. He argued that nations with democracy and a free press have virtually never suffered from extended famines. However, most epidemiologists, public health physicians and demographers identify corruption as the chief cause of malnutrition, not "overpopulation".
III. Neo-Malthusianism theory
It also supports the idea of Malthus theory. In Malthus theory there has been shown the direct relationship between the environmental degradation and increasing population. But in Neo-Malthusianism theory the direct relationship between increase in population and income has shown. As a result people have cash in hand they again start to demand the high class luxurious goods which ultimately force in environmental degradation. Example As we all know the income of people of Kathmandu is higher to compare that of rural area. The high income of this urban group results in demand for more housing home, vehicle to travel, land to dispose daily waste. Hence we can say there is positive relationship between the income and the land degradation in case of Nepal.

B. Relation with Natural resources theory:
This section deals with the various concepts and theory such as IPAT, Himalayan degradation theory, agricultural biodiversity, carbon dioxide rise and climate change (paper by Surendra P. Singh) and sustainable development.
I. IPAT
IPAT is an accounting identity stating that environmental impact (I) is the product of three terms: 1) population (P); 2) affluence (A); and 3) technology (T). It is stated I = P x A x T or I=PAT. Generally credited to ecologist Paul Ehrlich, the IPAT formulation arose from a dispute in the early 1970s among the most prominent environmental thinkers of the day about the sources of environmental impact.
We know that there will be rise in future population between 40 million to 100 million during next century under four different scenarios. The concept of IPAT portrays the environmental impact caused by the increasing population, affluence and technology.
As we have already known that technology will be enhanced with the growth in population to meet there increasing demands. This positive relation between technology and population growth have negative impacts on the environment. The innovation of new technology further helps to make good earnings. The increasing wealth increases the demand of luxurious good such as more vehicles, concrete buildings, furniture and so on which ultimately leads to degradation of environment.
II. Himalayan degradation theory:
Similarly the “Theory of Himalayan degradation” a thesis reports by Guthman. He supports the theory of Malthus. He has also mentioned that there is negative relationship between environment and population. Or we can also state it as, with rise population the problem associated with environment will also increased. As mentioned in the report the main cause of land degradation is increasing population. He also shows the several other impacts caused by population growth on environment such as soil erosion, landslides, hydrological disruptions, deforestation, climate change, air pollution, water pollution and so on.
So like on the report on “One and Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”, the Himalayan degradation theory also address the needs of population control through various mechanism and the importance of environmental and natural resource conservation from future perspective.
III. Carbon Dioxide Rise and Climate Change
The paper by Surendra P. Singh on Carbon Dioxide and Climate change, talks about the pressure and negative impact as a result of population. Since it talks about the need to conserve the natural resources it has indirect relation with the demographic transition theory.
Due to climate change there is negative impacts on various sector like tourism, agriculture, melting of ice, disturbance in marine ecosystem and so on. To save the community and nations from the problem of food insecurity the paper state that the people adopts the new kind of agricultural practices and crop the new variety which will adopt and yield more with the changing climate.
IV. Sustainable development
Through realizing the cause of growing population on environment at present many development workers has emphasized the concept of sustainable development. The general definition of sustainable development is that natural resources should be used and consume in such a way that it meets the present needs without compromising the needs of future generations.
The sustainable development debate is based on the assumption that societies need to manage three types of capital i.e. economic, social, and natural. As it talks about the control of unmanageable and haphazard’s activity in the name of development. We can report not only present population but future will too depends on environment or natural resources. We must control our activity that have direct negative impacts on environment and follow the practice which fulfill the need of present population along with the population control.

Hence sustainable development concepts put human population at the core of development agenda to achieve the human wellbeing while preserving the quality of environment. This types of development practices helps to understand how the human population and society interact with the natural environment. Despite the lots of criticism this concept of sustainable development was identified as the means to reduce the negative impacts of development activity on environment and as a means to achieve environmental balance in Nepal.

V. Agricultural Biodiversity
Agriculture, the art, science and business of raising livestock and cultivating soil to produce crops, is totally dependent on genes, species, and ecosystems and the variability inherent in them. This variability, known as biological diversity provides agriculture with the capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

The agricultural biodiversity theory on natural resources is also linked with population theory. This theory follows the similar idea of Malthus about population growth and food insecurity. In detail it talks about how to increase the agricultural products to meet the need of growing population.
Human population is projected to grow from a little over 6 billion today to over 8 billion by 2030, an increase of about a third, with another two to four billion to come in the subsequent 50 years. But food demand may grow even faster, as a result of growing urbanization, rising incomes, and greater efforts to reduce hunger among the over 800 million people currently under-nourished (UN Millennium Project, 2005). Global consumption of livestock products is predicted to more than double from about 300 million metric tons in 1993 to over 650 million tons in 2020
Hence to meet this demand there should be change in agricultural practices and adopt the new technology and inputs like fertilizer, irrigation facility, improved seed and so on. Agricultural biodiversity is not only the result of human activity but human life is dependent on it not just for the immediate provision of food and other good.

C. Relation with development theory:
There are various theories on development concepts like Rostow five stages of development, modernization theory, women in development, gender and development.
I. Rostow five stages of development:
This theory is about the five different stages of development and talks about how the country transform from the traditional to high mass consumption society. The five stages present in this theory area:
• Stage 1 Traditional Society - The economy is dominated by subsistence activity.
• Stage 2 Transitional Stage (Preconditions for Takeoff)
• Stage 3 Take Off
• Stage 4 Drive to Maturity

The growth in economy with change in technology and urbanization are the major factors of economic growth. The highly developed nations falls under stage five and the developing nations like Nepal belongs to the second stage of development theory.
Hence this theory doesn’t have any linkages with demographic transition and population growth and control.
II. Modernization theory:
The basic idea of modernization theory is the transformation of society from traditional to modern through the adaptation of new technology. Modernization theorists often saw traditional society as obstacles to economic growth.
IN modernization theorist Ehrlich sees rapid population growth in the LDCs as an obstacle to development. He claims that much of the poverty found in the LDCs is caused by a ‘population explosion’ which has put too much strain on the limited resources (i.e. food and energy) of these societies and resulted in famine and malnutrition and consequent high rates of infant mortality. High population allegedly puts a great strain on the infrastructure of the LDCs and services such as education and health are stretched to the limit. Economic growth is also difficult to achieve because any economic surplus in the form of capital must be spent on feeding the population and developing an infrastructure to cope with it. If population was not increasing, such economic surplus could be invested in industrial development. There is also concern that high population puts a strain on the environment in terms of pollution and the over-use of land, whilst the need for more land may lead to deforestation.
IV. Dependency theory:
Development theory explains the relationship between the developed and developing nation. Dependency theorists argue that poor societies were better off in the past than they are today. They believe the economic positions of the rich and poor societies are interdependent and that the prosperity of high-income countries has come largely at the expense of low-income countries.
Hence this theory talks just about the dominant relationship between the developed and developing nations and the exploitation of natural resources for the economic development. Hence it has no linkages with the population theory.
V. Women in development:
The concept was emerged during early 1970s after the publication of Ester Boserup’s book called “Women role in Economic Development”. The main concern of this theory is integrating women in economic development through legal and administrative support. For this the priority is given to equal participation of women in education and employment opportunities. When women are educated they are worried about their carrier and are not only responsible to perform house hold chores. As the result of women education the women are also involved in economic activity and they don’t marry and give birth at early age. Hence there is relationship between theory of population and women in development.
Judgment
Here in this chapter the effort has made to examine whether there is positive or negative consequences created due to increasing population and what types of effort or policy had been prepared by government to address this issue. The main objective of this chapter is to choose one theory that has strong relation with the idea and concept of “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”
In my view point the Malthus theory of population growth and IPAT is more relevant to this paper. Both talk about the negative impacts caused by increasing population. This paper also analyzes the population growth as the vital problem in the county Like Nepal. And suggest minimizing the total fertility rate and mortality rate to have less population growth rate.



Out of Box
Case of Nepal
The population of Nepal according to last three censuses 1981, 1991 1nd 2001 is 15022, 839; 18491, 097; 23077,791 respectively. The population growth rate is 2.5% and it will take 25 years for the doubling of population. Similarly the birth, death and fertility rate of Nepal is 33 - 37 per 1000, 10 - 12 per 1000 and 4-6 children per thousand correspondingly. The table below shows the population data of Nepal.
population density: 156 per sq.km = 405 per sq. mi
population growth: 2,5% ; - doubling time: 25 years
birth rate: 33 - 37 per 1000
death rate: 10 - 12 per 1000
fertility rate: 4 - 6 children per female
maternal mortality: 830 per 100,000
infant mortality (1-4 years): 64 - 90 per 1000
life expectancy: 59 years (male: 59; female: 58)
age breakdown: 0-14 years: 42% ; - 15-59 years: 53% ; - 60+ years: 5%
urbanization: 14% ; - urbanization growth: 5%
percentage of urban population in the greatest city: 27%















The population growth data of Nepal during last decade indicates fertility rate is on decline. Fall in fertility plays a crucial role in reducing the growth rate of population. The different factors like extension of education for women, positive changes in social attitude towards female, slight increase in the age of marriage for female, growing knowledge of family planning methods and willingness for its services, extension of economic activities though in a limited way and initiation of modern communication technology in Nepalese society have been helpful in bringing about decline in fertility rate. The declining trend of fertility rate, at present Nepal, is the result of partial success of population program carried out during the past plans.
In Nepal during the 1950s, life expectancy was quite low (about 27 years) due to a high infant mortality rate. However, a continuous decrease in the infant mortality rate has led to an increase in the stated life expectancy. Consequently, during the second half of 20th century, life expectancy in Nepal has increased from 27 to 60 years.
Similarly in case of Nepal the growth of urban population is expected to be high due to process of rapid urbanization coupled with extension of urban sectors. It indicates that demographic data is not only determined by the birth and death rate, it was due to rapid growth in the number of outside immigrants.
Likewise, there are two mechanisms to population ageing - 1) aging at the base and 2) aging at the apex. Ageing at the base results from a decrease in fertility; and then subsequently, by reducing mortality among the elderly. The main cause of population ageing in Nepal is a decline in fertility rather than a decrease in mortality. Control over unplanned pregnancies and early mortality has led to a greater chance that those new lives will live longer and thrive.
The government has also made the policy to control the population growth in Nepal. The main objective of eighth five year plan was is to minimize or reduce the high growth rate of population and to maintain the socio economic development and environment. The ministry of population and environment was established during the fourth year of the eighth plan keeping in the view the need of the nation, commitment of the nation in this sector, the objective of taking ahead the population program in an integrated manner as stipulated in the international conference.

As shown in scenario four the need of fertility decline to 2.2 children per women, it is not easy task for the government. Though there has been a substantial progress in reducing total fertility rate, yet no success has been achieved in materializing the concepts of two children and desire for the same into reality. In 1996, the average number of children desired by couples was about 3.3. The task of transforming the desire of two children into reality is still a challenging job.


Synthesis
This chapter deals with the criticism of demographic transition model and will also deal with the relation between the theoretical knowledge on demographic transition of Nepal with the educational field visit to Jhikhu Khola.
Demographic transition model is accused of studying the relationship between population change and birth and death rates. It fails to show the linkages between the migration and population which is also one of the causes of population change. This model is not applicable for high levels of development because the demographic models make the assumption that with the development and economic growth of nations there will always be decline in fertility level. But it is not true in all cases. It has been shown that after a HDI of 0.9 the fertility increases again.
The other criticism of DTM includes its assumption of no role of social factors like education and health facilities in the decline of fertility and mortality level. It assumes population changes are brought about by industrial changes and increased wealth. This is not true as social changes are equally important in determining birth rates, for example, the education of women. Also, DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. The opposite is true. When infant mortality increases, people are more likely to have more children to replace themselves.
To minimize the error on demographic data of Nepal the mechanism must be developed which focused and count the change in population due to all important factors like migration, death, birth and other social factors like education.
Here in second part of synthesis I have tried to show the linkages of the report with the situation of Jhikhu Khola. (Field visit)
The field visits to Jhikhu Khola helps to demonstrate the knowledge on linkages between population, environment and development. After taking the interview with the government staff of ward office we came to know the population of Jhikhu Khola has been increased by 5-10%. The cause was not decline in mortality rate but it was mainly due to migration of people from other wards or villages. The increase in the population of this area has negative impacts on the environment of this area. The water shade of Jhikhu Khola has trickled down. The people are facing the problem of drought and difficulties in cultivation of agricultural products. The most of the land which were used to be covered by forest has been now converted into human settlement. The other problem associated with the increasing population is air and water pollution.
Though there are negative impacts on environment of Jhikhu Khola, people are receiving benefits like development of infrastructure such as road, establishment of hospital and schools near villages through the increasing population. The access to road and hospital has helped to decline the mortality rate of this area. Easy access to market due too road is one of the most important reasons of people shifting from traditional agricultural practices to cash crop. Similarly the formal and informal women education has helped to reduce the fertility rate of this area.

CONCLUSION
Demographic transition is the central theoretical concept in the population field. As empirical fact, the transition’s nearing completion—in low mortality and fertility—is the dominant feature of global population dynamics. While the determinants of demographic transition have been explored in depth over more than half a century, far less attention has been given to the consequences of transition, aside from its immediate effect on population aging

Nepal's population of 23.1 million in 2001 census was around 4.6 million greater than in 1991 census and over 17.5 million more than the 1911 population census of 5.6 million. The main component of Nepal's population growth has been natural increase. The population size, growth and density vary according to geographical and administrative divisions. For many purposes information on the size and characteristics of the total population of a nation is not sufficient. Population data are often needed for geographic divisions of a country and urban and rural 84 areas. It is true that fertility, mortality and also boundaries changes are the contributing factors in the population size, growth and distribution by geographical and administrative divisions, variations in the net migration is also responsible for spatial changes in the population of the country. In Nepal, the geographic distribution of the population is not even but is dense in some places and sparse in others. There are urban centers where thousands of people live within a few square kilometers, and there are also vast stretches of mountains where the population averages only one or two persons per square kilometer
The Nepal is also suffering from the environmental related problems like pollution, drought, climate change, deforestation, degradation of soil fertility, decrease in agriculture land etc.
Similarly the population theory cannot be analyzed in isolation. There is a deep relationship between population, environment and development. Mainly the environmental degradation is the results of rapid development without concerning its negative impact on environment like water and air pollution. To meet the demand of growing population the natural resources are more exploited. The developed or the rich people have more control on resources as compare to developed or rich people.

References
Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield. (1987). Land Degradation and Society. Methuen & Co., London. GTZ: Open Access or Common Property Rules. Community Based Natural Resources Management in
Becker, Gary S. “An Economic Analysis of Fertility” in Richard Easterling (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Princeton University Press, 1960.
Bhasin, K. (1996), Gender workshop with men in South Asia: Experiences and reflections. Convergence, 1996 Vol.29, Issue 1, Pg 46.
Bhurtel, Jugal and Ali, Saleem H. 2009. The Green Roots of Red Rebellion: Environmental Degradation
as the Ultimate cause of social Vulnerability and Militancy in Nepal. Kathmandu
CBS. (2004), Statistical Year Book of Nepal, Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics. Retrieved June 1, 2011, from http://www.cbs.gov.np
Economic Review. 90.4 (2000), 806-828. Gímenez, Martha E. The Population Issue: Marx vs. Malthus. Den Ny Verden. 8.3 (1973)
Guthman, Julie. (1995). Environmental Crisis and Development Discourse In the Nepal Himalayan. University of California, Berkeley
Karki, B.S. A community-managed forest in Managed, Nepal
Lee, Ronald D. 1994. “The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle.” In Demography of Aging, ed. Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond”. American.
Shiva, Vandana. (1997). Biodiversity: A third world Perspective. Penang, Malaysia: Third World Network
United Nations. 2000. Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision. New York: United Nations, Population Division.

UNIT 4 DEVELOPMENT STUDENT SEMINAR OUTPUTS

NOTE: IF YOUR TEAM OUTPUT IS NOT HERE THAT MEANS I DO NOT HAVE IT; YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR GIVING ME IF YOU WANT A GRADE ON THE TOPIC.

UNIT 4 DEVELOPMENT STUDENT SEMINAR OUTPUTS

1.

Summary
On
Economic theory of Development


Date: 22nd March, 011

Submitted by: Team I
Murvica Prasia
Rijana Malla
Krishna Hari GC


Submitted to: Dr. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar

Economic growth is an increase in the total output of goods and services. This term can refer to the percentage increase in an economy’s total output, usually measured by real Gross Domestic Production (GDP), or also can be defined as percentage increase in per capita real GDP. Economic growth can be caused by long run increase in aggregate supply (rise in an economy’s potential output) and also by short run changes in aggregate demand or aggregate supply. Economic growth occurs when there is an outward shift in the production possibilities curve. This shift occurs when the economy gives higher output. The factors behind this outward shift of the production possibilities frontier are technological changes and better efficiency of the labor force and better utilization of the resources. Labor and resources are limited. There is always limitation while increasing the volume of the economy. If we take an example of a country which has two option of producing consumer and capital goods than while it focus on producing consumer food than have to cut to produce capital goods. A high growth involves focusing production on capital goods at the expense of consumer goods in the short run. But in long run producing the capital goods leads to the high production of consumer goods too. The consumerism plays important role in economic growth. Higher consumption leads to higher investment and which leads to higher production. Consumption of one is investment for another. We need to see the economic growth as exponential growth. In economy there is a rule of 72. This rule says that the doubling time of any resources is same with the 72 quotient by the growth rate of those particular resources. For example if the exponential growth rate of the laser is 4% than the doubling time of the laser production will be 18 years. Due to these economic characteristic even small differences in percentage rates of growth make significant differences over time.
The world has been divided into three types from economic perspectives: they are
 High income countries- Also called as industrially advanced countries, nation with per capita incomes substantial enough to provide their citizens with widespread prosperity or modern mixed economies based on capital-intensive production and the use of skilled labor.
 Middle income countries- Also called as newly industrializing countries, countries in which sizeable minority of the population no longer lives in acute poverty and
 Low income countries- Also called as less-developed countries, this includes 50 poorest countries in the world, as defined by per capita income. These countries tend to have low level of capital resources and use of labor intensive processes.
Sources of economic growth
The production possibilities model shows that the main cause of growth in an economy’s total real output are the stock of economic resources and how productively these resources are used. In case of Canada, One of the most important causes of growth is total output in accounting for an estimated 35% of growth in Real GDP between 1981 and 1989 is because of increase in quantity of labor, higher participation rate of women and population growth.
Growth depends on quantity of capital technological progress, the quality of labor, efficiency in production, the quantity of natural resources and social and political factors.
 Quantity of capital- it has said that by saving and higher proportion of their disposable incomes, Canadians can increase investment and accelerate the accumulation of capital resources. As capital inputs have risen more quickly than labor inputs in Canadian economy, it helps to increase amount of capital.
 Technological progress- it encompasses scientific discoveries and their application, advances in production method, and development of new type of products. It increases labor productivity by raising quality of capital resources with which labor is employed.
 Quality of labor- the productivity of labor is not only related to investment in capital goods but also to investment in human capital through education and training which further helps in improving their standard of living.
 Efficiency in production- economic growth is influenced by changes in the efficiency of production through economies of scale and reallocation or resources among different sectors.
 Quantity of natural resources- Canada’s rich supplies of natural resources have doubtless contributed to its past economic growth.
 Social and political factors-there is variety of social and political factors that can affect economic growth. Growth will be enhanced in a society that promotes competition, innovation and entrepreneurship and by social institution geared towards enterprise and profit making. Similarly, government regulation and taxes has also sometimes as inhibit economic growth.

There is different argument related to economic growth which has both positive and negative aspects.
Argument in the support of Economic growth
 Living standards- the main benefit of economic growth is itself positive effect on living standard. With rising incomes and output, more wants can be satisfied. Because of tremendous material benefit that economic growth has provides Canadian today has more pleasant life.
 Social improvement- economic growth can be channeled not only in private sector but also into higher government spending, allowing for greater expenditures in such area health, education, promotion of income equity.
 Psychological benefit- a growing economy helps to create a mood of optimism and a sense of expanding opportunities.
Argument against economic growth
 Opportunity cost of growth- it devote more of its scarce resources to investment in capital goods rather that to current consumption.
 Environmental costs- higher levels of economic activity lead to greater exploitation of the world’s limited supply of natural resources, also causing higher level of pollution and waste.
 Social cost- the social cost of growth is related to insecurity and risks that come with technological progress.

Strategies for development
The little dragons show that it is possible to break the vicious circle of poverty. The breaking the cycle involves 3 domestic strategies.

 Ensuring a stable political and economic system- frequent changes in the country’s laws discourage business activity as do quick fix scheme by government that involve public spending financial through persistent budget deficit or inflationary monetary policy. Economic development is enhanced if it is accompanied by political freedom and democracy.
 Investing in resources- for all low income countries government investment in human capital through education, health and social programs is an important component of development.
 Population control- government can use several approaches to limit population growth like, introducing voluntary birth control programs, as in China’s One child policy, providing basic n\services to poor involving health, nutrition and developing new market, enhance employment opportunity.

Similarly higher income countries can assist with two international strategies.
 Trade liberalization
 Foreign Aid
Conclusion
Historically, economic prospective has been much focused and Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) are regarded as the indicator of the development. But these days such view is getting criticized. However everyone agrees that people need to produce more and sufficient consumption will keep them happy. The growing number of the population is giving pressure to produce more and comparatively cheaper so that poor can afford it.
Technological advancement and efficient use of the resources will help to give more output. In course of production there are always some limitations. While enhancing the economic development it has two choices either focus in producing the consumer good or capital goods. In short run, the choice of the producing the consumer good or capital goods may not give different output but in long run capital good production will again leads to the higher consumer good production.
Consumption is the key thing to increase the volume of the economy. Today consumption is the future investment. Higher consumption leads to the higher production and that eventually leads tot the higher production.
Today’s need of the economy is to have Pareto optimality. Pareto optimality is win win situation where many get and less loose. Economic theories are still relevant and they are for improvement of the people life. The need of the present economy is not just to increase the size of the economy but the pie is prime concern.

2.

Summary: Human Development Index & Nepal’s progress through time

504 Population and Development
Kathmandu University/School of Arts
Team VI: Bobby Ghimire, Jyotsna Kakshapati, Delon Bharati


It was the famous economist from Pakistan Mahbub ul Haq (Feb 22, 1931 – July 16, 1998) and another renowned economist from India Amartya Sen (Nov 3, 1933 - ) who came up with a notion of human development theory and derived the Human Development Indicator. Having the sole purpose of, ‘Shifting the focus of development economics from national income accounting to people centered policies’, [Haq Mahbub ul, Reflections on Human Development], the notion of Human Development Theory came into existence. The only method to judge the performance of a country until 1990 was the performance of the economy of the country or the rise and fall of the national income. How well the country and its people were doing was approximated by how well its economy was performing. Human Development Index commonly known as HDI was basically Mahbub ul Haq’s brainchild which was collaborated later by Amartya Sen with his theories of increasing capabilities and freedoms. Ranking countries by the level of human development and segregating them into developed, developing and underdeveloped countries is what the Human Development Index (HDI) does.

The three dimensions of Human Development Index (HDI) are life expectancy at birth, literacy rate and standard of living where a uniformly weighed sum with one third of life expectancy index, education index, adult literacy index, gross enrollment index and GDP is contributed for the index number. The number is a unit free index between 0 and 1. A HDI below 0.5 is considered to represent ‘low development’ where most of the nations falling under it are from Africa and a HDI of 0.8 or above is considered to represent ‘high development’ where most of the Scandinavian countries fall under it. A majority of world’s development agencies have been highly influenced and have slowly starting to shift from their basic capital and rights based approached to human development theory pioneered by Haq and Sen. The HDI is highly accredited by the United Nation Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Reports (HDRs) which covers the report of almost all the UN member states and ranks it on the basis of it.

Now talking about HDI in terms of Nepal, since 1980 Nepal has made the greatest strides in improving human development is Nepal, according to the UN’s annual Human Development Index (HDI). Report states that Nepal is the fastest movers in the Human Development Index (HDI) since 1970 and is 3rd among the ‘Top Ten Movers' list in terms of progress in health and education. Between 1970 and 2010, Nepal’s HDI value increased from 0.210 to 0.428, an average increase of 104 percent, while Nepal’s Gross National income per capita increased by 94 percent during the same period.

The report says Nepal’s impressive progress in health and education can be traced to major public policy efforts such as the free primary education for all children, legislation as far as back 1971 and the extension of primary health care through community participation, local mobilization of resources and decentralization. It also points out gap between Nepal’s life expectancy and the global average has narrowed down by 87 percent over the past 40 years.

The continuing multifaceted inequality remains a major reason for Nepal’s low HDI position. According to the Human Development Report 2010, large disparities remain between boys and girls in school attendance as well as in the quality of education between urban and rural areas and across ethnic groups. Major health challenges remain, related to communicable diseases and malnutrition. Large disparities separate regions and communicable diseases and malnutrition. Large disparities separate regions and groups, with a quasi-feudal oligarchic system and caste based discriminations continuing to marginalize some. Nepal needs to learn from its own success in health and education and apply the same determination to tackle the areas in which it is still lagging behind.



Calculating HDI for Nepal

We know,



Life Expectancy Index = 67.5 -25
85-25
= 42.5
60
= 0.708


Adult Literacy Index = 57.9 -0 = 57.9 = 0.579
100-0 100

Gross Enrollment Index = 42.2 – 0
100 – 0
= 42.2
100
= 0.422

Income Index = log (1,201) – log (100)
log (40,000) – log (100)
= 3.09 – 2
4.60 – 2
= 1.09 = 0.419
2.60

Therefore,

HDI = 0.708 + 0.157 + 0.419
3
= 0.428


Which ranks Nepal at 138th out of 169 countries in HDI 2010


3.

POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY ON NEPAL’S ACHIEVEMENT
IN THE MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL




SUBMITTED TO
PROF. AMULYA RATNA TULADHAR
KATHMANU UNIVERSITY

TEAM 3:
PRAKASH BUDHA MAGAR
NEESHA SHAKYA
MANISHA BHATTRAI



SUBMITTED DATE:
22ND MARCH 2011
Background
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight goals to be achieved by 2015 that respond to the world's main development challenges. The MDGs are drawn from the actions and targets contained in the Millennium Declaration that was adopted by 189 nations-and signed by 147 heads of state and governments during the UN Millennium Summit in September 2000. The eight MDGs break down into 18 quantifiable targets that are measured by 48 indicators.
Aim of MDG
The aim of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to encourage development by improving social and economic conditions in the world's poorest countries. They derive from earlier international development targets, and were officially established following the Millennium Summit in 2000, where all world leaders present adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, from which the eight goals were derived by a group headed by Jeffrey Sachs.
Eight goals in points
• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
• Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
• Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
• Goal 5: Improve maternal health
• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
• Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

MDGs originated from the Millennium Declaration produced by the United Nations. The Declaration asserts that every individual has the right to dignity, freedom, equality, a basic standard of living that includes freedom from hunger and violence, and encourages tolerance and solidarity. The MDGs were made to operationalize these ideas by setting targets and indicators for poverty reduction in order to achieve the rights set forth in the Declaration on a set fifteen-year timeline.
Discussion
Nepal is one of the 189 countries committed to the MDGs, a pledge renewed in its Three-Year Plan 2010-2013. The data from MDG Progress Report for Nepal 2010, prepared in partnership between the Government of Nepal and the UN Country Team, indicates that potentially Nepal will be able to achieve most of its MDG target by 2015, except for the full employment and climate change.
The 2010 report suggests that despite the decade-long conflict and political instability, Nepal's progress has been remarkable in a number of areas, for example, people living below the national poverty line has gone down to 25%, net enrollment rate has increased to 93.7%, gender parity has achieved in enrolment for primary education, under five mortality reduced to 50 per 1000 live births and maternal mortality has reduced to 229 per 100,000 live births which is almost reduction by half in 10 years time. Moreover, Nepal has succeeded to halt the spread of HIV/AIDS.
While the progress has not been sufficient to meet the targets on hunger, achieving universal primary education, eliminating gender disparity in secondary education and tertiary level of education, achieving universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it and with additional efforts Nepal is likely to achieve 2015 targets. However, the progress has not been fairly distributed from the perspective of social, economic and geographical dimension. Income inequality is continuously increasing.
Conclusion
The 2010 Report recommends to address the issue of disparity and inequality, a greater focus on reviving agriculture with investments in rural infrastructure addressing the issue of food security, create a better environment for private-sector investment, reduce trade imbalances with major trading partners, and better utilization of foreign aid.
UNDP and the other UN agencies in Nepal are actively supporting the Government in fulfilling its commitment to the MDGs. Large-scale joint programming on effective service delivery at the local level is being developed. In addition, the UN is supporting the capacity of the Government in mainstreaming the MDGs in its planning and monitoring since 2002 with the introduction of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. Together with the Regional Offices of UNDP, UNICEF, and UNFPA, the agencies helped to conduct training on MDGs needs assessment and costing to the relevant government staff who are involved in preparing Three Year Plan. The MDG needs assessment exercise that took place under the National Planning Commission and with the involvement of all development ministries together with preparation of the MDG progress report 2010 and training on MDG consistent macro economic framework has contributed to integrate MDGs into the Government's Three-Year Interim Plan 2008-2010. UNDP is also supporting the NPC to operationalize poverty monitoring and analysis system (PMAS) and district poverty monitoring and analysis system (DPMAS).
The 2010 MDGs progress report provided a comprehensive picture towards achieving the goals and served as the baseline for this National Plan. Also, the MDGs needs assessment exercise that took place under the leadership of the National Planning Commission with the involvement of all the Ministries helped to identify concrete strategies and resource garps to the MDGs by the year 2015.
As a result, the Government Approach Paper for the next 3 years has a dedicated chapter on MDGs. The Nepal Government has included MDGs as one of the criteria for prioritization of the development projects in Nepal. Nepal received a Millennium Development Goal (MDG) award for its outstanding national leadership, commitment and progress toward achievement of improved maternity health goal under the MDG-5.
Under MDG Goal – 5 entitled “Improve Maternal Health”, Nepal reduced the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 415 deaths in 2000 to 229 deaths in 2010 per 100,000 live births. As the targeted in MDG Goal-5 ‘reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by three quarters’ by 2015, the MDG report of Nepal shows that it will likely meet the target.
Reference:
1) Meeting the Millennium Development in Nepal – UNDP in Nepal.
Retrieved from www.undp.org.np/mdg/
2) Asian Development Bank, Nepal’s Progress towards Millennium Development Goals
3) Nepal Millennium Development Goals, Progress Report 2005.


4.

Development Indexes: Global/ Nepal
Presented by team 2:
Babu Ram Devkota
Prem K.C
Salpa Shrestha

World bank’s Country Classification

The Bank's analytical income categories (low, middle, high income) are based on the Bank's operational lending categories (civil works preferences, IDA eligibility, etc.). These operational guidelines were established based on the view that since poorer countries deserve better conditions from the Bank, comparative estimates of economic capacity needed to be established. GNI, a broad measure, was considered to be the best single indicator of economic capacity and progress; at the same time it was recognized that GNI does not, by itself, constitute or measure welfare or success in development. GNI per capita is therefore the Bank's main criterion of classifying countries.
Classifications:-

Geographic region: Classifications and data reported for geographic regions are for low-income and middle-income economies only. Low-income and middle-income economies are sometimes referred to as developing economies. The use of the term is convenient; it is not intended to imply that all economies in the group are experiencing similar development or that other economies have reached a preferred or final stage of development. Classification by income does not necessarily reflect development status.

Income group: Economies are divided according to 2008 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $975 or less; lower middle income, $976 - $3,855; upper middle income, $3,856 - $11,905; and high income, $11,906 or more.

Lending category: IDA countries are those that had a per capita income in 2008 of less than $1,135 and lack the financial ability to borrow from IBRD. IDA loans are deeply concessional—interest-free loans and grants for programs aimed at boosting economic growth and improving living conditions. IBRD loans are non concessional. Blend countries are eligible for IDA loans because of their low per capita incomes but are also eligible for IBRD loans because they are financially creditworthy.

The economies whose per capita GNI falls below the Bank's operational cutoff for "Civil Works Preference" are classified as low-income economies; economies whose per capita GNI is higher than the Bank's operational threshold for "Civil Works Preference" and lower than the threshold for 17-year IBRD loans are classified as lower-middle income economies; and those economies whose per capita GNI is higher than the Bank's operational threshold for 17-year IBRD loans and lower than the threshold for high-income economies are classified as upper-middle income economies.







Nepal’s classification:

Economy Code Region Income group Lending category Other

Nepal NPL south- Asia LOW- INCOME IDA

District of Nepal indicators of development:
In 1997, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) carried out an assessment of the development status of Nepal’s districts in collaboration with SNV-Nepal to aid the selection of priority districts for development assistance. The results were published as ‘Districts of Nepal – Indicators of Development’.
The indicators were divided into three main groups: (i) poverty and deprivation, (ii) socioeconomic and infrastructural development, and (iii) women’s empowerment.
The present study used 29 indicators divided into three main groups to develop composite indices of development. The 29 indicators employed in this study capture various dimensions of socioeconomic conditions and the level of development, including major constraints to development in each district, and portray the current scenarios for poverty and deprivation; socioeconomic and infrastructural development; and women’s empowerment.
Poverty and Deprivation
8 indicators were selected to measure aspects of poverty and deprivation: three to measure child deprivation, two to measure gender discrimination, one to measure the concentration of disadvantaged groups, one to measure marginal farm households, and one to measure food production.
Socioeconomic and Infrastructural Development
Seventeen indicators were used to show aspects of socioeconomic and infrastructural development: nine were social and health related, and eight were for infrastructure.
Women’s Empowerment
Four indicators were used to capture aspects of women’s empowerment in terms of their participation in economic activity and education.
Major findings
 25 least developed districts identified. Six of the 20 Terai districts (30%), 9 of the 40 hill districts (23%), and 10 of the 15 mountain districts (62%) were among the ‘least developed’.
 The districts common to all four combinations or configurations:poverty and deprivation; socio-economic and infrastructural development; and women’s empowerment) were identified. Eight districts – Achham, Bajura, Dadeldhura, Darchula, Jajarkot, Jumla, Rolpa, and Rukum – were among the least developed in all configurations. Most of these are mountain and hill districts in the Mid-Western and Far Western Development Regions.
Correlation
 Literacy
◦ Issues of child deprivation, gender discrimination, and women’s empowerment are more serious in those districts where the overall literacy rate is lower than in those districts where the overall literacy rate is higher.
◦ Specifically, there are relatively high correlations between the overall literacy rate and the child illiteracy rate, child economic activity rate, proportion of child marriage, gender imbalance ratio among the literate adult population, gender imbalance ratio among the non-agricultural adult labour force, percentage share of females in the literate population, percentage share of females in non-agricultural occupations, percentage share of females in primary level teaching, and percentage share of girls enrolled at primary level.
◦ Higher literacy seems to be associated with higher contraceptive prevalence.
 Roads
◦ Play an important role in the development of infrastructure.
◦ Correlation analysis showed that the density of both banks and cooperatives, and per capita public expenditure are higher in those districts where the road density is higher.

5.

Development Trap: Vicious Cycle of Poverty
Team IV
Binu Thapa, Prerana Shakya and Sambida Regmi

The cycle of poverty has been defined as a phenomenon where poor families become trapped in poverty for at least three generations. These families have either limited or no resources. It is also known as a inhuman cycle of not being able to come out of poverty. The poverty cycle is usually called "development trap" when it is applied to countries. Once in the cycle of low incomes, savings, and investment the inhabitants of LDCs, the barriers to development are strong. There are many cultural, social, economic and political factors preventing people from being free from the burden of poverty such as the burden of debt, and the increasing demands of the growing population. This results when poor people do not have the necessary resources to get out of poverty, such as financial capital, education, or connections. In other words, poverty-stricken individuals experience disadvantages as a result of their poverty, which in turn increases their poverty.
According to Walter W. Rostow, It is possible to identify all societies, in their economic dimensions, as lying within one of five categories: the traditional society, the preconditions for take-off, the take-off, the drive to maturity, and the age of high mass-consumption. This shows in what condition the country, First, a traditional society is one whose structure is developed within limited production functions. The second stage of growth embraces societies in the process of transition; the period when the preconditions for take-off are developed; for it takes time to transform a traditional society in the ways necessary for it to exploit the fruits of modern science, to fend off diminishing returns, and thus to enjoy the blessings and choices opened up by the march of compound interest. Then the third stage, the take-off. It is the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome. The forces making for economic progress, which yielded limited bursts and enclaves of modern activity, expand and come to dominate the society. Growth becomes its normal condition. Compound interest becomes built, as it were, into its habits and institutional structure. After take-off there follows a long interval of sustained if fluctuating progress, as the now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the whole front of its economic activity. Some 10-20% of the national income is steadily invested, permitting output regularly to outstrip the increase in population. The make-up of the economy changes unceasingly as technique improves, new industries accelerate, older industries level off. The economy finds its place in the international economy: goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import requirements develop, and new export commodities to match them. The society makes such terms as it will with the requirements of modern efficient production, balancing off the new against the older values and institutions, or revising the latter in such ways as to support rather than to retard the growth process. We come now to the age of high mass-consumption, where, in time, the leading sectors shift towards durable consumers' goods and services: a phase from which Americans are beginning to emerge; whose not unequivocal joys Western Europe and Japan are beginning energetically to probe; and with which Soviet society is engaged in an uneasy flirtation.
In case of Nepal
 First Stage: Traditional society (Nepal most)
 Second Stage: Preconditions for take-off (Nepal urban enclaves)
 Third Stage: Take-Off (Nepal--- Not yet)
 Fourth Stage: Maturing (Nepal~aankha tari mara)
 Fifth Stage: Mass Consumption Society
(Amrika, Nepal~ sapana ma pani chaina)
Nepal’s condition is very poor. As the population is increasing the demand of the people are increasing simultaneously so is the poverty. Low productivity, low income, low investment, low saving is the condition of Nepal and the vicious cycle of poverty trap is getting bigger with the timeframe.