1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...

1. Ajita 150 Years of Nepal DTM Projections...


Report on
“One and a Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”
Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma





Ajita Pokhrel





Submitted to
Prof. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Kathmandu University School of Arts



7th June 2011

TABLE OF CONTENTS

TITLE PAGE NO
Acknowledgement
Table of contents
Abstract
Authorial Context 1
Summary of the paper 3
Subject paper Context 8
Theoretical Report 9
A. Demographic Transition Model 9
B. Population Growth Theory 11
C. Population Doubling Time 11
D. Malthus Theory 12
E. Boserup Theory 13
F. Population Pyramid 13
G. Canan Optimum Population Theory (OTB) 13
Analysis of the report 15
Multiple Theoretical Lenses 16
A. Relation with population theory 16
B. Relation with Natural resource theory 18
C. Relation with development theory 21
Judgment 24
Outside the box 25
Synthesis 28
Conclusion 30
References 31

















Abstract
The report on “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” is prepared by Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, and Keshav R. Sharma for Ministry of Environment and population.
The main objective of this paper is to show the relationship between the population, development and natural resources, which is also the main goal of our course itself. The other objective of this paper is to identify the different cause of rising population and analyze where Nepal is at demographic transition model. The effort has been also made to show how environment has degraded in Nepal as a result of population growth. To show both positive and negative linkages between population and environment; theory of Malthus and Boserup are also presented.
Likewise this paper also presents the summary of four different scenario of future population of Nepal presented in paper “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” and includes the criticism of demographic transition model.









 
Authorial Context
This chapter presents the brief introduction and information of two authors Griffith Feeney, Shyam Thapa, of the paper “One and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”.
A. Shyam Thapa:
Shyam Thapa, PhD, is a Scientist with the Department of Reproductive Health and Research (RHR) at WHO headquarters in Geneva. He provides strategic, technical and management support for research in reproductive health particularly as regards user perspectives in family planning, young people's sexual and reproductive health and the prevention of unsafe abortion.
Before joining WHO, Thapa was the Director of Policy and Research for the Saving Newborn Lives (SNL) program of Save the Children US based in Washington, DC. In this position he was primarily responsible for the management, strategic development, implementation and technical support of community-based randomized control trials and operations research in newborn health and survival in 18 countries. Prior to that, he held various research and evaluation positions in reproductive health, youth and family planning with Family Health International (FHI) at both its Arlington, Virginia, and Research Triangle Park, North Carolina, offices in the US. On deputation from FHI, he served for several years as a resident technical advisor to the Government of Nepal, working with the Ministry of Health, the Ministry of Population and Environment, the National Planning Commission and the USAID.
Thapa has over 20 years of experience in policy and program development, health systems research, program planning, knowledge and skills transfer and management, capacity-building, professional mentoring, teaching/training, research and evaluation in maternal and child health, family planning, youth and HIV/AIDS, and development and utilization of evidence base. He has presented at numerous seminars and conferences and also organized and led workshops and consultative events. He has authored or co-authored numerous articles and papers, book chapters and monographs.
B. Griffith Feeney :
Griffith Feeney was born in 1943. He received his Ph.D. in 1972 from the University of California, Berkeley. Currently he is a senior fellow at the East-West Center, Program on Population in Honolulu, Hawaii. He has devised a number of techniques for making the best use of defective data













Table: Population size and Growth rate
Year Total population Pop change Growth Rate Doubling Time Analysis
1911 5,638,749 - - (Influenza )
1920 5,573,788 -64,961 -0.13 -
1930 5,532,574 41,214 -0.07 - Decline
1941 6,283,649 7,51,075 1.16 60
1952-54 8,256,625 19,72,976 2.27 31 High GR
1961 9,412,996 11,56,371 1.64 42
1971 11,555,983 21,42,987 2.05 34 Rapid fall in mortality only.
1981 15,022,839 34,66,856 2.62 26 Very H GR compare to 1991
1991 18,491,097 34,68,258 2.08 33
2001 23,151,423 2.25 32


Summary of the paper
The main objective of this paper is to examine the past and prospective demographic transition in Nepal. The fertility and mortality trends of Nepal reflect that it follows the general trend of demographic transition model. The mortality decline begins at early 1930s and there is decline in fertility rates during late 1960s and early 1990s.
Prior to 1961 only five population census was carried out in Nepal i.e. population census of 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941 and 1952-1954. Complete reports of the 1911, 1920, 1930, 1941, and 1952-1954 censuses were not published, only the data available is total population by sex. The table below shows the population growth rate data between 1911 and 2001.
According to above table the population of Nepal declined up to 1930 and then after population started to grow. However, the population of the country did not grow at a uniform rate. At the time of the latest census of 2001, Nepal’s population reached 23.1 million with annual average growth rate of 2.25 percent during the last decade 1991-2001. The various reasons for population decline in between 1911 to 1930 are Influenza, census conduction on abnormal period i.e. world war time. The rate of increase in the period 1941 to 1952/54 was improbably high in comparison with the earlier period. The population growth rate observed during the period 1971 to 1981 is found very high compared to 1981 to 1991 period. This may be attributed to the rapid fall in mortality without any corresponding fall in fertility

The above figure shows that the population has been increased between 1991 and 2001 from 46.7% to 48.4%in Terai, while it has declined from 45.5% to 44.3% in hill and it has also declined from 7.8% to 7.3% to mountain. This shows that the infrastructural facility, high fertile land and potential of economic activity has attract the people from other ecological zone to terrain which results increase in population in this area.
Likewise the population growth rate indicates that, it is also influenced by various factors such as the ecological zone, social factors like education, urban area and so on.

The above table shows that the infant mortality trend is higher in rural area as compared to urban area. IMR of urban area is declined to 50.1 from 61.1during 1996 and 2001. The table also indicates that the IMR is higher for illiterate people compared to educated people. IMR also varied according to development regions. The data of 2001 shows that IMR is higher in far western region and was found lowest in western development region.

Similarly the writer has presented the four different scenario of future population growth for Nepal which is summarized below;
I: continued slow decline
According to this scenario a continuation of the recent slow pace of fertility decline (0.45) children per women per decade over the past has results in total population of Nepal rising to over 100 million over the next century. The fertility decline will continue until replacement level, taken to be 2.1 children per women. The rate of fertility decline in Nepal is slow compared to rates of decline in Asia generally.
II: zero population growth from 2001
According to this model the fertility will fall to below one child per woman. In practical it is impossible to achieve zero population growth in short-term. To achieve zero population growth the fertility rates have to decline from 4.8 children per woman for1996-2000 to barely over 2 children per woman for 2001-2005, followed by a further decline to as low as 0.72child per woman for 2016-2020.
According to this model the future population of Nepal will reached between 40 and 60 million. The rapid decline in population results the tremendous fluctuations in the age distribution over the coming century.
III: smooth approach to zero growth
Unlike the too rapid decline of fertility in Scenario two, this model supports the idea of more rapid fertility decline. Base on this practice of fertility decline, the population of Nepal would reach to below 60 million. The rate of decline is faster than what Nepal has experienced in the past but comparatively low while comparing it with other Asian countries. The fertility decline base on his model will results No disruption of age distribution. It means those younger age groups are higher or greater than the older age group.


The above figure shows the trend of fertility decline and population growth in Nepal.

IV: More rapid fertility decline
This model implies the total fertility rates of 3.7 children per woman for 2001-2005, 2.8 children per woman for 2006-2010, and 2.2 children per woman for 2011-2015. This represents an average rate of decline of 1.8 children per woman per decade. With modest disruption in age distribution the Nepal population rises to 40 million. It can achieve only through reducing the family size and increasing the age of child bearing.






Subject Paper context
The demographic transition in Nepal shows that Nepal falls under stage two of demographic transition model where there birth rate is constant and mortality rate starts to decline. The establishment of health post and awareness program raised by government about importance of hygiene and proper diet has helped to reduce the mortality rate of Nepal.

Theoretical category
There is deep relation between the theory of population, natural resources and development. The high or low population growth has some link with the environmental degradation and the growth of economy, technology development.
Population dynamics, including growth rates, age structure, fertility and mortality, migration and more, influence every aspect of human, social and economic development.
In summary the paper deals with the fertility rate and the future population of Nepal, in four different scenarios. Hence it is directly associated with the population theory. The various kinds of demographic theory are discussed in this chapter.
A. Demographic transition model:
It is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The four different characteristics of demographic transition model are mentioned below:
1. Stage I
It is associated with pre Modern times, and is characterized by high birth and death rates (30-50 per thousand). Their approximate balance results in only very slow population and growth. Growth rates would have been less than 0.05%, resulting in long doubling times of the order of 1-5,000 yrs.
Death rates were very high at all times in this stage for a various reasons like lack of knowledge of disease prevention and cure, infectious diseases such as influenza, scarlet fever, or plague, the lack of clean drinking water and efficient sewage disposal, and poor food hygiene; occasional food shortages and so on. Similarly reasons of high births are associated with high rate of infant mortality and lack of security of life.

2. Stage II
Stage two sees a rise in population caused by a decline in the death rate while the birth rates are constant or rises slightly. It represents the characteristics of early industrialized society. The decline in the death rate at this stage is due initially to two factors:
• First, improvements in food supply brought about by higher yields as agricultural practices were improved in the Agricultural Revolution of the 18th.C.
• Second, there were significant improvements in public health that reduced mortality, particularly in childhood.
A consequence of the decline in mortality in Stage Two is an increasingly rapid rise in population growth as the gap between deaths and births grows wider. The growth which is not due to an increase in fertility but to a decline in deaths results change in the age structure of the population.
3. Stage III
At this stage both Birth rate and death rate continues to fall which results in stabilization in population growth. This model represents characteristics of developed industrialized nations. The reasons for continuous decline in death rates at these stages are:
• Increasing urbanization changes the traditional values placed upon fertility and the value of children in rural society.
• Increasing female literacy
• Preference given to build the carrier of women.

4. Stage IV
At this stage both birth rate and death rate are low. It represents the characteristics of post industrial society.


5. Stage V
At these stage death rates is higher than the birth rates. The highly developed nation like Japan is facing this problem.

B. Population Growth Theory:
The rate of national Population growth is expressed as a percentage for each country, commonly between about 0.1% and 3% annually. There is two kind of population growth theory.
i. natural growth theory
Natural growth represents the births and deaths in a country's population and does not take into account migration.
ii. overall growth theory
The overall growth rate takes migration into account.
The growth rate of a country provides demographers and geographers with a good contemporary variable for current growth and for comparison between countries or regions. For most purposes, the overall growth rate is the more frequently utilized.

C. Population Doubling Time:
The growth rate can be used to determine a country or region or even the planet's "doubling time." It tells us how long it will take for a country's current population to double. This length of time is determined by dividing the growth rate into 70. The number 70 comes from the natural log of 2, which is .70.
The world's current (overall as well as natural) growth rate is about 1.3%, representing a doubling time of 54 years. We can expect the world's population of 6 billion to become 12 billion by 2054 if current growth continues. The world's growth rate peaked in the 1960s at 2% and a doubling time of 35 years
Most European countries have low growth rates. In the United Kingdom, the rate is 0.2%, in Germany its 0.3%, and in France, 0.4%. German and other European countries' natural growth rate is actually negative (on average, women in Germany give birth to 1.5 children, which is below the number to yield zero population growth, approximately 2.1 children). Germany's natural growth rate of -0.1 cannot be used to determine doubling time because the population is actually shrinking in size. It's immigration that brings Germany's overall growth rate up to 0.3%, with a doubling time of about 233 years).
Many developing Nations like Asian and African countries have high growth rates. Afghanistan has a current growth rate of 3.5%, representing a doubling time of 20 years. If population growth continued at the same rate for the following century, by 2200 Afghanistan's population would be 26.6 billion, which is more than four times the current world population. In Nepal with the growth rate of 2.1% it would take 25 years for doubling.
The population growth and doubling time of high developed and developing nation’s shows that it follow the characteristics of demographic transition model. The negative growth rate of Germany a developed nation s falls under the fifth stage where death rate is higher than the birth rate. The country like Nepal and Afghanistan falls under second stage where birth rate is very high and hence the population growth rate is too high.

D. Malthus theory:
The essay on the principle of population an important work of Malthus is a landmark in the history of population studies. The theory argue that the tendency of the population to grow faster in relation to its means of subsistence has led to human misery and placed several obstacles in the path of human progress.
In Malthusian theory he has stated that the population grows in a geometric ration and the other means of subsistence in arithmetic whose ultimate end would be poverty. His theory stated that there would be food shortage due to population growth. To minimize the risk of food insecurity people start deforestation and cultivate on those land.

E. Boserup theory
Boserup is also known as the critiques of Malthus theory. According to her theory population growth always do not have negative consequences. In Boserup’s theory agricultural methods depend on the size of the population. She argued that in times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the excess population will not die as mentioned in Malthus theory. Instead in those times of pressure, people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc. It means that for survival and to meet the increasing demand of food the people identify new technology and shift from traditional agricultural practices which were mainly based on hand tools to the modern farming system.
Hence this theory clearly stated that there exist the positive relation between population and development. To achieve the economic growth and to shift from traditional agriculture to industrial nations there must be population growth
F. Population pyramid:
A Population Pyramid is a graph that shows a country’s population by age and gender. The shape of the pyramid tells us about a country’s growth rate and dependency ratio. Population pyramids have the youngest age cohort at the bottom and females on one side and males on the other. Each age-gender group is represented as a % of the total population or in thousands of people.
Under the fertility decline ratio of scenario two there would be distortion in age distribution. Hence there would be longer bar at the top of pyramid as the result of decline in fertility rate and increase in life expectancy of people.
G. Canan Optimum population theory
According to Canan the propounded of this theory population must grow up to certain desired level after which further growth is harmful. The two important principles of this theory are:
1. when there is an increase in population than the ratio between the total population and the working population remains almost constant.
2. When at a point of time the population of a country increases the natural resources capital and technical knowhow do not change with the result that after sometime the law of diminishing returns begins to operate. This law provides that for maximum production all the sources of production should be combined in that proper ratio than it shall not be possible to have maximum production.
This theory supports the idea of both the Malthus and Boserup. According this theory the growth of population is necessary at the beginning phase of development activity. But when development reaches to its height the overpopulation create the problem as mentioned by the Malthus theory of population. It leads the problem of environmental crisis.

Analysis of the report
The distortion of age as results of rapid fertility decline will have negative impacts on the economic and social growth of the nation. So it is difficult to answer which scenario is more applicable or desirable in case on developing nations like Nepal.


3. 7

Here in this case we chose the scenario four as more appropriate as we can see in above figure that there is less age distortion caused by this model which can be tolerated by the society. Relatively smaller number of children and the relatively larger number of persons at working age during the first several decades might be salutary, and the overhang of older persons in the more distant future is manageable.
At the current slow rate of fertility rate decline in Nepal population will increase to hundred million over this century.




Multiple Theoretical Lenses Analysis
The main objective of our course is to enhance the knowledge and understanding of the important relationships between population, development and development.
We cannot study the theory of development, population and natural resources in isolation. They are strongly connected with each other. The change in one factor like increase in population has great impact in environment and strong relation with economic and social development.
The main aim of this section is to analyze and examine whether or not there is a relationship between the concepts developed by writer on “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal” with different theory of population, natural resources and environment. This chapter is divided into three sections. Where the first part deal with the population theory, second with natural resources theory and a final section on development theory.
A. Relation with population theory:
The type of linkage between the concepts developed by author on the report with the population theory has almost covered in the theoretical chapter of this report. The few theory and concepts on population which has indirect relation with this chapter is discussed here.
I. The Population Bomb
The Population Bomb was a best-selling book written by Paul R. Ehrlich and his wife in 1968. While analyzing the population bomb theory it matched with idea of Malthus. He too emphasized in the need of population control. In his book he shows the inverse relation between the population growth and food security. It warned of the mass starvation of humans in the 1970s and 1980s due to overpopulation as well as other major societal upheavals, and advocated immediate action to limit population growth. It alerted people to the importance of environmental issues and brought human numbers into the debate on the human future.
Ehrlich argues that as the existing population was not being fed adequately, and it was growing increasing rapidly it was unreasonable to expect sufficient improvements in food production to feed everyone. He further argued that the growing population placed increasing strains on all aspects of the natural world.
In answer to the question, "what needs to be done?" he wrote, "We must rapidly bring the world population under control, reducing the growth rate to zero or making it negative. Conscious regulation of human numbers must be achieved. Simultaneously we must, at least temporarily, greatly increase our food production
He made the future prediction where he stated that nothing can prevent famines in which hundreds of millions of people will die during the 1970s, and that there would be a substantial increase in the world death rate. Although many lives could be saved through dramatic action, it was already too late to prevent a substantial increase in the global death rate. However, in reality the global death rate has continued to decline substantially since then, from 13/1000 in 1965–74 to 10/1000 from 1985–1990. Meanwhile the population of the world has more than doubled, while calories consumed/people have increased 24%.
The failure of his theory forced us to look at the theory of Boserup once again. Why people don’t die due to starvation though the population is increasing. Is it really supporting the idea of Boserup, where she argued that for the survival people change the technology and adopts the modern technology which helps to increase the agricultural products and transfer the society from traditional to modern? The answer is yes.
II. Political ecology:
In critiques of population bomb and Malthus theory the Nobel Prize, Amartya Sen winner put forward the new idea and relationship between population and food security. In his view the food security is not the problem caused by population growth. The root cause of famine has been political instability. He argued that nations with democracy and a free press have virtually never suffered from extended famines. However, most epidemiologists, public health physicians and demographers identify corruption as the chief cause of malnutrition, not "overpopulation".
III. Neo-Malthusianism theory
It also supports the idea of Malthus theory. In Malthus theory there has been shown the direct relationship between the environmental degradation and increasing population. But in Neo-Malthusianism theory the direct relationship between increase in population and income has shown. As a result people have cash in hand they again start to demand the high class luxurious goods which ultimately force in environmental degradation. Example As we all know the income of people of Kathmandu is higher to compare that of rural area. The high income of this urban group results in demand for more housing home, vehicle to travel, land to dispose daily waste. Hence we can say there is positive relationship between the income and the land degradation in case of Nepal.

B. Relation with Natural resources theory:
This section deals with the various concepts and theory such as IPAT, Himalayan degradation theory, agricultural biodiversity, carbon dioxide rise and climate change (paper by Surendra P. Singh) and sustainable development.
I. IPAT
IPAT is an accounting identity stating that environmental impact (I) is the product of three terms: 1) population (P); 2) affluence (A); and 3) technology (T). It is stated I = P x A x T or I=PAT. Generally credited to ecologist Paul Ehrlich, the IPAT formulation arose from a dispute in the early 1970s among the most prominent environmental thinkers of the day about the sources of environmental impact.
We know that there will be rise in future population between 40 million to 100 million during next century under four different scenarios. The concept of IPAT portrays the environmental impact caused by the increasing population, affluence and technology.
As we have already known that technology will be enhanced with the growth in population to meet there increasing demands. This positive relation between technology and population growth have negative impacts on the environment. The innovation of new technology further helps to make good earnings. The increasing wealth increases the demand of luxurious good such as more vehicles, concrete buildings, furniture and so on which ultimately leads to degradation of environment.
II. Himalayan degradation theory:
Similarly the “Theory of Himalayan degradation” a thesis reports by Guthman. He supports the theory of Malthus. He has also mentioned that there is negative relationship between environment and population. Or we can also state it as, with rise population the problem associated with environment will also increased. As mentioned in the report the main cause of land degradation is increasing population. He also shows the several other impacts caused by population growth on environment such as soil erosion, landslides, hydrological disruptions, deforestation, climate change, air pollution, water pollution and so on.
So like on the report on “One and Half Centuries of Demographic Transition in Nepal”, the Himalayan degradation theory also address the needs of population control through various mechanism and the importance of environmental and natural resource conservation from future perspective.
III. Carbon Dioxide Rise and Climate Change
The paper by Surendra P. Singh on Carbon Dioxide and Climate change, talks about the pressure and negative impact as a result of population. Since it talks about the need to conserve the natural resources it has indirect relation with the demographic transition theory.
Due to climate change there is negative impacts on various sector like tourism, agriculture, melting of ice, disturbance in marine ecosystem and so on. To save the community and nations from the problem of food insecurity the paper state that the people adopts the new kind of agricultural practices and crop the new variety which will adopt and yield more with the changing climate.
IV. Sustainable development
Through realizing the cause of growing population on environment at present many development workers has emphasized the concept of sustainable development. The general definition of sustainable development is that natural resources should be used and consume in such a way that it meets the present needs without compromising the needs of future generations.
The sustainable development debate is based on the assumption that societies need to manage three types of capital i.e. economic, social, and natural. As it talks about the control of unmanageable and haphazard’s activity in the name of development. We can report not only present population but future will too depends on environment or natural resources. We must control our activity that have direct negative impacts on environment and follow the practice which fulfill the need of present population along with the population control.

Hence sustainable development concepts put human population at the core of development agenda to achieve the human wellbeing while preserving the quality of environment. This types of development practices helps to understand how the human population and society interact with the natural environment. Despite the lots of criticism this concept of sustainable development was identified as the means to reduce the negative impacts of development activity on environment and as a means to achieve environmental balance in Nepal.

V. Agricultural Biodiversity
Agriculture, the art, science and business of raising livestock and cultivating soil to produce crops, is totally dependent on genes, species, and ecosystems and the variability inherent in them. This variability, known as biological diversity provides agriculture with the capacity to adapt to changing conditions.

The agricultural biodiversity theory on natural resources is also linked with population theory. This theory follows the similar idea of Malthus about population growth and food insecurity. In detail it talks about how to increase the agricultural products to meet the need of growing population.
Human population is projected to grow from a little over 6 billion today to over 8 billion by 2030, an increase of about a third, with another two to four billion to come in the subsequent 50 years. But food demand may grow even faster, as a result of growing urbanization, rising incomes, and greater efforts to reduce hunger among the over 800 million people currently under-nourished (UN Millennium Project, 2005). Global consumption of livestock products is predicted to more than double from about 300 million metric tons in 1993 to over 650 million tons in 2020
Hence to meet this demand there should be change in agricultural practices and adopt the new technology and inputs like fertilizer, irrigation facility, improved seed and so on. Agricultural biodiversity is not only the result of human activity but human life is dependent on it not just for the immediate provision of food and other good.

C. Relation with development theory:
There are various theories on development concepts like Rostow five stages of development, modernization theory, women in development, gender and development.
I. Rostow five stages of development:
This theory is about the five different stages of development and talks about how the country transform from the traditional to high mass consumption society. The five stages present in this theory area:
• Stage 1 Traditional Society - The economy is dominated by subsistence activity.
• Stage 2 Transitional Stage (Preconditions for Takeoff)
• Stage 3 Take Off
• Stage 4 Drive to Maturity

The growth in economy with change in technology and urbanization are the major factors of economic growth. The highly developed nations falls under stage five and the developing nations like Nepal belongs to the second stage of development theory.
Hence this theory doesn’t have any linkages with demographic transition and population growth and control.
II. Modernization theory:
The basic idea of modernization theory is the transformation of society from traditional to modern through the adaptation of new technology. Modernization theorists often saw traditional society as obstacles to economic growth.
IN modernization theorist Ehrlich sees rapid population growth in the LDCs as an obstacle to development. He claims that much of the poverty found in the LDCs is caused by a ‘population explosion’ which has put too much strain on the limited resources (i.e. food and energy) of these societies and resulted in famine and malnutrition and consequent high rates of infant mortality. High population allegedly puts a great strain on the infrastructure of the LDCs and services such as education and health are stretched to the limit. Economic growth is also difficult to achieve because any economic surplus in the form of capital must be spent on feeding the population and developing an infrastructure to cope with it. If population was not increasing, such economic surplus could be invested in industrial development. There is also concern that high population puts a strain on the environment in terms of pollution and the over-use of land, whilst the need for more land may lead to deforestation.
IV. Dependency theory:
Development theory explains the relationship between the developed and developing nation. Dependency theorists argue that poor societies were better off in the past than they are today. They believe the economic positions of the rich and poor societies are interdependent and that the prosperity of high-income countries has come largely at the expense of low-income countries.
Hence this theory talks just about the dominant relationship between the developed and developing nations and the exploitation of natural resources for the economic development. Hence it has no linkages with the population theory.
V. Women in development:
The concept was emerged during early 1970s after the publication of Ester Boserup’s book called “Women role in Economic Development”. The main concern of this theory is integrating women in economic development through legal and administrative support. For this the priority is given to equal participation of women in education and employment opportunities. When women are educated they are worried about their carrier and are not only responsible to perform house hold chores. As the result of women education the women are also involved in economic activity and they don’t marry and give birth at early age. Hence there is relationship between theory of population and women in development.
Judgment
Here in this chapter the effort has made to examine whether there is positive or negative consequences created due to increasing population and what types of effort or policy had been prepared by government to address this issue. The main objective of this chapter is to choose one theory that has strong relation with the idea and concept of “one and a half centuries of demographic transition in Nepal”
In my view point the Malthus theory of population growth and IPAT is more relevant to this paper. Both talk about the negative impacts caused by increasing population. This paper also analyzes the population growth as the vital problem in the county Like Nepal. And suggest minimizing the total fertility rate and mortality rate to have less population growth rate.



Out of Box
Case of Nepal
The population of Nepal according to last three censuses 1981, 1991 1nd 2001 is 15022, 839; 18491, 097; 23077,791 respectively. The population growth rate is 2.5% and it will take 25 years for the doubling of population. Similarly the birth, death and fertility rate of Nepal is 33 - 37 per 1000, 10 - 12 per 1000 and 4-6 children per thousand correspondingly. The table below shows the population data of Nepal.
population density: 156 per sq.km = 405 per sq. mi
population growth: 2,5% ; - doubling time: 25 years
birth rate: 33 - 37 per 1000
death rate: 10 - 12 per 1000
fertility rate: 4 - 6 children per female
maternal mortality: 830 per 100,000
infant mortality (1-4 years): 64 - 90 per 1000
life expectancy: 59 years (male: 59; female: 58)
age breakdown: 0-14 years: 42% ; - 15-59 years: 53% ; - 60+ years: 5%
urbanization: 14% ; - urbanization growth: 5%
percentage of urban population in the greatest city: 27%















The population growth data of Nepal during last decade indicates fertility rate is on decline. Fall in fertility plays a crucial role in reducing the growth rate of population. The different factors like extension of education for women, positive changes in social attitude towards female, slight increase in the age of marriage for female, growing knowledge of family planning methods and willingness for its services, extension of economic activities though in a limited way and initiation of modern communication technology in Nepalese society have been helpful in bringing about decline in fertility rate. The declining trend of fertility rate, at present Nepal, is the result of partial success of population program carried out during the past plans.
In Nepal during the 1950s, life expectancy was quite low (about 27 years) due to a high infant mortality rate. However, a continuous decrease in the infant mortality rate has led to an increase in the stated life expectancy. Consequently, during the second half of 20th century, life expectancy in Nepal has increased from 27 to 60 years.
Similarly in case of Nepal the growth of urban population is expected to be high due to process of rapid urbanization coupled with extension of urban sectors. It indicates that demographic data is not only determined by the birth and death rate, it was due to rapid growth in the number of outside immigrants.
Likewise, there are two mechanisms to population ageing - 1) aging at the base and 2) aging at the apex. Ageing at the base results from a decrease in fertility; and then subsequently, by reducing mortality among the elderly. The main cause of population ageing in Nepal is a decline in fertility rather than a decrease in mortality. Control over unplanned pregnancies and early mortality has led to a greater chance that those new lives will live longer and thrive.
The government has also made the policy to control the population growth in Nepal. The main objective of eighth five year plan was is to minimize or reduce the high growth rate of population and to maintain the socio economic development and environment. The ministry of population and environment was established during the fourth year of the eighth plan keeping in the view the need of the nation, commitment of the nation in this sector, the objective of taking ahead the population program in an integrated manner as stipulated in the international conference.

As shown in scenario four the need of fertility decline to 2.2 children per women, it is not easy task for the government. Though there has been a substantial progress in reducing total fertility rate, yet no success has been achieved in materializing the concepts of two children and desire for the same into reality. In 1996, the average number of children desired by couples was about 3.3. The task of transforming the desire of two children into reality is still a challenging job.


Synthesis
This chapter deals with the criticism of demographic transition model and will also deal with the relation between the theoretical knowledge on demographic transition of Nepal with the educational field visit to Jhikhu Khola.
Demographic transition model is accused of studying the relationship between population change and birth and death rates. It fails to show the linkages between the migration and population which is also one of the causes of population change. This model is not applicable for high levels of development because the demographic models make the assumption that with the development and economic growth of nations there will always be decline in fertility level. But it is not true in all cases. It has been shown that after a HDI of 0.9 the fertility increases again.
The other criticism of DTM includes its assumption of no role of social factors like education and health facilities in the decline of fertility and mortality level. It assumes population changes are brought about by industrial changes and increased wealth. This is not true as social changes are equally important in determining birth rates, for example, the education of women. Also, DTM assumes that the birth rate is independent of the death rate. The opposite is true. When infant mortality increases, people are more likely to have more children to replace themselves.
To minimize the error on demographic data of Nepal the mechanism must be developed which focused and count the change in population due to all important factors like migration, death, birth and other social factors like education.
Here in second part of synthesis I have tried to show the linkages of the report with the situation of Jhikhu Khola. (Field visit)
The field visits to Jhikhu Khola helps to demonstrate the knowledge on linkages between population, environment and development. After taking the interview with the government staff of ward office we came to know the population of Jhikhu Khola has been increased by 5-10%. The cause was not decline in mortality rate but it was mainly due to migration of people from other wards or villages. The increase in the population of this area has negative impacts on the environment of this area. The water shade of Jhikhu Khola has trickled down. The people are facing the problem of drought and difficulties in cultivation of agricultural products. The most of the land which were used to be covered by forest has been now converted into human settlement. The other problem associated with the increasing population is air and water pollution.
Though there are negative impacts on environment of Jhikhu Khola, people are receiving benefits like development of infrastructure such as road, establishment of hospital and schools near villages through the increasing population. The access to road and hospital has helped to decline the mortality rate of this area. Easy access to market due too road is one of the most important reasons of people shifting from traditional agricultural practices to cash crop. Similarly the formal and informal women education has helped to reduce the fertility rate of this area.

CONCLUSION
Demographic transition is the central theoretical concept in the population field. As empirical fact, the transition’s nearing completion—in low mortality and fertility—is the dominant feature of global population dynamics. While the determinants of demographic transition have been explored in depth over more than half a century, far less attention has been given to the consequences of transition, aside from its immediate effect on population aging

Nepal's population of 23.1 million in 2001 census was around 4.6 million greater than in 1991 census and over 17.5 million more than the 1911 population census of 5.6 million. The main component of Nepal's population growth has been natural increase. The population size, growth and density vary according to geographical and administrative divisions. For many purposes information on the size and characteristics of the total population of a nation is not sufficient. Population data are often needed for geographic divisions of a country and urban and rural 84 areas. It is true that fertility, mortality and also boundaries changes are the contributing factors in the population size, growth and distribution by geographical and administrative divisions, variations in the net migration is also responsible for spatial changes in the population of the country. In Nepal, the geographic distribution of the population is not even but is dense in some places and sparse in others. There are urban centers where thousands of people live within a few square kilometers, and there are also vast stretches of mountains where the population averages only one or two persons per square kilometer
The Nepal is also suffering from the environmental related problems like pollution, drought, climate change, deforestation, degradation of soil fertility, decrease in agriculture land etc.
Similarly the population theory cannot be analyzed in isolation. There is a deep relationship between population, environment and development. Mainly the environmental degradation is the results of rapid development without concerning its negative impact on environment like water and air pollution. To meet the demand of growing population the natural resources are more exploited. The developed or the rich people have more control on resources as compare to developed or rich people.

References
Blaikie, P., and H. Brookfield. (1987). Land Degradation and Society. Methuen & Co., London. GTZ: Open Access or Common Property Rules. Community Based Natural Resources Management in
Becker, Gary S. “An Economic Analysis of Fertility” in Richard Easterling (ed.), Demographic and Economic Change in Developing Countries. Princeton University Press, 1960.
Bhasin, K. (1996), Gender workshop with men in South Asia: Experiences and reflections. Convergence, 1996 Vol.29, Issue 1, Pg 46.
Bhurtel, Jugal and Ali, Saleem H. 2009. The Green Roots of Red Rebellion: Environmental Degradation
as the Ultimate cause of social Vulnerability and Militancy in Nepal. Kathmandu
CBS. (2004), Statistical Year Book of Nepal, Kathmandu: Central Bureau of Statistics. Retrieved June 1, 2011, from http://www.cbs.gov.np
Economic Review. 90.4 (2000), 806-828. Gímenez, Martha E. The Population Issue: Marx vs. Malthus. Den Ny Verden. 8.3 (1973)
Guthman, Julie. (1995). Environmental Crisis and Development Discourse In the Nepal Himalayan. University of California, Berkeley
Karki, B.S. A community-managed forest in Managed, Nepal
Lee, Ronald D. 1994. “The Formal Demography of Population Aging, Transfers, and the Economic Life Cycle.” In Demography of Aging, ed. Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond”. American.
Shiva, Vandana. (1997). Biodiversity: A third world Perspective. Penang, Malaysia: Third World Network
United Nations. 2000. Long-Range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision. New York: United Nations, Population Division.

UNIT 4 DEVELOPMENT STUDENT SEMINAR OUTPUTS

NOTE: IF YOUR TEAM OUTPUT IS NOT HERE THAT MEANS I DO NOT HAVE IT; YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR GIVING ME IF YOU WANT A GRADE ON THE TOPIC.

UNIT 4 DEVELOPMENT STUDENT SEMINAR OUTPUTS

1.

Summary
On
Economic theory of Development


Date: 22nd March, 011

Submitted by: Team I
Murvica Prasia
Rijana Malla
Krishna Hari GC


Submitted to: Dr. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar

Economic growth is an increase in the total output of goods and services. This term can refer to the percentage increase in an economy’s total output, usually measured by real Gross Domestic Production (GDP), or also can be defined as percentage increase in per capita real GDP. Economic growth can be caused by long run increase in aggregate supply (rise in an economy’s potential output) and also by short run changes in aggregate demand or aggregate supply. Economic growth occurs when there is an outward shift in the production possibilities curve. This shift occurs when the economy gives higher output. The factors behind this outward shift of the production possibilities frontier are technological changes and better efficiency of the labor force and better utilization of the resources. Labor and resources are limited. There is always limitation while increasing the volume of the economy. If we take an example of a country which has two option of producing consumer and capital goods than while it focus on producing consumer food than have to cut to produce capital goods. A high growth involves focusing production on capital goods at the expense of consumer goods in the short run. But in long run producing the capital goods leads to the high production of consumer goods too. The consumerism plays important role in economic growth. Higher consumption leads to higher investment and which leads to higher production. Consumption of one is investment for another. We need to see the economic growth as exponential growth. In economy there is a rule of 72. This rule says that the doubling time of any resources is same with the 72 quotient by the growth rate of those particular resources. For example if the exponential growth rate of the laser is 4% than the doubling time of the laser production will be 18 years. Due to these economic characteristic even small differences in percentage rates of growth make significant differences over time.
The world has been divided into three types from economic perspectives: they are
 High income countries- Also called as industrially advanced countries, nation with per capita incomes substantial enough to provide their citizens with widespread prosperity or modern mixed economies based on capital-intensive production and the use of skilled labor.
 Middle income countries- Also called as newly industrializing countries, countries in which sizeable minority of the population no longer lives in acute poverty and
 Low income countries- Also called as less-developed countries, this includes 50 poorest countries in the world, as defined by per capita income. These countries tend to have low level of capital resources and use of labor intensive processes.
Sources of economic growth
The production possibilities model shows that the main cause of growth in an economy’s total real output are the stock of economic resources and how productively these resources are used. In case of Canada, One of the most important causes of growth is total output in accounting for an estimated 35% of growth in Real GDP between 1981 and 1989 is because of increase in quantity of labor, higher participation rate of women and population growth.
Growth depends on quantity of capital technological progress, the quality of labor, efficiency in production, the quantity of natural resources and social and political factors.
 Quantity of capital- it has said that by saving and higher proportion of their disposable incomes, Canadians can increase investment and accelerate the accumulation of capital resources. As capital inputs have risen more quickly than labor inputs in Canadian economy, it helps to increase amount of capital.
 Technological progress- it encompasses scientific discoveries and their application, advances in production method, and development of new type of products. It increases labor productivity by raising quality of capital resources with which labor is employed.
 Quality of labor- the productivity of labor is not only related to investment in capital goods but also to investment in human capital through education and training which further helps in improving their standard of living.
 Efficiency in production- economic growth is influenced by changes in the efficiency of production through economies of scale and reallocation or resources among different sectors.
 Quantity of natural resources- Canada’s rich supplies of natural resources have doubtless contributed to its past economic growth.
 Social and political factors-there is variety of social and political factors that can affect economic growth. Growth will be enhanced in a society that promotes competition, innovation and entrepreneurship and by social institution geared towards enterprise and profit making. Similarly, government regulation and taxes has also sometimes as inhibit economic growth.

There is different argument related to economic growth which has both positive and negative aspects.
Argument in the support of Economic growth
 Living standards- the main benefit of economic growth is itself positive effect on living standard. With rising incomes and output, more wants can be satisfied. Because of tremendous material benefit that economic growth has provides Canadian today has more pleasant life.
 Social improvement- economic growth can be channeled not only in private sector but also into higher government spending, allowing for greater expenditures in such area health, education, promotion of income equity.
 Psychological benefit- a growing economy helps to create a mood of optimism and a sense of expanding opportunities.
Argument against economic growth
 Opportunity cost of growth- it devote more of its scarce resources to investment in capital goods rather that to current consumption.
 Environmental costs- higher levels of economic activity lead to greater exploitation of the world’s limited supply of natural resources, also causing higher level of pollution and waste.
 Social cost- the social cost of growth is related to insecurity and risks that come with technological progress.

Strategies for development
The little dragons show that it is possible to break the vicious circle of poverty. The breaking the cycle involves 3 domestic strategies.

 Ensuring a stable political and economic system- frequent changes in the country’s laws discourage business activity as do quick fix scheme by government that involve public spending financial through persistent budget deficit or inflationary monetary policy. Economic development is enhanced if it is accompanied by political freedom and democracy.
 Investing in resources- for all low income countries government investment in human capital through education, health and social programs is an important component of development.
 Population control- government can use several approaches to limit population growth like, introducing voluntary birth control programs, as in China’s One child policy, providing basic n\services to poor involving health, nutrition and developing new market, enhance employment opportunity.

Similarly higher income countries can assist with two international strategies.
 Trade liberalization
 Foreign Aid
Conclusion
Historically, economic prospective has been much focused and Gross Domestic Production (GDP) and Gross National Income (GNI) are regarded as the indicator of the development. But these days such view is getting criticized. However everyone agrees that people need to produce more and sufficient consumption will keep them happy. The growing number of the population is giving pressure to produce more and comparatively cheaper so that poor can afford it.
Technological advancement and efficient use of the resources will help to give more output. In course of production there are always some limitations. While enhancing the economic development it has two choices either focus in producing the consumer good or capital goods. In short run, the choice of the producing the consumer good or capital goods may not give different output but in long run capital good production will again leads to the higher consumer good production.
Consumption is the key thing to increase the volume of the economy. Today consumption is the future investment. Higher consumption leads to the higher production and that eventually leads tot the higher production.
Today’s need of the economy is to have Pareto optimality. Pareto optimality is win win situation where many get and less loose. Economic theories are still relevant and they are for improvement of the people life. The need of the present economy is not just to increase the size of the economy but the pie is prime concern.

2.

Summary: Human Development Index & Nepal’s progress through time

504 Population and Development
Kathmandu University/School of Arts
Team VI: Bobby Ghimire, Jyotsna Kakshapati, Delon Bharati


It was the famous economist from Pakistan Mahbub ul Haq (Feb 22, 1931 – July 16, 1998) and another renowned economist from India Amartya Sen (Nov 3, 1933 - ) who came up with a notion of human development theory and derived the Human Development Indicator. Having the sole purpose of, ‘Shifting the focus of development economics from national income accounting to people centered policies’, [Haq Mahbub ul, Reflections on Human Development], the notion of Human Development Theory came into existence. The only method to judge the performance of a country until 1990 was the performance of the economy of the country or the rise and fall of the national income. How well the country and its people were doing was approximated by how well its economy was performing. Human Development Index commonly known as HDI was basically Mahbub ul Haq’s brainchild which was collaborated later by Amartya Sen with his theories of increasing capabilities and freedoms. Ranking countries by the level of human development and segregating them into developed, developing and underdeveloped countries is what the Human Development Index (HDI) does.

The three dimensions of Human Development Index (HDI) are life expectancy at birth, literacy rate and standard of living where a uniformly weighed sum with one third of life expectancy index, education index, adult literacy index, gross enrollment index and GDP is contributed for the index number. The number is a unit free index between 0 and 1. A HDI below 0.5 is considered to represent ‘low development’ where most of the nations falling under it are from Africa and a HDI of 0.8 or above is considered to represent ‘high development’ where most of the Scandinavian countries fall under it. A majority of world’s development agencies have been highly influenced and have slowly starting to shift from their basic capital and rights based approached to human development theory pioneered by Haq and Sen. The HDI is highly accredited by the United Nation Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Reports (HDRs) which covers the report of almost all the UN member states and ranks it on the basis of it.

Now talking about HDI in terms of Nepal, since 1980 Nepal has made the greatest strides in improving human development is Nepal, according to the UN’s annual Human Development Index (HDI). Report states that Nepal is the fastest movers in the Human Development Index (HDI) since 1970 and is 3rd among the ‘Top Ten Movers' list in terms of progress in health and education. Between 1970 and 2010, Nepal’s HDI value increased from 0.210 to 0.428, an average increase of 104 percent, while Nepal’s Gross National income per capita increased by 94 percent during the same period.

The report says Nepal’s impressive progress in health and education can be traced to major public policy efforts such as the free primary education for all children, legislation as far as back 1971 and the extension of primary health care through community participation, local mobilization of resources and decentralization. It also points out gap between Nepal’s life expectancy and the global average has narrowed down by 87 percent over the past 40 years.

The continuing multifaceted inequality remains a major reason for Nepal’s low HDI position. According to the Human Development Report 2010, large disparities remain between boys and girls in school attendance as well as in the quality of education between urban and rural areas and across ethnic groups. Major health challenges remain, related to communicable diseases and malnutrition. Large disparities separate regions and communicable diseases and malnutrition. Large disparities separate regions and groups, with a quasi-feudal oligarchic system and caste based discriminations continuing to marginalize some. Nepal needs to learn from its own success in health and education and apply the same determination to tackle the areas in which it is still lagging behind.



Calculating HDI for Nepal

We know,



Life Expectancy Index = 67.5 -25
85-25
= 42.5
60
= 0.708


Adult Literacy Index = 57.9 -0 = 57.9 = 0.579
100-0 100

Gross Enrollment Index = 42.2 – 0
100 – 0
= 42.2
100
= 0.422

Income Index = log (1,201) – log (100)
log (40,000) – log (100)
= 3.09 – 2
4.60 – 2
= 1.09 = 0.419
2.60

Therefore,

HDI = 0.708 + 0.157 + 0.419
3
= 0.428


Which ranks Nepal at 138th out of 169 countries in HDI 2010


3.

POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT
SUMMARY ON NEPAL’S ACHIEVEMENT
IN THE MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT GOAL




SUBMITTED TO
PROF. AMULYA RATNA TULADHAR
KATHMANU UNIVERSITY

TEAM 3:
PRAKASH BUDHA MAGAR
NEESHA SHAKYA
MANISHA BHATTRAI



SUBMITTED DATE:
22ND MARCH 2011
Background
The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) are eight goals to be achieved by 2015 that respond to the world's main development challenges. The MDGs are drawn from the actions and targets contained in the Millennium Declaration that was adopted by 189 nations-and signed by 147 heads of state and governments during the UN Millennium Summit in September 2000. The eight MDGs break down into 18 quantifiable targets that are measured by 48 indicators.
Aim of MDG
The aim of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) is to encourage development by improving social and economic conditions in the world's poorest countries. They derive from earlier international development targets, and were officially established following the Millennium Summit in 2000, where all world leaders present adopted the United Nations Millennium Declaration, from which the eight goals were derived by a group headed by Jeffrey Sachs.
Eight goals in points
• Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger
• Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education
• Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women
• Goal 4: Reduce child mortality
• Goal 5: Improve maternal health
• Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases
• Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability
• Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development

MDGs originated from the Millennium Declaration produced by the United Nations. The Declaration asserts that every individual has the right to dignity, freedom, equality, a basic standard of living that includes freedom from hunger and violence, and encourages tolerance and solidarity. The MDGs were made to operationalize these ideas by setting targets and indicators for poverty reduction in order to achieve the rights set forth in the Declaration on a set fifteen-year timeline.
Discussion
Nepal is one of the 189 countries committed to the MDGs, a pledge renewed in its Three-Year Plan 2010-2013. The data from MDG Progress Report for Nepal 2010, prepared in partnership between the Government of Nepal and the UN Country Team, indicates that potentially Nepal will be able to achieve most of its MDG target by 2015, except for the full employment and climate change.
The 2010 report suggests that despite the decade-long conflict and political instability, Nepal's progress has been remarkable in a number of areas, for example, people living below the national poverty line has gone down to 25%, net enrollment rate has increased to 93.7%, gender parity has achieved in enrolment for primary education, under five mortality reduced to 50 per 1000 live births and maternal mortality has reduced to 229 per 100,000 live births which is almost reduction by half in 10 years time. Moreover, Nepal has succeeded to halt the spread of HIV/AIDS.
While the progress has not been sufficient to meet the targets on hunger, achieving universal primary education, eliminating gender disparity in secondary education and tertiary level of education, achieving universal access to treatment for HIV/AIDS for all those who need it and with additional efforts Nepal is likely to achieve 2015 targets. However, the progress has not been fairly distributed from the perspective of social, economic and geographical dimension. Income inequality is continuously increasing.
Conclusion
The 2010 Report recommends to address the issue of disparity and inequality, a greater focus on reviving agriculture with investments in rural infrastructure addressing the issue of food security, create a better environment for private-sector investment, reduce trade imbalances with major trading partners, and better utilization of foreign aid.
UNDP and the other UN agencies in Nepal are actively supporting the Government in fulfilling its commitment to the MDGs. Large-scale joint programming on effective service delivery at the local level is being developed. In addition, the UN is supporting the capacity of the Government in mainstreaming the MDGs in its planning and monitoring since 2002 with the introduction of the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper. Together with the Regional Offices of UNDP, UNICEF, and UNFPA, the agencies helped to conduct training on MDGs needs assessment and costing to the relevant government staff who are involved in preparing Three Year Plan. The MDG needs assessment exercise that took place under the National Planning Commission and with the involvement of all development ministries together with preparation of the MDG progress report 2010 and training on MDG consistent macro economic framework has contributed to integrate MDGs into the Government's Three-Year Interim Plan 2008-2010. UNDP is also supporting the NPC to operationalize poverty monitoring and analysis system (PMAS) and district poverty monitoring and analysis system (DPMAS).
The 2010 MDGs progress report provided a comprehensive picture towards achieving the goals and served as the baseline for this National Plan. Also, the MDGs needs assessment exercise that took place under the leadership of the National Planning Commission with the involvement of all the Ministries helped to identify concrete strategies and resource garps to the MDGs by the year 2015.
As a result, the Government Approach Paper for the next 3 years has a dedicated chapter on MDGs. The Nepal Government has included MDGs as one of the criteria for prioritization of the development projects in Nepal. Nepal received a Millennium Development Goal (MDG) award for its outstanding national leadership, commitment and progress toward achievement of improved maternity health goal under the MDG-5.
Under MDG Goal – 5 entitled “Improve Maternal Health”, Nepal reduced the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) from 415 deaths in 2000 to 229 deaths in 2010 per 100,000 live births. As the targeted in MDG Goal-5 ‘reduce the maternal mortality ratio (MMR) by three quarters’ by 2015, the MDG report of Nepal shows that it will likely meet the target.
Reference:
1) Meeting the Millennium Development in Nepal – UNDP in Nepal.
Retrieved from www.undp.org.np/mdg/
2) Asian Development Bank, Nepal’s Progress towards Millennium Development Goals
3) Nepal Millennium Development Goals, Progress Report 2005.


4.

Development Indexes: Global/ Nepal
Presented by team 2:
Babu Ram Devkota
Prem K.C
Salpa Shrestha

World bank’s Country Classification

The Bank's analytical income categories (low, middle, high income) are based on the Bank's operational lending categories (civil works preferences, IDA eligibility, etc.). These operational guidelines were established based on the view that since poorer countries deserve better conditions from the Bank, comparative estimates of economic capacity needed to be established. GNI, a broad measure, was considered to be the best single indicator of economic capacity and progress; at the same time it was recognized that GNI does not, by itself, constitute or measure welfare or success in development. GNI per capita is therefore the Bank's main criterion of classifying countries.
Classifications:-

Geographic region: Classifications and data reported for geographic regions are for low-income and middle-income economies only. Low-income and middle-income economies are sometimes referred to as developing economies. The use of the term is convenient; it is not intended to imply that all economies in the group are experiencing similar development or that other economies have reached a preferred or final stage of development. Classification by income does not necessarily reflect development status.

Income group: Economies are divided according to 2008 GNI per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are: low income, $975 or less; lower middle income, $976 - $3,855; upper middle income, $3,856 - $11,905; and high income, $11,906 or more.

Lending category: IDA countries are those that had a per capita income in 2008 of less than $1,135 and lack the financial ability to borrow from IBRD. IDA loans are deeply concessional—interest-free loans and grants for programs aimed at boosting economic growth and improving living conditions. IBRD loans are non concessional. Blend countries are eligible for IDA loans because of their low per capita incomes but are also eligible for IBRD loans because they are financially creditworthy.

The economies whose per capita GNI falls below the Bank's operational cutoff for "Civil Works Preference" are classified as low-income economies; economies whose per capita GNI is higher than the Bank's operational threshold for "Civil Works Preference" and lower than the threshold for 17-year IBRD loans are classified as lower-middle income economies; and those economies whose per capita GNI is higher than the Bank's operational threshold for 17-year IBRD loans and lower than the threshold for high-income economies are classified as upper-middle income economies.







Nepal’s classification:

Economy Code Region Income group Lending category Other

Nepal NPL south- Asia LOW- INCOME IDA

District of Nepal indicators of development:
In 1997, the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) carried out an assessment of the development status of Nepal’s districts in collaboration with SNV-Nepal to aid the selection of priority districts for development assistance. The results were published as ‘Districts of Nepal – Indicators of Development’.
The indicators were divided into three main groups: (i) poverty and deprivation, (ii) socioeconomic and infrastructural development, and (iii) women’s empowerment.
The present study used 29 indicators divided into three main groups to develop composite indices of development. The 29 indicators employed in this study capture various dimensions of socioeconomic conditions and the level of development, including major constraints to development in each district, and portray the current scenarios for poverty and deprivation; socioeconomic and infrastructural development; and women’s empowerment.
Poverty and Deprivation
8 indicators were selected to measure aspects of poverty and deprivation: three to measure child deprivation, two to measure gender discrimination, one to measure the concentration of disadvantaged groups, one to measure marginal farm households, and one to measure food production.
Socioeconomic and Infrastructural Development
Seventeen indicators were used to show aspects of socioeconomic and infrastructural development: nine were social and health related, and eight were for infrastructure.
Women’s Empowerment
Four indicators were used to capture aspects of women’s empowerment in terms of their participation in economic activity and education.
Major findings
 25 least developed districts identified. Six of the 20 Terai districts (30%), 9 of the 40 hill districts (23%), and 10 of the 15 mountain districts (62%) were among the ‘least developed’.
 The districts common to all four combinations or configurations:poverty and deprivation; socio-economic and infrastructural development; and women’s empowerment) were identified. Eight districts – Achham, Bajura, Dadeldhura, Darchula, Jajarkot, Jumla, Rolpa, and Rukum – were among the least developed in all configurations. Most of these are mountain and hill districts in the Mid-Western and Far Western Development Regions.
Correlation
 Literacy
◦ Issues of child deprivation, gender discrimination, and women’s empowerment are more serious in those districts where the overall literacy rate is lower than in those districts where the overall literacy rate is higher.
◦ Specifically, there are relatively high correlations between the overall literacy rate and the child illiteracy rate, child economic activity rate, proportion of child marriage, gender imbalance ratio among the literate adult population, gender imbalance ratio among the non-agricultural adult labour force, percentage share of females in the literate population, percentage share of females in non-agricultural occupations, percentage share of females in primary level teaching, and percentage share of girls enrolled at primary level.
◦ Higher literacy seems to be associated with higher contraceptive prevalence.
 Roads
◦ Play an important role in the development of infrastructure.
◦ Correlation analysis showed that the density of both banks and cooperatives, and per capita public expenditure are higher in those districts where the road density is higher.

5.

Development Trap: Vicious Cycle of Poverty
Team IV
Binu Thapa, Prerana Shakya and Sambida Regmi

The cycle of poverty has been defined as a phenomenon where poor families become trapped in poverty for at least three generations. These families have either limited or no resources. It is also known as a inhuman cycle of not being able to come out of poverty. The poverty cycle is usually called "development trap" when it is applied to countries. Once in the cycle of low incomes, savings, and investment the inhabitants of LDCs, the barriers to development are strong. There are many cultural, social, economic and political factors preventing people from being free from the burden of poverty such as the burden of debt, and the increasing demands of the growing population. This results when poor people do not have the necessary resources to get out of poverty, such as financial capital, education, or connections. In other words, poverty-stricken individuals experience disadvantages as a result of their poverty, which in turn increases their poverty.
According to Walter W. Rostow, It is possible to identify all societies, in their economic dimensions, as lying within one of five categories: the traditional society, the preconditions for take-off, the take-off, the drive to maturity, and the age of high mass-consumption. This shows in what condition the country, First, a traditional society is one whose structure is developed within limited production functions. The second stage of growth embraces societies in the process of transition; the period when the preconditions for take-off are developed; for it takes time to transform a traditional society in the ways necessary for it to exploit the fruits of modern science, to fend off diminishing returns, and thus to enjoy the blessings and choices opened up by the march of compound interest. Then the third stage, the take-off. It is the interval when the old blocks and resistances to steady growth are finally overcome. The forces making for economic progress, which yielded limited bursts and enclaves of modern activity, expand and come to dominate the society. Growth becomes its normal condition. Compound interest becomes built, as it were, into its habits and institutional structure. After take-off there follows a long interval of sustained if fluctuating progress, as the now regularly growing economy drives to extend modern technology over the whole front of its economic activity. Some 10-20% of the national income is steadily invested, permitting output regularly to outstrip the increase in population. The make-up of the economy changes unceasingly as technique improves, new industries accelerate, older industries level off. The economy finds its place in the international economy: goods formerly imported are produced at home; new import requirements develop, and new export commodities to match them. The society makes such terms as it will with the requirements of modern efficient production, balancing off the new against the older values and institutions, or revising the latter in such ways as to support rather than to retard the growth process. We come now to the age of high mass-consumption, where, in time, the leading sectors shift towards durable consumers' goods and services: a phase from which Americans are beginning to emerge; whose not unequivocal joys Western Europe and Japan are beginning energetically to probe; and with which Soviet society is engaged in an uneasy flirtation.
In case of Nepal
 First Stage: Traditional society (Nepal most)
 Second Stage: Preconditions for take-off (Nepal urban enclaves)
 Third Stage: Take-Off (Nepal--- Not yet)
 Fourth Stage: Maturing (Nepal~aankha tari mara)
 Fifth Stage: Mass Consumption Society
(Amrika, Nepal~ sapana ma pani chaina)
Nepal’s condition is very poor. As the population is increasing the demand of the people are increasing simultaneously so is the poverty. Low productivity, low income, low investment, low saving is the condition of Nepal and the vicious cycle of poverty trap is getting bigger with the timeframe.

STUDENT OUTPUTS ON SEMINARS, MAR 9

1.


Summary on

Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation

Submitted to:
Prof Amulya Ratna Tuladhar
Kathmandu University

Submitted by: Team II
Team Members
Murvica Pransi
Prem Khattri Chettri
Neesha Shakya

M. Dev’s IIIrd Semester
Submitted on 8th February 2011
Summary on Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation
Biological Theory of Sustainable Exploitation is an extract from the book Principles of Conservation Biology from the chapter over-exploitation. This chapter elucidate on ‘over-exploitation’. Also it explains how population and eco-system response to exploitation, and ties this to management options. It further explains forms of exploitation and impacts on species on eco-system such as fisheries, hunting and forestry.
Biological Theory:
In order to understand this chapter it is firstly important to understand what biological theory refers to. Biological populations are defined as renewable and the concern arise why should we expect plants and animal populations to be able to withstand the elevated mortality that occurs with most of the exploitation. The major focus in the chapter is ‘when more population is reduced by exploitation, it removes competition for food, territories and shelter and lower transmission rate of disease leading to greater birth rate or enhanced survival. The tendency for such components of fitness limits population at high density known as density dependence.
To understand the sustainable and un-sustainable level of exploitation it is first necessary to ask question whether removal of individual is equivalent to thinning of population, thereby allowing the survivors to grow more quickly or survive better, or the removal occurring too rapidly for population to compensate. Hence, when the question arise ‘what level of population to be removed we must understand how exploitation can become overexploitation and need to see population growth curve.
Sustainability of Exploitation:
Sustainability of exploitation is another important concept as it elaborates how many individuals we can take from the population to maximize the yield. As in practice, it will be very difficult time to find out the exact number of species. Similarly, population will be exploited at a higher rate than recommended. So, in order to find the answer to the ‘what happens when the population is exploited at the rate that differs from the one that theory suggests should be maximally sustainable?’ And this is determined by how exploitation is managed, which is further clarified by the classification. There are three levels classified and they are Constant quota exploitation, Proportional (constant) exploitation and threshold exploitation.
Constant Quota Exploitation:
Constant Quota Exploitation depicts a situation when the numbers removed are ‘constant’ in the sense of being independent of the population size. The best example of this form of exploitation includes fishers that set quotas on the number of the fish that are caught, regardless of subsequent changes in the number of fish in the sea. There are three conditions in constant quota exploitation a) high quota b) maximum sustainable yield and c) low quota.
A) High quota – It is the situation where the yield exceeds the population surplus production capability, which may be because of illegal hunting act or population’s resilience had been over estimated. It is the condition when the species over-exceeds the high quota, species will extinct.
B) Maximum Sustainability Yield – It is an alternative and seems more sensible in the maximum sustainability yield quota. But it is very risky target as it is impossible to get precise management of either surplus production or the population. In case if the population is or at smaller than expected maximum yield the quota will exceed its surplus production and will decline to zero.
C) Low quota – It is the condition when the certain species become extinct after reaching the population criteria. Exploiting at low quota indicates the growth to a stable equilibrium whereby we have sustainable exploitation.

Proportional (constant effort) exploitation:
Proportional exploitation is the exploitation effort that is proportional to the population size. In practice, this is always bound to happen to some extent, because as plants and animals become scarce, people tend to switch to alternative species. Conservationists and resource managers encourage and force people to reduce pressures on populations that reach low abundance. The advantage of this form is that, as long as the exploitation rate is below the intrinsic rate of natural increase then all equilibria are stable.
Threshold exploitation:
The final class of exploitation strategies involves the use of population size thresholds to determine not only the rate of exploitation but also whether exploitation should take place at all. All populations are subject to random variations, for example, due to environmental variation. In the absence of exploitation, they will sometimes exceed their carrying capacities temporarily. We can take advantage of this by taking the entire “surplus” whenever the population is above its carrying capacity, but otherwise ceasing exploitation completely to minimize the chances of being collapsed.
Bio-Economics - It incorporates the cost and benefits of exploitation.
Open access and tragedy of the commons:
The “tragedy of the commons” provides an explanation for a lot of the damage that people are doing to the environment and to each other. For example, if you have a pond in your property then you will take benefit of the fishes alone but if it belongs to your neighbor’s property as well then you need to share the fishes.
Conclusion:
As explained in the introductory part the biological populations are renewable however it contradicts the notion that exploitation promotes further opportunity for growth and survival. As described in the paper ‘as population is reduced by exploitation, there may be reduced competition for food, territories, shelter and a lower rate of disease. This can lead to greater birth rate or enhance survival.’ So, here question arises when the species are decreasing due to exploitation how can we predict that due to exploitation there are further spaces for the species to grow. Hence, it shows how exploitation of one species provides space for the other species growth and survival however it contradicts the notion that exploitation the cause root of extinct of the species rather it is a space for further growth and survival of the species.


2.

Summary of

The Ecology of Order and Chaos.

Submitted to: Prof. A R Tuladhar
Submitted by: Team II
Neesha Shakya
Murbica Parsia
Prem Khattri Chettri
The Ecology of Order and Chaos by Donald Worster, professor of history at the University of Kansas, Laurence, who has written number of articles on environment. The ecology of order and chaos is a critique according to him this science of ecology has a very important part in our present day life. He argued that ecology should not be taken as an all-wise, always trustworthy guide rather we must be able to challenge the authority and moreover challenge the authority of science in general, not be quick to scorn or vilify or behead, but simply, now and then to question.

In Paul Sear’s day ecology was basically a study of equilibrium, harmony and order; and it had been so from its beginnings. However, in today’s scientific research, it has become a study of disturbance, disharmony and chaos where conservation is often not even a remote concern. Moreover, F.L. Clements called his scientific ecology as dynamic ecology which states that it was concerned with change and evolution in the landscape. Similarly, there is other influential writer who has written on the ecology. In 1953 Odum published the first edition of his famous book The Fundamentals of Ecology. He defines the ecosystem as “any unit that includes all of the organisms in a given area interacting with the physical environment so that a flow of energy leads to clearly defined trophic structure, biotic diversity, and material cycles within the system. Hence, he argued that the whole earth is organized into an interlocking series of such ecosystem. Therefore, Odum may have used different terms than Clements, may even have had a radically different vision of nature at times; but he did not repudiate Clement’s notion that nature moves toward order and harmony. In the place of the theory of the ‘climax’ stage he put the theory of
‘mature ecosystem’

Worster time and again has raised the voice especially to those who try to overthrow or try to put aside the previously overwhelming topic of ecology which focuses on the restoration of harmony between man and nature. The article by D. Worster is mainly a critique to the new science of chaos which applied to ecology. William Drury and Ian Nisbet have challenged the Odum’s ecology fundamentally. With both F Clements and E Odum, the succession has been taken to be the straight and narrow road to equilibrium. Drury and Nisbet disagreed completely with that assumption. Similarly, Gleason had argued that we live in a world of constant flux and impermanence and not one tending toward Clement’s climaxes. There is no such thing as balance or equilibrium or steady-state. Each and every plant association is nothing but a temporary gathering of strangers a clustering of species unrelated to one another. As this assault on the old thinking gathered momentum the word ‘disturbance’ began to appear more frequently in the scientific literature and be taken far more seriously.

However, Worster totally does not disapprove with this new science; the science of Chaos, the nature on which with this assumption has started to believe is fundamentally erratic, discontinuous and unpredictable. It is full of seemingly random events that elude our models of how things are supposed to work. As a result, the unexpected keeps hitting us in the face. Making sense of this situation is the task of an altogether new kind of inquiry calling itself the science of chaos. Worsters see this as the great revolution against the scientific revolution as far as of 16th Century. With this the world has become complex and difficult that it is not simply easy to put it in theories and laws.

Despite the obvious complexity of their subject matter, ecologists have been among the slowest to join the cross-disciplinary science of chaos. Whether we believe it or not the new science of chaos has now a permanent and inherent part of the world as it works now. Similarly, whether they are true or false, permanent or passingly fashionable, it does seem entirely possible that these changes in scientific thinking toward and emphasis on chaos will not produce any easing of the environmentalist’s concern. Though words like ecosystem and or climax may fade away and some new vocabulary take their place, the fear of risk and danger will likely become greater than ever.
Finally ecology today, no more than in the past, can be assumed to be all-knowing or all-wise or eternally true.

3.


Population Theory Critiques

TEAM II: MURBIKA, NEESHA, PREM: 22 FEB, 2011

Introduction:
Population is defined as a number of people in the given area, such as in a town, city or a country. The population of the world is increasing day by day resulting over-population; over-population is defined as the number of people in an area relative to its resources and the capacity of the environment to sustain human activities. There are several theories developed on population and some of the widely known population are as follows:
Malthus theory of population:
Malthus is a popular name when we talk about population, he is famous for his Iron Law of Population, in his theory he has stated that the population grows in a geometric ration and the other means of subsistence in arithmetic whose ultimate end would be poverty. His theory explains that people have a natural tendency to reproduce hence in absence of any moral restraint the population will explode leading to Malthusian Doom like Famine. Also explains that there are two types of checks which control the population. The first one is the positive checks such as events which raise the death rate such as hunger, disease and war. And the second is the preventative checks and it includes abortion, birth control, prostitution, postponement of marriage and celibacy.
A great deal of criticism has been directed against the Malthusian theory on the ground that it advocated the practice of vice as a restraint upon the tendency of population to increase more rapidly than food supply. Such criticism is without just foundation. Malthus did not advocate vice for the purpose of restricting population. But he recognized that vice does, as a matter of fact, tend to restrict population.
There are, however, three principal lines of criticism which may justly be urged against Malthus. First, he underestimates the possibilities of increased food supply. There is no ground for making the general assertion that as population increases from two to four, food supply can increase only from two to three. Under the operation of the law of diminishing returns and without changing the area of land cultivated by the given population or changing its methods of cultivation, while the labor supply increases from two to four the product could not increase from two to four, but it might well increase more than from two to three. But Europe during the past century has increased the area from which it draws its food supply and now depends in ever-increasing measure upon the Americas and Australia for subsistence. Moreover, the methods of cultivation of the soil have improved marvelously within the last century. The population of England and Wales increased in the century following the publication of Malthus' essay from nine millions to thirty-two and a half millions, and this increase in population took place in the presence of an increasing standard of living.
Second, there are other checks upon increase of population besides vice, misery, and moral restraint as defined by Malthus. The desire of parents to keep their daughters with them as long as possible serves in some cases to defer marriages. So, too, do customs which demand that the parents furnish a dowry. The feminist movement, the modern tendency to keep children longer in school, and compulsory military service, all act in the same direction. Many other checks might be enumerated which do not fall under Malthus' classification of vice, misery, and moral restraint.
3. Third, along with increase in numbers there is growth in national military and political strength. This sometimes makes it possible for a country to exploit its weaker neighbors in an economic sense, or to resist economic exploitation on the part of stronger neighbors. To this extent an increase in population tends to improve the food supply.
Demographic Transition Model (DTM):
The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson which involves the changes in population over the 200 years. It is the model used to represent transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. The transition involves four stages:
- where the population in the first stage shows high death and birth rate,
- Followed by drops in death rate and
- The birth rate along with it to the final stage
- Where both the rates are low and population is headed for a stability situation.
Boserup population theory:
This is another theory and it can be stated as the critique to the theory of Malthus. According to this, the population that grows only because it can maintain itself and that the so anticipated Malthusian Doom is likely to occur as the growing population will be able to maintain itself with technological innovations and advancements.
This theory further states that the agricultural methods depend on the size of the population and not the way as Malthus said. According to Malthus during times when food is not sufficient for everyone, the extra people will have to die. But, Boserup states that in those times of pressure people will find ways to increase the production of food by increasing workforce, machinery, fertilizers, etc. This new process is described as "agricultural intensification" and it indicates raising production at the cost of more work at lower efficiency.
As per Boserup technology has played a tremendous role in china for the industrial revolution, green revolution and biotech revolution. During this technological revolution China has qualified an era of large economic growth. The resulting technology is the best in the national context which was carried out for a period from 1978-2005 which accounted at that time around 80% productivity gains. Likewise the revolution in industrial sector helped to move the agricultural based on manual labor to machine based agriculture which increase the productivity of crops as a result it brought the change in life style of the people.
Similarly, from the period of 1945 the Green Revolution that has changed the feature of agricultural system, that really helped the food production to go at higher level to fulfill the demands of growing population. However, the new innovation and technology in the field of agriculture that helped to yield a higher production has some certain limits too, as technology is not sustainable in some of the areas and safety issues were the major concern.
The role of social institutions and politics in population growth:
Social institutions and politics of a country can play an important role in population growth. The example of Mauritius could be the most suitable for the role of social institution and politics in controlling the population growth. By making changes in their social structure they try to keep the balance in between the natural resources and the populations. Similarly the education of women was increased as a result the number of women getting married early goes down. At the same time advancement of technology in the field of agriculture has really made the country successful and independent.
Population as a Propaganda or capitalistic “necessity” as argued by Marx….
In capitalist society labor is exchanged by the worker in return for a price. Moreover, like any commodity it has a use –value and a value which is the unique characteristics of the labor. The value created by labor is simple the time during which it was exerted.
The difference between them is the source of profit to employers of labor and it is what drives the capitalist system. An employer (a capitalist) buys labor at its value. He receives from it the value it creates. If the latter is greater than the former—if the value created by labor is greater than the wage—the capitalist gains by using that labor. This difference between values, which the capitalist keeps, is called surplus value.

According to Malthusian theory population growth is the result of poverty. As stated the situation will remain more or less same though we try to avoid it. Moreover, as the low income population starts to raise their income they eventually also increase the number of off springs too. This leads to the further introduces the cycle of poverty as before. The situation is more common in third world countries. Even in the present context the third world countries live their lifestyle as they are in the poverty stage it is mostly because of the inescapable cycle of poverty no matter how much they try to come out from it. And as Malthus’ view was highly supportive of the rich, this development argument is the same for the FWC.
Finally, the first world countries want to see the third world as same than before because it’s easier to them to exploit the third world countries in the name
The FWC believe that the TWC should remain as they are so that it’s easier for them to exploit them in the name of development. Hence in the name of sustainability and ecological balance the First Worl.d are preventing the Third World from attaining the growth.

4.


ECOLOGY AND ENLIGHTENMENT

Team I
Salpa Shrestha
Krishna GC
Prakash Budha magar

Having witnessed the kind of devastation through technological embodied science, there is considerable room for doubt as to how wise were the people to have created ecological crisis and claim to have the Age of Enlightenment. This issue even becomes even more serious to ponder upon when the people of eighteenth century claim to have associated with great philosophers, scientists and other intellectuals and yet failing to yield favourable environment for the people to exist. These people who claim to have been enlightened, on the other hand, have been criticized by the ecological critics, who have identified the achieved growth by the so-called enlightened people at the expense of ecological environment. Nonetheless, its defenders also confront the issue by arguing about the problem of insufficiencies and deficient enlightenment or mastery over the exploitation of the natural resources. Some even conclude by saying that more mastery is the solution to ecological crises.

Since the inception of the word ‘ecology’ back in 1868, by Haekel, it has undergone tremendous change in its understanding and usages from different perspective with cross-cutting criticism on various different views. Some find humans on first place; others go for equity recognizing the interests others have. The understanding of the term ‘ecology’ itself varies largely. Therefore, while evaluating ecology, one can judge it either with the scientific discipline definition or in the context of social and political thought.

The defender of the enlightenment criticism would like to put forward the necessity of scientific study even though there is criticism of ecological. On the other hand, some believe (in opposition to Bacon and Descartes) ecological thought to be holistic and can be considered as the antithesis of each of reductionism, dualism and atomism.

The methods of understanding ecology has been largely criticised by scholars like Bacon and Descantes who do not agree to the fact of the claim by the pure science on ecology, which argue of analytical method through and metaphysics of studying ecology. Social study of ecology lobbies for equal rights and dignity for everything in the nature and not just anthropocentric view. The critics also point out the current ecological distribution to be due to neglecting intrinsic value of every individual.

However, the idea of criticising enlightenment has not remained untouched as well. The critics of enlightenment have criticized the idea for being insufficient radically and not knowing what knowledge is.

5.

Resource conservation and Environmental Economics

Submitted By:
Krishna G.C.
Parkash Budha Magar
Salpa Shrestha

Key arguments for Resource conservation and Environmental Economics Seminar
Natural resource is a function of physical supply, market demand and state of technology available. In other word, without proper management and utilization of natural resources, its benefit is difficult to obtain. Perhaps it’s one of the reasons why Nepal has lag behind in making the best out of natural resource. In fact, improper management and unskilled utilization of environmental resources has led to rather deteriorating situation.
The government of Nepal – after realization – has addressed the importance of natural resources management and environmental management challenges in the tenth plan (2002-2007). The importance of resource conservation has been much hyped topic with the emergence of different exploitation systems such as stability of exploitation, constant quota exploitation quota, proportional (constant) exploitation, and threshold exploitation system for natural resource conservation. Historically Nepal has been dependent heavily on natural resources for its subsistence and growth. Even today, economic growth is broader based, with consequent implications for the nature and diversity of environmental impacts. However, despite of some of some progress from a few successful policy initiatives and programs, the overall environmental conditions in both rural and urban areas are deteriorating, and, if left unaddressed, will potentially impede the country’s reform agenda and growth prospects. There is a strong linkage found between MDG and environmental sustainability. It has been evident from the studies that a success in achievement of MDG has largely credited to environmental situation- better the environment conditions its easier to meet MDG.
Emergence challenges;
Adapting to climate variability and change
Public Health Implications
Forestry and Biodiversity Implications
Agricultural Implications
Water Resource Implications
Rising population pressure on the land and a sectoral development approach have led to the deterioration of the environment. As a result policies and strategies began to address the severe problem being faced by the environment as well as human well-being. It was the third plan that drew much attention to the prevalence of environmental problems, hence emphasized the protectionist policies.
The connection between land use practices and environmental degradation is obviously not new. However, the problem has been increasing with the rise in population. Studies have clearly stated the current economic growth and development as achieved at the cost of environmental degradation. It also emphasized the role of small and medium sized industries and factories in contributing to more of natural hazards as they lack proper knowledge and practice carelessness. Right now about 38% of the Gross Domestic Production (GDP) has been being contributed from Natural resources which is also believed to be lower due to other non-inclusion of natural resource contribution. Otherwise, the scholar argues to have its contribution to even at higher rate.
However the concept of the green GDP has emerged to calculate he pure GDP without it’s impact to the environment. While calculating the Green GDP negative impact to the environment while producing any goods and services is reduced form the economic GDP. When we produce rice we use different pesticide for better rice production. It gives positive impact tot the GDP. But at the same time some spices like fish, insects can be extinct. Such loss is calculated and the impact is reduced from the GDP.



6.

DEVELOPMENT IS THE BEST CONTRACEPTIVE

Team one
Salpa Shrestha
Krishna Hari GC
Prakash Budha Magar


The question of ‘best contraceptive’ for population growth as ‘Development’ completely depends upon the kind of definition we have for ‘Development’. Development is seen from various perspective ever since it’s’ inception by American president Harry Truman in 1948.
However, its also true that the population growth has either gone down or stabilized globally in contrast to what Malthus and Ehrlich had seen a couple of centuries ago. The questions of whether development played key role for this result can’t be concluded, though it can be claimed, which is largely because of the adversely affect of development activities on human and environment. The development as perceived by World Bank (WB) and United Nations (UN) differ, and hence, the role of development to check or control the population growth can not be denied of the controversy.
Despite of the numerous adverse affects of development activities in terms of environmental degradations, ecological disturbance, the rising gap between the haves and have-nots, the development concept has been effective in terms of stabilizing Nepal’s population growth. However, development can not be understood as global panacea for contraception of growing population.
Various variables and indicators of ‘Development’ such as, social awareness, health improvement, economic progress, modernization etc. has hinted towards the positive impact in declining population growth. Nepal has experienced tremendous changes after democracy was established in 1950s, at the same time it also has been able to either stabilize or bring down the population growth.
For example, the national plans, such as ninth plan and tenth plan, where a lots of emphasis has been given to the concept of two children and easy availability of family planning related devices as well as standard material child health services to the people. Abolition of early child marriage, literacy to woman are some of the examples of how policy level development has helped Nepal undergo a tremendous stabilization in population growth.
The recent trend of population growth from 1981, 1991 to 2001 census the growth rate has decreased from 2.62, 2.08 to 2.25 respectively according to Central Bureau of Statistics. The recent ADB report has given the figure to be at 1.9 at present as of 2008. It is also evident from the study that the population growth has been associated with the development aspects of the nations. For example, the Europeans are well developed in terms of various development indicators such as GDP, per capita income, HDI etc with stabilized population growth. Whereas, in Asia, where people are far behind in terms of development is also facing the population growth challenges.

7.

Summary On

Demographic transition model (DTM)

Date: 22nd Feb, 2011

Submitted by: Team III (Devs 504)
Manisha Bhattarai
Rijana Malla
Baburam Devkota

Submitted to:
Dr. Amulya Ratna Tuladhar





The Demographic transition model (DTM) is a model used to represent the transition from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as a country develops from a pre-industrial to an industrialized economic system. It seeks to explain population increases and decreases through variations in the birth rate and death rate. The theory is based on an interpretation of demographic history developed in 1929 by the American demographer Warren Thompson (1887–1973). Thompson observed changes, or transitions, in birth and death rates in industrialized societies over the previous 200 years. Most developed countries are in stage 3 or 4 of the model; the majority of developing countries have reached stage 2 or stage 3.
The transition involves four stages, or possibly five
Stage I -Pre industrial equilibrium (Birth Rate and Death rate are both high)
Stage II –early industrialization (Birth Rate remains high, Death Rate is falling, Population begins to rise steadily)
Stage III –Developed industrialization (Birth Rate starts to fall. Death Rate continues to fall. Population rising.)
Stage IV-post industrial equilibrium ( there is both low birth rates and low death rates. Death rates may remain consistently low or increase slightly due to increases in lifestyle diseases due to low exercise levels and high obesity and an aging population in developed countries)
The human population has been steadily increasing since the dawn of the industrial revolution. The world’s population is estimated to stabilize by the year 2050. The population has distributed itself throughout the entire globe and continues to expand.
Different sets of transition
• Mortality transition
• Fertility transition
• Age transition
• Migration transition
• Urban transition
• Family and household transition

The original Demographic Transition model has just four stages; however, some theorists consider that a fifth stage is needed to represent countries that have sub-replacement fertility. Most European and many East Asian countries now have higher death rates than birth rate.
Britain
Between 1750 and 1975 England experienced the transition from high levels of both mortality and fertility, to low levels. A major factor was the sharp decline in the death rate for infectious diseases, which has fallen from about 11 per 1,000 to less than 1 per 1,000. By contrast, the death rate from other causes was 12 per 1,000 in 1850 and has not declined markedly. The agricultural revolution and the development of transport, initiated by the construction of canals, led to greater availability of food and coal, and enabled the Industrial Revolution to improve the standard of living.

Ireland
In the 1980s and early 1990s, the Irish demographic status converged to the European norm. Mortality rose above the European Community average, and in 1991 Irish fertility fell to replacement level. The peculiarities of Ireland's past demography and its recent rapid changes challenge established theory. The recent changes have mirrored inward changes in Irish society, with respect to family planning, women in the work force, the sharply declining power of the Catholic Church, and the emigration factor
Russia
Russia has been undergoing a unique demographic transition since the 1980s; observers call it a "demographic catastrophe": the number of deaths exceeds the number of births, life expectancy is drastically decreasing and the number of suicides has increased

Limitation
Like all models, the demographic transition model has its limitations. It failed to consider, or to predict, several factors and events:
One of the principal criticisms of the DTM is the questionable applicability to lesser developed countries, where the prerequisites for wealth and information access are limited. For example, the DTM has been validated primarily in Europe, Japan and North America where demographic data exists over centuries, whereas high quality demographic data for most Least Economically Developed Countries (LEDC's) did not become widely available until the mid 20th century.
The model assumes that in time all countries pass through the same four stages. It now seems unlikely; however, that many LEDCs, especially in Africa, will ever become industrialized.
The model assumes that the fall in the death rate in Stage 2 was the consequence of industrialization. Initially, the death rate in many British cities rose, due to the insanitary conditions which resulted from rapid urban growth, and it only began to fall after advances were made in medicine. The delayed fall in the death rate in many developing countries has been due mainly to their inability to afford medical facilities.
DTM in Nepal:
Nepal has a long history of census taking dating back to the early 19th century. The first modern census was conducted in 1952/54 using internationally standard concepts and definitions and the first computerized census was the one conducted in 1971. The census 2001 has counted 23.2 million which is growing at 2.25 percent per annum. The projected population of the year 2011 would reach 28.6 million.
In DTM it has shown that Nepal is in Stage 2 where it has a high birth rate and declining death rate.

What will make DTM fail in Nepal?
According to the latest PRB data, Nepal’s birth rate is 28 per 1,000 populations while the death rate is 9 per 1000 population. So the net population growth rate is 19 per 1000. The urban population today is quite low at 14%. Further, as Ritu Pantha has stated, a significant proportion of Nepal’s population is young. According to the PRB data, 41% of the Nepalese population is under 15. When these people become of reproductive age, we can expect them to increase the population significantly unless measures are taken. Given the low levels of urbanization, low income levels, insufficient industrialization, and a still prevalent tendency to see children as assets, it is likely that the population will increase.

8.

ASSIGNMENT 2

POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT AND NATURAL RESOURCES

PREPARED BY GROUP IV
BIBHOR KAYASTHA
JYOTSNA KAKSHAPATI
SAMBIDA REGMI

Agricultural Perspective Plan
1. Agriculture is a major contributor in employment and GDP of Nepal. It is primarily subsistence oriented.
2. Per capita food production is decreasing. However, production of wheat has increased. Recent data:

Area Production Area Production
Grain 2008/09 2009/10
Paddy 1556 4524 1481 4024
Maize 875 1931 876 1855
Wheat 695 1344 731 1556
Barley 25.8 23 27 28
Millet 266 293 268 299
Source: CBS, Nepal in Figures 2010

It is notable that production of cash crops like sugarcane, oil seeds and potatoes is increasing.

3. Comparing the data of 60s with the 90s, we can find that there is a decrease of considerable amount in yields as compared to other South Asian nations.

4. Greatest deficiencies in agricultural development lie in the following four specific areas:
• Fertilizer policies, not effective to satisfy demand
• Irrigation not able to provide year-round well controlled water supply
• Poor road infrastructure
• Low technological advancement

5. Irrigation has covered almost 1606224.7 Ha of land. Still 1047811.9 Ha of the agricultural holdings need the facility.

6. Agricultural Perspective Plan (APP) is a 20 year plan formulated 1995. It stipulates that a dynamic and commercially oriented agriculture has the potential to have a significant and positive impact on both increased income and the environment. This plan not only addresses the transformation of agriculture system but also the environmental problems that are likely to emerge with the increased use of fertilizers and chemicals.

7. APP is a prioritized plan with a prioritized productivity package (PPP).

• Input Priorities: Irrigation, Fertilizers, Technology, Roads and power
• Output Priorities: Livestock, High-value crops, Agribusiness, Forestry
• Targeted impact areas: Poverty reduction and food security, Environment, Regional balance
• Priority Policy Reform: In the policy arena, emphasis is put on land tenure; price policy; private sector promotion; poverty, women and the environment; and resource allocation for priority programs.
• Priority Institutions: Actions from a number of key agencies will play a definitive role in successfully implementing the recommended APP package. These agencies are: the National Support Committee (proposed), Subcommittee for the Implementation of the District Agricultural Program (proposed), Independent Analytical Unit (proposed), Department of Agricultural Roads (proposed), Agricultural Development Bank, Agricultural Inputs Corporation, Department of Agriculture and Department of Livestock Services.

8. APP Strategy:
• Technology-based green revolution to be the initial engine of accelerated growth.
• Accelerated agriculture growth to create a demand-pull for the production of high-value commodities in agriculture, as well as non-agricultural commodities, and cause large multiplier effects on other sectors of economy.
• Broadly based high employment growth to become the mechanism for societal objectives achievement.
• Public policy and investment focus on a small number of priorities, building on past investment in human capital and physical and institutional infrastructure.
• A package approach to development is introduced, which in Nepal's case would be differentiated for the Terai, Hills and Mountains, and would recognize the powerful complementarily between public and private investment and priorities, and would ensure their coordination.
• To achieve broad participation, the strategy is regionally balanced and explicitly ensures the participation of women.

9. APP recommends reorienting research and extension approaches in a way that allows realization of economies of scale in the adoption of appropriate technologies in the selected priority commodities and disciplinary areas. The identified priorities in research and extension need to be fine-tuned to suit the diverse agro ecological conditions of the country and to specific target groups such as women.

10. Research priorities of APP:

Fertilizers:
• Selecting the appropriate mix, timing and proper nutrient balance, including meeting trace element deficiencies.
• Application of manure is essential to complement the fertilizers and to minimize the adverse environmental impacts. Right balance of organic and inorganic source of plant nutrients.
• Training programs on soil science and fertilizers use.

Cropping system for shallow tube-wells:
• Figure out the effective way of realizing optimum benefits from tube wells in terai
• Farming systems research to identify suitable cropping patterns and varietal selection that promise optimal utilization of the available resources and higher returns to the farmers.
• Address issues related to increased efficiency of the entire farming system and its major components for mountains and hills.

Commodity Programs:
• In terai, it is most likely that the four major field crops - rice, wheat, maize and potato - will be the dominant crops, followed by cash crops for which markets exist, and fodder crops, increasingly popular once the drive for livestock rearing, particularly dairy animal starts picking up.
• In hills, the lead commodities are citrus among crops and dairy among livestock in all the five geographic regions, followed by a small number of subsidiary commodities from among tea, cardamom, off-season vegetables, peas, radish seed, coffee, ginger, onion seed, goats, pigs and angora rabbits.
• In mountains, potato seed, apples, dairy, yaks, sheep and goats among the lead commodities, and citrus, off-season vegetables, potato seed, vegetable seed, yaks, pigs, sheep, cattle, goats and dairy among the subsidiary commodities.

Marketing and Processing:
• Marketing and processing research should be integrated with the commodity and farming system research geared at the selected priority commodities.

11. Investment in Basic Infrastructure:
• Rural (agricultural) roads and telecommunication facilities enhance the process of agricultural commercialization by linking production areas with potential markets.
• Rural electrification is essential not only for energizing various kinds of agricultural equipment such as irrigation pumps but also to promote small agro-based industries for processing local agricultural surpluses, thus providing markets and adding value to locally produced goods.
• Construction will also create employment opportunity in the process.

12. Analytical Remarks :
• It is a long term plan formulated in 1995, since then conflict, change in government and systems must have affected it.
• Biodiversity is not addressed.
• Environmental aspects are not neglected but are also not prioritized.
• Power deficiencies in the rural areas are solved with micro hydro power projects. APP doesn’t mention about ways to meet

9.

REVISED GRADING POLICY FOR DEVS 504: FINAL WRITTEN EXAM TOO

REVISED ON MAR 7, 2011
DEVELOPMENT 504 GRADING POLICY 2011/ART


1. Attendance (15 weeks, 15 classes) = 10% of Total Grade
2. Team Seminars on Unit 2,3,4 @ 5%/each = 15%
3. Team Practicums @ 10%/each, Lab & Field = 20%
4. Individual Works
a. Short Analytical Paper, 10 pg = 5%
b. Long Term Paper, 25 pg = 15%
c. Term Paper Seminar = 5%
5. End of term, final written examination = 30%
TOTAL = 100%